Coronavirus

Mr. T

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Crikey, Leo. We hear one side every day from the government and the mainstream broadcast media. Someone has to offer the other.

Those countries that have done very little in the way of lockdown and have leaders that were pushing against it have fared worst in the death rates. Some countries that locked down quicker and isolated more tend to have lower death rates, but now live in the fear that opening up will create a massive second wave because it is basically their first wave.

A point made by many observers. The further the virus (indeed, any RTI) runs through the population, the greater the level of resistance in the population at large and the quicker the virus dies out (at least for that season) as it cannot find enough vulnerable individuals to properly infect (Cummings mentions this when referring to masks).

Of course, neither the government nor its critics will win either way. If the virus does die out and not come back (like SARS) then the restrictions will be hailed (wrongly) as a triumph. If it remains as persistent, the restrictions will be made more severe again even though we now know how to manage it and so free the population and the economy.
 

Lord Lucan

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Those countries that have done very little in the way of lockdown and have leaders that were pushing against it have fared worst in the death rates...

I know that it is generally possible to generate two compelling, but opposite arguments by the selective use of accurate statistics, (and I did not do any stats beyond my A levels).
The first statement above is patently untrue based on the published figures. So it would appear you have come to a conclusion not through " selective use" but something else - do you feel the published figures are not the true figures ?
 

Northstandexile

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Advisors advise and governments should make decisions.

what advisors do and I am sure these Covid advisers did is propose several actions which the government could take. With each action the scientific advisors predict the outcome of each scenario.

the government than decide which outcome they prefer and then should put into action which proposal gives their required outcome. So technically they are following the science.

the problem with this government, they are not open and do not publish the scenarios that the advisors give them to choose from.
 

Digdagdog

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the problem with this government, they are not open and do not publish the scenarios that the advisors give them to choose from.
Open about what? SAGE minutes are there for you to read and come to your own conclusion on these things. I think they have been pretty open and they've admitted that they will subject themselves to a review. I don't agree with everything they've done, but I disagree that they're hiding anything
 

jon b

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Went to the Shepley Spitfire in Totley, Sheffield yesterday with Mrs B and nieces. Appropriate, I suppose as we've just had Battle of Britain Day. They'd got all the social distancing measures in place and a 25% discount to try to draw punters in.

I offered to give contact details but as the barmaid was the nieces' next door neighbour she thought she'd be able to track and trace us pretty easy.

One phrase in the Covid rules threw me a bit. "No vertical drinking" :unsure: ! I don't think I could manage horizontal drinking. Apparently, the phrase originated down under.
 

buncranaboy

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Arrived back in the UK early this morning after two weeks in small Dodecanese islands where there are no curfews, sensible precautions and negligible infection rates.
Duly spent 15 minutes completing the obligatory PLF form (why do they want to know my father's name - he's been gone 25 years !!) and my daughter assisted with downloading the document on my phone.
On arrival at Birmingham Airport, I retrived the first document on my phone which was the FA directive banning crowds at Step 6/7 a few weeks ago. The "official" took a brief look at it and asked if I'd completed the form. I said yes and she was satisfied by that.
So that all works then......🤔
 

jon b

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Well that campaign to get everyone back in the office, travelling to city centres and eating/drinking out went well.
 

Tim

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We have reached a perilous turning point, says the Prime Minster. Yet tucked away far beneath all the day's scare stories on the BBC website was a little item that revealed the total deaths in England and Wales last week with any coronavirus connection amounted to a massive 1%. Isn't it about time we stopped messing about and gave appropriate consideration of the other 99%, many of which are doubtless attributable to NHS cancellations - cancer treatment, etc. Time to get things in proportion, I think. I realise this won't go down well with Project Fear victims, but I'm sharing this news for those who have retained their sanity and a little sense. It cheered me and my partner up, anyway.
 

leohoenig

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A friend of mine had to go to Hospital about two months ago. He had an emergency operation and part of his intestines removed. This was at the height of the pandemic and was possible because lockdown meant that not all the beds were full with COVID cases.

For the sake of everyone else who is ill, the country needs to keep the numbers of COVID patients at a managable level. I don't know if the restrictions are necessary or not. Here in France, it appears far more relaxed, and with a much higher prevalance of the disease in the population. (Of course the French population itself is more spread out as well). The good news in France is that while the numbers known to have Coronavirus are at the highest ever level, the number of hospitalisations is not as bad as in the first wave. (At least, I think so - I don't watch all the news). If the UK follows the same trend then maybe the current restrictions will not be so severe for long.

I suspect the government want to portray a worst case scenario so as they can claim a success when things are found not to be so bad. And of course, they need to keep the country working and in such a situation, professional sport is a small part of the economy
 

Lord Lucan

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We have reached a perilous turning point, says the Prime Minster. Yet tucked away far beneath all the day's scare stories on the BBC website was a little item that revealed the total deaths in England and Wales last week with any coronavirus connection amounted to a massive 1%. Isn't it about time we stopped messing about and gave appropriate consideration of the other 99%, many of which are doubtless attributable to NHS cancellations - cancer treatment, etc. Time to get things in proportion, I think. I realise this won't go down well with Project Fear victims, but I'm sharing this news for those who have retained their sanity and a little sense. It cheered me and my partner up, anyway.
I really do wonder why the BBC seems so determined to keep such info well hidden.

And you have given the tutters on here something else to keep them going as well, so everyone will be happy.
 

Mr. T

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Messages
261
I suspect the government want to portray a worst case scenario so as they can claim a success when things are found not to be so bad.
As I (almost) said a few days ago.

And of course, they need to keep the country working and in such a situation, professional sport is a small part of the economy
It's not just professional sport that is hogtied.
 

jon b

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I really do wonder why the BBC seems so determined to keep such info well hidden.

And you have given the tutters on here something else to keep them going as well, so everyone will be happy.
"Tutters"?
 

jon b

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I really do wonder why the BBC seems so determined to keep such info well hidden.
The Beeb hiding the low death rate? No, they're reporting the number of deaths and showing the relevant graphs.The question is why the Government are jumping in to re-introduce stringent measures despite the relatively small number of deaths currently.

And in a Parliamentary democracy there are plenty of politicians who could champion a different course of action than that just set out by Johnson, if they feel they can credibly challenge the gloom and doom scenario described by Vallance and Whitty as likely to occur if the government don't put in place the rules announced.

At present the political opposition to Johnson's measures appears to come from within the Conservative party.
 

Part-Timer

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Dec 9, 2019
Messages
401
I really do wonder why the BBC seems so determined to keep such info well hidden.
The BBC reported it on their website. If they wanted to keep it hidden they needn't have reported it at all.

There have never been so many statistics on death and its causes published so widely. Surely it is not beyond the wit of even the arithmetically challenged to work out the percentage of deaths caused by covid if they are sufficiently interested.
 

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