The Politics Thread

007Dale

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England’s results are still coming in, but whilst there have been the odd good result for Labour (mentioned above), the general picture has been one of strong results for the Tories and Greens and backward steps for Labour and LD’s.

Aside from the Hartlepool parliamentary by-election, the council results so far have seen the Tories gain control of 12 councils and pick up 236 councillors

In contract Labour lose 6 councils and 293
Councillors.

Cowering in the corner and hoping nobody notices their performance is the Lib Dem’s, who might have expected strong results mid-term and with a failing opposition. Not so - they had no net gains in councils and reduced councillors.

The Greens seemed to pick up what Labour and Lib Dems lost, gaining 70 councillors so far.

Starmer is taking responsibility for Labour’s woeful performance, by blaming and sacking Angela Rayner. Nice.
 

Sale Holmfield

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Starmer is taking responsibility for Labour’s woeful performance, by blaming and sacking Angela Rayner. Nice.
Actually, she is not being sacked, "but is being used differently because of her working-class appeal" according to a source, which is possibly even worse in terms of north-south relations.
 

Unicorn

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The Scottish results are finalised and in. The SNP were one short of the majority, but with the Greens they have a pro-indie majority of seats.

However, in terms of whether the voters of Scotland are actual pro-IndyRef2, if we look at the constituency votes, then it’s not as clear cut;

49.0% votes for SNP / Green
50.4% votes for Labour / Tory / LD

Why is that important? Well, in an independence referendum, each one vote counts equally, without the vagaries of constituencies.
It would be interesting to know what the original agreement between Scotland and England on which the 1707 Act of Parliament was based actually said.
If this goes as far as the Supreme Court that would be very significant.
 

hamlet

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They also need to get away from supporting symbolism.
Any person who can not find work or is poorly paid. Any kid who does not have enough to eat. There are many.
Well i fail to see how chucking a statue of some bloke most people have never heard of into Bristol harbour helped.
The next morning the kids were still hungry.
I know that was BLM but to me its part of the same mentality.
Worrying about the past which can not be changed whilst failing to address the problems of today.
The resignation of the shadow defence minister yesterday and his letter of explanation was very accurate explaining how the Labour party has lost its focus.

It would be interesting to know what the original agreement between Scotland and England on which the 1707 Act of Parliament was based actually said.
If this goes as far as the Supreme Court that would be very significant.
So would be withdrawing the Barnett Formula
 

jon b

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It would be interesting to know what the original agreement between Scotland and England on which the 1707 Act of Parliament was based actually said.
If this goes as far as the Supreme Court that would be very significant.
Only a tiny part of the population had the vote in 1707. It would be well nigh impossible to try to base a defence of the union on anything agreed by the then privileged few.
 
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jon b

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Cowering in the corner and hoping nobody notices their performance is the Lib Dem’s, who might have expected strong results mid-term and with a failing opposition. Not so - they had no net gains in councils and reduced councillors.

The Greens seemed to pick up what Labour and Lib Dems lost, gaining 70 councillors so far.
The demise of the Lib Dems is potentially bad news in the long term for the Conservatives as the "progressive" left of centre vote has previously been split between Labour and Lib Dems.

So, unless the Greens are becoming a credible option, when the Conservatives suffer the inevitable downturn in popularity the Starmer led Labour Party should be the beneficiaries.
 

Unicorn

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Only a tiny part of the population had the vote in 1707. It would be well nigh impossible to try to base a defence of the union on anything agreed by the then privileged few.
I do not really agree with that.
Firstly i am not trying to suggest a basis to defend the Union. Quite the opposite.
If Sturgeon ever did go to the Supreme court it would be for the right to hold a referendum every 7 years giving them the same rights as the people of Northern Ireland. This is a constant theme in Parliament every time Ian Blackford speaks. Why Northern Ireland and not us.
Surely the fact that in 1707 the vast majority of people were not asked what they thought is a basis to question the Union at least to the point of holding referendums if the public mood justified one.
The Act itself must be realms of clauses and sub clauses and i find it hard to believe that the rich and powerful of Scotland or England went along with this without some reference to a mechanism to get out of it.
And then there are countless subsequent Acts of Parliament which might have to be considered before a ruling was given.
I do realise if it did end up before the Supreme Court it is far from certain who would take who there.
 
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prorege

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The results are in and the dust is settling. So what do the Scottish Parliament election results tell us?

Firstly, the headline outcome with some news media was that the SNP failed to gain an overall majority. That is quite misleading. Pro-Independence parties do have an overall majority of 72-57 in the Parliament. Both the SNP (+1) and the Greens (+2) increased their representation.

Some other points to consider:

If this had been held on a Westminster-system basis then the outcome would have been SNP 62, Conservative 5, Lib Dem 4 and Labour 2. Thankfully Scotland employs a compensatory system using the List Votes to balance the Parliament on the basis of the popular vote so we are not the one-party state that we would be under Westminster rules.

Both Labour and Conservative saw big increases in vote in some areas and big decreases in others. This had nothing to do with their own policies as such – it was simply a case of tactical voting by Union supporters to get behind whichever candidate they thought could mount the strongest challenge to the SNP. It failed – no SNP held constituencies fell to Another party, and one Labour-held constituency fell to the SNP. The election was a referendum in all but name – Indy v Union.

The turnout was the highest ever for a Scottish Parliament election. Considering it was snowing and sleeting across Scotland and people were having to queue outside polling stations due to COVID restrictions, this was remarkable. The extension of the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds, foreign nationals resident in Scotland and short term prisoners will have helped boost turnout as all were more likely to use their vote than the general public.

Alba failed miserably despite some high profile supporters. I believe that Alex Salmond is simply too poisonous to be electable. The Greens did benefit from an increase in List votes from pro-Independence voters but not as much as had been expected. If another 100,000 voters who went for SNP / SNP had gone SNP / Green, then the Greens would have taken around five more seats. I thought more people would see this but I over-estimated the electorate’s ability to think outside the box.

The Lib-Dems, with just 4 MSPS this time, have had a disaster. A party needs 5 MSPs to be regarded as a “Main Party”. The Lib-Dems lose their automatic right to a question at FMQs and lose their only seat on some major Parliamentary committees.

Two significant firsts in terms of representation in the SP were achieved – the election of a permanent wheelchair user and the election of an ethnic minority woman.

There were too examples of far-right publicity stunts which backfired spectacularly. Nicola Sturgeon faced up to Jayda Fransen in the street, called er a “racist and a fascist” and then thanked her constituents for casting a mere 46 votes for her. The “Liberal” who accosted Hamza Yousef about his ethnicity was chased by all the main-stream candidates and is now subject to a police enquiry into a hate crime.

Moving forward, what happens now?

Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly said that there will be an independence referendum during the life of this parliament but not until the pandemic is over.

The country is split pretty-much 50-50 on independence at present. Sturgeon will be happy to leave it for a few years in the hope that she will have a better chance of winning. This will anger some of the more extreme amongst the SNP who do not see the bigger picture.

Boris Johnston could call the SNPs bluff by granting a referendum immediately. That might be his best hope of stopping independence. As we know he doesn’t like making decisions so this outcome is unlikely.

The Scottish Parliament will pass a motion calling for a Section 30 order to be granted, allowing for a referendum. Once this is refused the matter will move to Court. Constitutional experts believe that the letter of the law will back the Westminster position. This will place the Government / Courts against the will of the Scottish people. Anyone who understands the Scottish psyche will know that will simply bolster the independence cause rather than drawing a line under it.

The sensible way forward would be for the UK government and the devolved administrations to re-write the devolution settlement to allow the devolved administrations to call a referendum provided certain conditions were met. These would presumably be a pro-referendum majority in the devolved parliament, and perhaps a 50% popular vote threshold for pro-Indy parties in either a devolved parliament election or a “referendum on a referendum”. There could also be a proviso that at least 10 years lapse between referendums.

This would circumvent the constitutional crisis that would be caused when the Supreme Court denies the will of the people of Scotland.

I see mention of the wording of the 1707 Act mentioned earlier in this thread. That is simply not relevant to where we are now. However, it would be typical Westminster style “democracy” to try and apply archaic legislation to contemporary problems – it would be another own goal in public perception terms by Westminster if they took that line. Likewise, the pro-Indy side would be wise not to try and find clauses from 300 years ago to justify their stance.

A fascinating few days have just elapsed and an equally fascinating few years will follow.
 

Unicorn

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To clarify.
I was not suggesting that anything from the 1707 act would be used by either side.
I am fairly sure if it went before the Supreme Court that they would consider every piece of legislation from day one.
And that act is day one.
 

007Dale

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These would presumably be a pro-referendum majority in the devolved parliament, and perhaps a 50% popular vote threshold for pro-Indy parties in either a devolved parliament election or a “referendum on a referendum”.

Interesting that the threshold you suggest wasn’t met in this election, at least not from the constituency vote (pro Indy 49.0%).

This, I suspect, will be one of the justification’s for denying a vote.

I don’t disagree with you by the way, that a denial will harden the resolve in Scotland. But it’s also clear the the Pro Indy people’s won’t ever accept once-in-a-generation votes. They’ll always be some reason to argue for it sooner.

Quite frankly, on the basis of the uncertainty it creates in the whole of the UK, as an Englishman, I’m pro Scottish Independence - the sooner the better.
 

Unicorn

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Interesting that the threshold you suggest wasn’t met in this election, at least not from the constituency vote (pro Indy 49.0%).

This, I suspect, will be one of the justification’s for denying a vote.

I don’t disagree with you by the way, that a denial will harden the resolve in Scotland. But it’s also clear the the Pro Indy people’s won’t ever accept once-in-a-generation votes. They’ll always be some reason to argue for it sooner.

Quite frankly, on the basis of the uncertainty it creates in the whole of the UK, as an Englishman, I’m pro Scottish Independence - the sooner the better.
This once in a generation ? Was that just a remark by Cameron.
However as i said earlier Blackford says on a regular basis if Northern Ireland can have one every 7 years why can't we.
I also am pro Scottish independence. Pro English independence really.
I live in Canterbury.
The Westgate Tower was still flying the Union flag on St Georges day.
Its us who need to get our sense of identity back. The Scots still have theirs.
 

prorege

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Interesting that the threshold you suggest wasn’t met in this election, at least not from the constituency vote (pro Indy 49.0%).
But on the List vote, the 50.1% of the votes were pro-independence. It could be argued that the List vote is a better indicator that the Constituency vote where personal loyalties and affiliations may come into it.

Either way, it is very close.
 

LeedsPhil

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I voted tactically on both ballots.
I have previously shared on here my experience that (some/most/all?) SNP supporters are bigoted England-haters, rather than just pro-Scottish. Which would be classified as racism, if we were of a differnt skin tone.
So, a turkey did not vote for Christmas.

My lad (now living up here with me) also voted tactically, but in the opposite sense. He might be in a small minority, but even though he supports the Union he believes that Scotland should not be denied the right to a referendum, so he voted SNP+Green.
A referendum in which he would vote No.
His masters degree is in Politics & Economics - he's more intelligent than his Dad!

There might not be many like him about, but it shows that even if there were to be an imminent referendum, the outcome would probably be less Yes than the simple percentages from this election would imply.
And therefore probably a No outcome.
Which Nicola (also an intellegent person) knows. It will be fascinating to see her pretending to want a referendum a.s.a.p., whilst actually wanting to wait.
 

Unicorn

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I voted tactically on both ballots.
I have previously shared on here my experience that (some/most/all?) SNP supporters are bigoted England-haters, rather than just pro-Scottish. Which would be classified as racism, if we were of a differnt skin tone.
So, a turkey did not vote for Christmas.

My lad (now living up here with me) also voted tactically, but in the opposite sense. He might be in a small minority, but even though he supports the Union he believes that Scotland should not be denied the right to a referendum, so he voted SNP+Green.
A referendum in which he would vote No.
His masters degree is in Politics & Economics - he's more intelligent than his Dad!

There might not be many like him about, but it shows that even if there were to be an imminent referendum, the outcome would probably be less Yes than the simple percentages from this election would imply.
And therefore probably a No outcome.
Which Nicola (also an intellegent person) knows. It will be fascinating to see her pretending to want a referendum a.s.a.p., whilst actually wanting to wait.
She will use the pandemic to not call for an immediate referendum.
It a legitimate reason anyway.
There will be a time for it and the longer Boris is in charge the greater likelihood of him pissing the Scots off .
But at this moment in time Boris is fireproof.
Interesting the first part of your post. I have met Rangers supporting Unionist who had no time for the English.
Hard to figure being passionate about a union with people you do not like.
 
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MattRam

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She will use the pandemic to not call for an immediate referendum.
It a legitimate reason anyway.
There will be a time for it and the longer Boris is in charge the greater likelihood of him pissing the Scots off .
But at this moment in time Boris is fireproof.
Interesting the first part of your post. I have met Rangers supporting Unionist who had no time for the English.
Hard to figure being passionate about a union with people you do not
 

MattRam

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In Amber Valley District elections Labour lost 9 wards out of 15 to the Conservatives.
The outgoing Labour District Leaders take
'The voters let us down'
 

Lord Lucan

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There might not be many like him about, but it shows that even if there were to be an imminent referendum, the outcome would probably be less Yes than the simple percentages from this election would imply.
And therefore probably a No outcome.
Which Nicola (also an intellegent person) knows. It will be fascinating to see her pretending to want a referendum a.s.a.p., whilst actually wanting to wait.
Indeed.
Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly said that there will be an independence referendum during the life of this parliament but not until the pandemic is over.
When will she declare the pandemic "is over" ? It certainly seemed last year that she was advocating a 'zero-covid' ending, not sure if she still is. Unlikely zero-covid will occur in the life of the parliament - serious scientists have opined that such a position will "never" be reached.
 

007Dale

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A late bit of (rare) good news for the Lib Dem’s , when they managed to snatch a St Albans majority by 1 seat.

St Albans is a rarity amongst the Home Counties (I lived there for 15 years and still leave close by in Welwyn). It’s conservative with a small ‘c’.

In the time I’ve lived in the area it’s had MP’s from all three major parties and the council has rotated between LD, Tories and NOC.

One of the few non-metropolitan areas of England that was staunch Anti-Brexit, there was a concerted effort to get the Lib Dem’s elected in 2019. I spoke with numerous people in St Albans who (are amongst the highest average earners in the country) that said that Corbyn winning in 2019 would be an absolute nightmare. I challenged as to why they then voted LD and they said, they knew the rest of the country would sort that out for them.

I’d conclude that essentially St Albans is a place that like to have a social conscience - so long as it doesn’t cost them any money.
 

jon b

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The results are in and the dust is settling. So what do the Scottish Parliament election results tell us?

Firstly, the headline outcome with some news media was that the SNP failed to gain an overall majority. That is quite misleading. Pro-Independence parties do have an overall majority of 72-57 in the Parliament. Bother points to consider:

If this had been held on a Westminster-system basis then the outcome would have been SNP 62, Conservative 5, Lib Dem 4 and Labour 2. Thankfully Scotland employs a compensatory system using the List Votes to balance the Parliament on the basis of the popular vote so we are not the one-party state that we would be under Westminster rules.
It is comical how Tory media has tried to label the outcome for the SNP as failure.

If my football team were as big failures as the SNP they'd be preparing for life in the Champions League rather than slinking back into the Championship.
 

hamlet

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Interesting that the threshold you suggest wasn’t met in this election, at least not from the constituency vote (pro Indy 49.0%).

This, I suspect, will be one of the justification’s for denying a vote.

I don’t disagree with you by the way, that a denial will harden the resolve in Scotland. But it’s also clear the the Pro Indy people’s won’t ever accept once-in-a-generation votes. They’ll always be some reason to argue for it sooner.

Quite frankly, on the basis of the uncertainty it creates in the whole of the UK, as an Englishman, I’m pro Scottish Independence - the sooner the better.
Yes she's needs to hold her independence vote in England she'd win by a landslide in my opinion.ln Scotland a win isn't nailed on there are a lot of sensible people that look at the bigger picture beyond what seems like her obsessive dislike of everything English,but as always time will out.
 

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