Nonleague Projections 2020/21

leohoenig

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With the news yesterday regarding promotion/relegation from the National League and also depending on the play-off go ahead -

If 3 go down from the National League - Chorley and Fylde would come into the North, Ebbsfleet into the South and i'm sure someone would have to switch to the South?

If 2 Go down - Chorley and Fylde - then maybe 2 teams would have to switch to the South to fill that up?

If 1 goes down - Chorley - then i'm not sure what would happen, maybe nothing?

Of course this is only what i think, who knows how things will turn out
No, the assumption has to be that one more team is promoted than relegated, which leaves one of the divisions short of a team.

I am not sure under which circumstances two go down - unless no team agrees to the play-offs in one of the divisions?

So we either have one down (Chorley) and the two champions up, or three down (Chorley, Fylde and Ebbsfleet) and two up from each of North and South.

Both these scenarios leave the North at full complement, but the South short by one. There is no reason for transfer unless the FA Leagues committee decide to fill that gap with a Northern team

If there is a transfer, then Gloucester, who should be returning home are a likely candidate, with Brackley as the other possibility.
 

Claret&BluePixels

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No, the assumption has to be that one more team is promoted than relegated, which leaves one of the divisions short of a team.

I am not sure under which circumstances two go down - unless no team agrees to the play-offs in one of the divisions?

So we either have one down (Chorley) and the two champions up, or three down (Chorley, Fylde and Ebbsfleet) and two up from each of North and South.

Both these scenarios leave the North at full complement, but the South short by one. There is no reason for transfer unless the FA Leagues committee decide to fill that gap with a Northern team

If there is a transfer, then Gloucester, who should be returning home are a likely candidate, with Brackley as the other possibility.
Gloucester would be more likely than Brackley if im honest, that and im pretty sure the FA already confirmed that gap will not be filled because they already voided Step 3. So yeah, im fully expecting Gloucester to be transferred and the North to run one club short at 21

The only way I can see the FA going back on the no promotion from Step 3 is if the number of clubs in the NL North/South reach a ridiculous shortage
 

leohoenig

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Just seen a tweet from the Somerset League, wishing Shirehampton all the best following their transfer to the Gloucestershire League
 

Brightside

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The discussion on how many go up and down, and the rules dates back to April 2019, (when the FA made the announcement). At the time I posted this - which I think is correct

Step 1
Currently 24 teams in one division, two promoted, four relegated
At the end of 2019-20, we expect one reprieve from relegation as follow through from Bury
No changes planned

Step 2
Currently 44 teams, in two divisions, 2x22. Two promoted from each division, three relegated from each division
2019/20 - 44 teams as 2x22 - only two relegated from each division
The Bury situation means that one team escapes relegation (on ppg)
2020/21 - 48 teams as 2x24 - four relegated from each division
Promotions will not change

Step 3
Currently 88 teams, in four divisions, 4x22. 1.5 promoted from each division (using an inter-division play off). 3 relegated from each division
2019/20 - 88 teams as 4x22 - 2 promoted from each division. 2 relegated from each division, plus two more to be relegated by ppg - meaning that 14 are needed from below to maintain 88 teams
Again one reprieve on ppg thanks to Bury.
2020/21 - 88 teams as 4x22 - 2 promoted from each division. I think the plan is 3 down from each, so 12 teams down - but would like confirmation

Step 4

Currently 140 teams in seven divisions, 7x20. For this season only 12 promotions, which means two play-off winners miss out. Two teams relegated per division
2019/20 - 140 teams as 7x20 - two promotions from each division, 0.5 relegations (the bottom teams enter a relegation play-off).
Assuming any reformed Bury team enters at Step 5 or 6, I am not certain how the drop down of the vacancy of dealt with here. One less play off, one suspects
2020/21 - 160 teams as 8x20 - 1.5 promotions from each division (see above), Two teams relegated from each division

That means a new intake of 24 teams from next season's Step 5 to fill gaps at Step 4.

If I have followed the past information correctly, the uptake of 24 teams is as follows.
Three leagues (Northern, North West Counties, Northern Counties (East)) to promote three sides each = 9
All the other (11 leagues) at Step 5 to promote champions = 11. 11+9 = 20
The top four on ppg second placed teams (from these 11) to gain direct promotion = 4. 20+4 =24

The remaining 7 runners-up (or best placed suitable) to go into a play-off against the teams finishing bottom of the Step 4 divisions, which has a neutral effect on numbers. One of these play-offs will probably not exist due to the Bury situation.
Updated promotion / relegation for 2021
 

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BlackDouglas

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Until the vacancy at Step 2 is filled (created by Bury) won't there be one less relegated club across the board?
 

Brightside

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Until the vacancy at Step 2 is filled (created by Bury) won't there be one less relegated club across the board?
Vacancies
Step 2 - 1 - Bury
Step 3 - 1 - Blackfield & Langley
Step 4 - 1 - Droylsden

So there will be a maximum of 4 Step 4/Step 5 playoffs

Step 5 - 2
Step 6 - 27
 

Unicorn

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Vacancies
Step 2 - 1 - Bury
Step 3 - 1 - Blackfield & Langley
Step 4 - 1 - Droylsden

So there will be a maximum of 4 Step 4/Step 5 playoffs

Step 5 - 2
Step 6 - 27
I thought there were 48 regional feeders.
Have you or anyone got a link to the FA allocations for the Regional feeders.
 

Born in Chesham

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Macclesfield are now replacing Stevenage as being relegated to the National League after the EFL won their appeal against the point deduction.
 

Brightside

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Updated promotion / relegation for 2021
Update after Macclesfield Town Folded

Vacancies 2020/2021
Step 1 - 1 Macclesfield
Step 2 - 1 - Bury
Step 3 - 1 - Blackfield & Langley
Step 4 - 1 - Droylsden
Step 5 - 2 (Brackley Town Saints, Greenwich Borough, Team Solent, South Normanton Athletic, Less 1 oversubscribed 2019/2020 & Blackfield & Langley)
Step 6 - 28 (15 spaces in 2019/2020 + 15 teams withdrawn less AFC Bury & FC Isle of Man)

So there will be a maximum of 3 Step 4/Step 5 playoffs

Adjusted Vacancies for 2021/2022

Step 2 - 4 additional spots
Step 4 - 20 Additional spots
Step 5 - 40 Additional spots
Step 6 - 60 Fewer spots

Promotion & Relegation rules

20/21 spacesPromotionsRelegations21/22 spacesAdditional spaces 21/22
League 2
2​
Step 1
24​
2​
4​
24​
0​
Step 2
44​
4​
4​
48​
4​
Step 3
88​
8​
10​
88​
0​
Step 4
140​
14​
3.5​
160​
20​
Step 5
280​
27.5​
12​
320​
40​
Step 6
400​
76​
40​
340​
-60​
Step 7
44​
976​
980​
4​

Promotion & Relegation rules adjusted

20/21 actualPromotionsRelegations21/22 spacesAdditional spaces 21/22Unused Spaces 20/21
League 2
2​
Step 1
23​
2​
3​
24​
1​
1​
Step 2
43​
4​
2​
48​
5​
1​
Step 3
87​
8​
7​
88​
1​
1​
Step 4
139​
14​
1.5​
160​
21​
1​
Step 5
278​
29.5​
6​
320​
42​
2​
Step 6
372​
76​
9​
340​
-32​
28​
Step 7
47​
942​
980​
38​
34​
 

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