The Politics Thread

hantslondoner

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If Cummings had so many reservations about Johnson, why did he enable his coronation?
TBH, for me the situation nowadays is that if you already believe Johnson is an incompetent, malevolent liar, then what Cummings says will just confirm your opinion, whereas if you believe the sun shines out of Johnson's ar*e, then you will ignore what Cummings says anyway, however true it might ring. At the moment it seems public opinion is still on average in the latter camp.
 

MattRam

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If Cummings had so many reservations about Johnson, why did he enable his coronation?
TBH, for me the situation nowadays is that if you already believe Johnson is an incompetent, malevolent liar, then what Cummings says will just confirm your opinion, whereas if you believe the sun shines out of Johnson's ar*e, then you will ignore what Cummings says anyway, however true it might ring. At the moment it seems public opinion is still on average in the latter camp.
Sun shines out of.. and ring left me with an image I didn't want before tea.
And it was toad in the hole
 

007Dale

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A council by-election in Leicester seems to have thrown up a little surprise yesterday, with the Tories gaining Humberstone & Hamilton from Labour;

Con 44% up 18
Lab 33% down 16
LD 11% up 1
Green 8% down 7

Then again, this is within the Westminster seat of Leicester East, currently held by Claudia Webbe. For those that that don’t know, she is the MP suspended by the Labour Party for alleged harassment.
 

007Dale

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The Prime Minister has today given Starmer the biggest open goal to aim at. The question is can Starmer convert the chance?

Not one, but two manifesto pledges broken today. A rise in National Insurance and a temporary suspension of the pensions triple-lock.

The justifications for both of these pledges being broken are reasonable and worthy of further discussion BUT it is a manifesto pledge broken. This is something the opposition should be able to strike back at, through this parliament and to the next election.

Starmer won’t get a better chance than this.
 

jon b

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One of the biggest pushes by HMRC in recent years was to counter people ducking paying NI by selling their services as limited companies rather than as an individual, or requiring payment through numerous cut-offs eg so called "umbrella companies".

No doubt today's increased charge will intensify the battle.
 

SteveW

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The Prime Minister has today given Starmer the biggest open goal to aim at. The question is can Starmer convert the chance?

Not one, but two manifesto pledges broken today. A rise in National Insurance and a temporary suspension of the pensions triple-lock.

The justifications for both of these pledges being broken are reasonable and worthy of further discussion BUT it is a manifesto pledge broken. This is something the opposition should be able to strike back at, through this parliament and to the next election.

Starmer won’t get a better chance than this.

I think the problem for Opposition parties is that Johnson has been given virtually the entire afternoon on rolling news channels both in Parliament and in a 'Press briefing' afterwards to make his case that the Manifesto pledges don't really count as nobody saw a pandemic galloping across the horizon. Some people are going to see that line and be convinced.

Starmer gets a brief speech making the case that the crisis in social care is down to massive Tory cuts before the pandemic and in essence they are now just trying to fix something they broke themselves.

Johnson does a good job of distancing himself from previous Tory Governments that he was a part of but if some guy mugged you and nicked £100 then a few years later his mate came along and offered you £50 spread over the next few years are you supposed to celebrate?

So don't set Starmer up to fail which is what you are doing. He's not the most charismatic of leaders which is a clear disadvantage in this age of soundbites on social media but if only people would listen to what he says. Sadly that's unlikely and a change will be no doubt be needed.
 

jon b

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Lee Anderson, MP for very much land locked Ashfield, has taken time off from not watching knee-taking England and labelling all the traveller community as thieves, to demand Priti Patel "do something" about cross channel illegal immigrants.

Under pressure from such intellectual giants Patel has decided to order Border Force vessels to take "push back" measures against boats carrying these migrants.

Given that sod's law states that anything that can go wrong sooner or later will go wrong, any Border Force Skipper trying to implement such a policy would be well advised to think long and hard about who would be the likely scapegoat in the event of a "push back" resulting in corpses floating in the Channel.
 

Swindon Addick

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I very much doubt there's really going to be any significant number of boats forcibly turned round. What I think is happening is this (and apologies in advance for an even larger amount of cynicism than usual). The Westminster rumour-mill thinks there's a Cabinet reshuffle in the offing and that Priti Patel is one of the ministers who may get sacked or demoted. That may well not be true, but lots of people believe it. I think Patel is doing this to win favour with a particular group of Tory MPs, and a significant chunk of the party membership, because at some point there will be a Tory leadership election and this may be her last chance to try to impress them.

I don't think she's particularly likely to be the next PM - Gove, Sunak, Truss and Javid all seem more likely to me, but she's definitely one of the contenders and her popularity with a certain section of the membership means she has a better chance than a lot of people assume.

Now, people's views on whether Patel as PM would be a good thing, or whether any of the others would be better, are going to depend on their personal politics. I have very firm views on Patel as an individual. But that's not relevant to what I think is going on with this issue. I need to separate whether I'd want Patel in a position of power from whether I think it might happen.
 

Steveb

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One of the much-trumpeted benefits of Brexit was 'taking back control' of our borders. Surely that means we're responsible for those who arrive at our borders. Once they've left France they're no longer the responsibility of the French.

I share Swindon Addick's cynicism though, and I very much doubt this will ever happen.
 

Belushi

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As I see it, If we had stayed in the EU then we could have invoked Dublin III, and the migrants would not have been our problem. They would be returned to the first country in the EU they had entered.

So we seem to have lost control of our borders in this case.

 

Mr. T

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As if the EU ever had any intention of applying its own rules! Long before the RN and RNLI began their ferry service across the Channel, illegal immigrants were getting into the EU, the member states hurrying them on enthusiastically to our soft-touch land of apparently unlimited resources.

And, of course, if the UK were still in the EU, many tens of thousands would still be coming in quite legally.
 

Belushi

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As if the EU ever had any intention of applying its own rules! Long before the RN and RNLI began their ferry service across the Channel, illegal immigrants were getting into the EU, the member states hurrying them on enthusiastically to our soft-touch land of apparently unlimited resources.

And, of course, if the UK were still in the EU, many tens of thousands would still be coming in quite legally.
So we have some control over our borders, sort of.

And those coming in legally, would some of them been Polish lorry drivers and fruit pickers perchance?
 

jon b

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Or people working in the health service or care homes?
 
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007Dale

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The Tories, having tipped a hat to the left with tax rises, will now be looking at random ways to appease the right. This proposal on illegal immigrants is a clumsy attempt to do that.

There is the opportunity for Starmer to make hay with this at the Party Conference.
 

Steveb

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Most migrants and asylum-seekers who reach France stay there of course. It's only the minority that want to come to the UK, usually for family or language reasons, who travel on to Calais.
 
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Mr. T

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Most immigrants and asylum-seekers who reach France stay there of course. It's only the minority that want to come to the UK, usually for family or language reasons, who travel on to Calais.
The politest way to describe this is 'naive'.
 

Mr. T

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No. It is naive. Anyone who thinks the Channel invaders are poor, weary, bedraggled asylum seekers trying to join up with their families is blinded by his naivety. They look well fed, well dressed, and are well equipped to contact their fellow conspirators already here. The ostentatious kissing of the shingle tells you all to need to know.

It's also sly to talk of proportions. Numbers are what count. There must be many hundreds of thousands of arrivals in France if it's only a very small proportion who get into the UK.

BTW, how many of those who cite potato pickers, lorry drivers and care home workers have ever done these jobs for a living?
 

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