The Politics Thread

Human Blancmange

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Very interesting result. The BBC News this morning was spinning it as being down to local issues - HS2 and deregulation of planning amongst them. I wonder if it also had anything to do with traditional Tory voters being hacked off with the direction (or lack of it) of the party under Johnson's leadership. The Tory Party of the last few years might appeal to the Brexit-voting, anti-immigration, English / UK Nationalist types, but does that come at the cost of losing support in their traditional heartlands? Does their opportunist populism of recent times sit well with their long-term support?
You've hit the proverbial nail on the head on that one, iv'e been a conservative voter all my life till brexit happened and Johnson got in but what makes it sad for me that during the last election (and for future elections to come) there was no viable opposition to vote for so i gave my vote to my independent candidate and living in docile Lincolnshire where change only happens every 200 years or so it looks like he or she will get my vote till i die.

Talking of death at least it was nice of Ed Davey to wait for Cheryl Gillian to die before canvassing Amersham for the liberal vote......oh wait he didn't and according to Private Eye the liberals have have a history of harassing dying MP's
constituents...ah the lovely world of politics where the crass is always meaner.
 

SME

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Terrible result for the Tories, interesting though the spin is HS2, I’m pretty sure it was Tory policy 18 months ago in the General Election, so what’s changed?

I’m not sure Brexit is the cause, as Amersham & Chesham was 55% leave in the Brexit referendum and has voted in the past in great numbers for UKIP.

Probably it’s local issues of some sort. Perhaps it is HS2, I don’t know. I suspect however that the good people of Amersham and Chesham voted Lib Dem, safe in the knowledge this was a by-election, with no risk of a Labour Government.

Come the next General Election, and if there is a surge in Labour support nationally, I’d expect this seat to turn back blue.
Strikes me as similar to the St Albans Liberal gain in the General Election. Strong protest vote against Tory government on local issues but if there was any danger of a Labour government the seat will return to blue.
 

Chris1963

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In yesterday's by-election, the Green Party actually got nearly three times the amount of votes that Labour did, which is remarkable. It does strike me as a bit ironic though that the Green Party is opposing HS2, given that it is a project that is supposed to take cars off the road. More of the route should have been in tunnels, but obviously that would have added to the cost.
 

Mr. T

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Isn't it more simple? A day after swanning around in Cornwall without a mask, Johnson told the country to keep theirs on for another month. The voters sent him a short, sharp message.
 

Northstandexile

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The only way I can see getting a non conservative government at a general election is either with tactical voting of the non Tory voters or better still just have one non Tory candidate.
 

Richard Rundle

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I’m not sure Brexit is the cause, as Amersham & Chesham was 55% leave in the Brexit referendum and has voted in the past in great numbers for UKIP.

I think you're reading something wrong here - Chesham & Amersham voted 55% REMAIN.
 

007Dale

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I think you're reading something wrong here - Chesham & Amersham voted 55% REMAIN.
Yes, I got that wrong, just double checked.

They did ‘reaffirm’ the leave vote by voting overwhelmingly Tory in 2017, with 61% of the vote and 55% of the vote in 2019. UKIP also picked up 2nd place in the 2015 General Election.
 

johnr

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Well quite simply if HS2 was the issue the train has left, they have left their protest very late. In my opinion it is building estates on green belt if legislation relaxes things. Unfortunately I have been around too long to believe protest votes won't disappear in a general election.
 

hamlet

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Terrible result for the Tories, interesting though the spin is HS2, I’m pretty sure it was Tory policy 18 months ago in the General Election, so what’s changed?

I’m not sure Brexit is the cause, as Amersham & Chesham was 55% leave in the Brexit referendum and has voted in the past in great numbers for UKIP.

Probably it’s local issues of some sort. Perhaps it is HS2, I don’t know. I suspect however that the good people of Amersham and Chesham voted Lib Dem, safe in the knowledge this was a by-election, with no risk of a Labour Government.

Come the next General Election, and if there is a surge in Labour support nationally, I’d expect this seat to turn back blue.
l read the locals were up in arms about the amount of new housing being built locally,l suspect your correct re it returning blue if there was a threat of Labour getting the keys to No 10 at the next election.
 

Kingsmere

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This will be reflected in a number of places, many towns and villages are being swamped by new houses, not just a few but in some cases doubling the size of a village.

Without proper infrastructure put in place it puts a strain on existing facilities. I would say it's in the greater area of the Tories proposed Varsity Arc. Cambridge / Peterborough round via Warwickshire in the North to Wiltshire.
 

Kirby Knitters

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All still quiet from Sturgeon on the disgusting behaviour from many Scotland fans yesterday in London.

Don’t travel to the North West of England was the advice /order a couple of weeks ago but nothing coming from Holyrood for obvious reasons said about thousands of 'fans' who descended on the capital ignoring social distancing rulings and don't get me started on the vile bigoted sectarian songs coming out of the mouths of many of them.

Can hardly blame Rangers fans for this one as a vast majority of them openly now detest the national side from the country they were born in due to the division the nats have caused!!

Live It Up.
 

007Dale

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John Bercow. My hero. From far-right to far-left - all in one career
I honestly thought he’d already gone Labour anyway.

As one Tory MP said. “Good riddance, you can have him.”
 

jon b

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Apparently, it was thought important enough to lead the Radio 4 News. Must be a slow news day.
 

007Dale

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There is some suggestion in the papers today that George Galloway is splitting the Labour vote in Batley & Spen, potentially letting in the Tories for a by-election win.
 

007Dale

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Apparently, it was thought important enough to lead the Radio 4 News. Must be a slow news day.
If Bercow is Labour’s big hope, things are much worse for them than I thought.
 

Steveb

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As the Conservatives have moved to right, and embraced what some would call a xenophobic agenda, they're in danger of alienating many of their core supporters in 'safe' Tory seats. They may be mirroring the problems Labour is facing by its reluctance to get behind Brexit.

There's an interesting article by Jonathan Freedland in yesterday's Guardian, about how lower earning, less educated voters used to vote Labour but now back the Conservatives. While better educated voters, who used to vote Tory/right, are now more likely to vote left, and not just in the UK but also in Germany, France and Canada.
 

007Dale

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As the Conservatives have moved to right, and embraced what some would call a xenophobic agenda, they're in danger of alienating many of their core supporters in 'safe' Tory seats. They may be mirroring the problems Labour is facing by its reluctance to get behind Brexit.

There's an interesting article by Jonathan Freedland in yesterday's Guardian, about how lower earning, less educated voters used to vote Labour but now back the Conservatives. While better educated voters, who used to vote Tory/right, are now more likely to vote left, and not just in the UK but also in Germany, France and Canada.

The better educated (ergo higher paid) voters may vote left, right up for the point they think it will actually cost them some real money (ie if there is any danger the left will win).
 

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