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Home: All Other Football Interests: Football in other countries:
World Cup Qualification 2022

 

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hawkwind
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Oct 17, 2019, 1:21 PM

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Post #51 of 56 (2060 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Finding it very difficult to predict Asian qualifying second place cut-off for next round. 15 possibly?


leohoenig
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Oct 17, 2019, 2:11 PM

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Post #52 of 56 (2038 views)
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Re: [hawkwind] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The best four second placed teams in Asian Qualifying make it to the next round.

If Qatar are a group winner, or in that best four, then a fifth (second place) team will take their place
As currently, the top five have seven points from three games (out of a total of 8), 15 may not be enough. Last time around it was 11 points from six games for top four. Games against the fifth placed team did not count as one group had only four teams - so it will probably by 16/17 point target to qualify



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leohoenig
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Nov 14, 2019, 7:56 PM

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Post #53 of 56 (367 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The Asian Qualification Second Round reached its halfway point today. No one can be knocked out until Tuesday and qualifying for the third round takes longer, (especially as most top seeds are not playing Tuesday). Some interesting results though

Starting with Group A (why not), where Syria are top of the group with a 100% record having won all four games. Syria are one of those teams that cannot play at home, and have therefore made their base in Dubai. China were the team that lost there today, leaving their fans expecting Marcello Lippi to resign as coach for the second time this year. [I typed this sentence one minute before the news confirming this came through]

The lopsidedness of Asian qualifying is shown here. Syria will play Philippines in Dubai on Tuesday, and then have to travel (further) for their final three games, with trips to Guam and China in June when the Chinese have two home matches. The Philippines won in the Maldives today. Guam, who did not play are bottom and without a point, so can be knocked out on Tuesday with the combination of their (expected) defeat in the Maldives with an (unexpected) win for Philippines away to Syria (in Dubai).

In Group B, Australia are on 100% following a 1-0 win in Jordan. Combined with Kuwait's 9-0 annilation of Chinese Taipei (aka Taiwan), it drops Jordan to third in the group. Kuwait at second, but in the fourth seeding pot. Their low ranking being at least partly due to being banned from the previous edition. Taiwan suprisingly had achieved a high enough ranking to reach the third seeding pot, they have no points and will be eliminated if they lost in Jordan on Tuesday, (Jordan's final home game). Nepal, who have three points to date (away to Taiwan) have played all their games away by agreement with the opposition. This was in the hope of having their own stadium ready, but this has not been achieved and Tuesday's game is in Bhutan. (The Nepal national stadium was damaged by the 2015 earthquake).

After their triumphant return to home soil for vistory against Hong Kong last month, Iraq were hoping to build on this against their strongest rival, Iran. However, security concerns meant that this game, and Tuesday's match against Bahrain were switched to be played in Jordan. Still, the Iraqis could cheer after an injury time goal by Alaa Abbas gave them all three points. Hong Kong, despite their own problems managed to stage their game against Bahrain and get what they describe as a credible 0-0 draw. With it not possible to see the end of the game and get the metro home, (the system stopping at 22.00 for security reasons), the crowd was under 5000. Iran - one of the favourites to reach the final at the start are now third in the group, two points behind Bahrain and four behind Iraq. They do have the advantage of playing three of their remaining games at home, including matches against both Bahrain and Iraq next June.

Saudi Arabia, top seeds in group D do top the group after a less than convincing first half. They had drawn their previous away games, and were 2-1 down to Uzbekistan with five minutes to play when goals from Al-Faraj and Al-Dawsari turned the game. Saudi are unbeaten with 8 points and three home games to play. Uzbekistan are in second, two points behind, and one ahead of Yemen who leapfrogged above Palestine with a 1-0 win (in Bahrain). Singapore, who did not play are bottom of the group, but still in contention if they can pick up points on the road, as three of their remaining games are away.

In Group E, Qatar have swapped fixture dates with pot 5 seed Bangladesh, to give them more time to prepare for next years Copa America. (Australia, also invited, did not bother to change). This means Qatar have already played three home games and did not play today. They still lead the group with 10 points, one more than Oman who eased into second with a 4-1 win over Bangladesh. The interestng game was in Tajikistan, where Afghanistan are playing their home games. Two injury time goals, one in each half meant the Afghan's ended with a 1-1 draw against India. It was India the levelled it at the very end.

In Groups F, G and H, all the home teams staged games in their own country!

Japan won 2-0 in Kyrgyzstan and top their group with four wins from four. Kyrgyzstan stay second after Tajikistan surprisingly lost to Myanmar in Mandalay. The central Asian pair have six points each, while these were the first points for Myanmar who stay behind Mongolia (who did not play this round). on goal difference

In group G, the group of South East Asia and UAE, the UAE team suffered their second successive defeat on the road, going down to a Nguyen Tien Linh goal just before the break. Malaysia came from behind to beat Thailand 2-1, with some good crowds in the South East - 37.989 in Hanoi and 39,363 in Kuala Lumpar. These were the best crowds of the day, but we may get better on Tuesday when Vietnam are at home to Thailand and Malaysia face Indonesia. Vietnam lead the group with ten points, Thailand have seven, UAE and Malaysia six and Indonesia zero. Indonesia would be eliminated if Thailand and Malaysia win on Tuesday.

Finally, for the second game in succession, South Korea were made to play away in front of an almost empty stadium as Lebanese authorities decided their game would be behind closed doors. As with the game a month ago in Pyongyang, the result was 0-0. Perhaps everyone will take to playing the Koreans without crowds now! In the games people were watching, South Korea have scored ten without reply. South Korea lead the group on eight points with Lebanon one behind. North Korea are also one point behind the South after losing 3-1 in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan now on six points, while Sri Lanka are without a point. Both the winner (if there is one) of Lebanon v North Korea and Turkmenistan, if the beat Sri Lanka at home will be ahea of South Korea after Tuesday, although South Korea with three home matches and a trip to Sri Lanka to come are not likely to worry about this

At the half way point, the second place table has teams ranging from six to nine points. With Qatar currently leading their group, it could be five places open in the next round, with the cut off currently on seven points. Thailand just taking the place by one goal from Lebanon. I would speculate that 15 points. In qualification for 2018, both North Korea and Jordan picked up 16 points and missed out



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leohoenig
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Nov 19, 2019, 4:37 PM

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Post #54 of 56 (211 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

191. Sri Lanka will have to save their hopes for Cricket for the next few years as they become the 21st team knocked out of the World Cup. Alhough a 2-0 defeat in Turkmenistan left them only nine points behind the current group leaders, (with nine points more possible), the number of games between the leaders, South Korea (8 points), Lebanon and North Korea (7 points each) means it is not possible for three out of four to not reach the ten point mark. In all probability this evening's game, Lebanon v North Korea will send one team to that mark.

A good crowd, 26,304 in Ashgabat for the Turkmenistan game, but this was dwarfed by the 75,000 that saw Malaysia play Indonesia in Kuala Lumpur. The same group also boasted 40,000 for Vietnam v Thailand. No goals in Hanoi, but Safawi got one in each half for Malaysia which means that

190. Indonesia having like Sri Lanka lost five out of five, cannot qualify.



Fat AND Pompous.
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Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



leohoenig
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Nov 19, 2019, 5:58 PM

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Post #55 of 56 (194 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

In addition, and as a consequence of other results,

189. Guam. This is compex, as I believe Guam can still finish second in their group - however in at least five groups the second placed team must end up with ten or more points and hence even in the unlikely event of Guam and Syria winning all remaining games, the other games all ending in draws and Guam scoring a hat overfull of goals, they still cannot make it to the next round.

And then, after a few minutes wait after typing the above

188. Chinese Taipei. Simpler here for the Chinese island, who fall by 5-0 in Jordan and remain without a point. They can only finish fourth or fifth in the group



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



leohoenig
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Nov 19, 2019, 8:54 PM

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Post #56 of 56 (167 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] World Cup Qualification 2022 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

With the last of the games for the day finishing - a rather predictable 0-0 draw between Lebanon and North Korea, a quick summary of where it leaves the groups as they break until the March international window.
Group A: Syria's 1-0 win, at "home" to Philippines brings them up to 15 points from 5 games. Even though all three remaining games are away, they have an excellent chance of progressing, especially if China continue to misfire. China are second, 8 points behind, but have a game in hand and three home games to play. While Philippines are also on 7, they have a lot to do to reach second place. The Maldives six point position is a little false, as all points have been gained against Guam. They lost 5-0 at home to China and face the Chinese again next, followed by the home game against Syria. The prediction has to be no change in the positions with the Chinese second place being on 17 or 19 points.

Group B: Australia will be pleased that having sat out these games, and with three home matches to come, they stay ahead of the group, by two points ahead of both Kuwait and Jordan. The meeting between these two in March will go a long way towards settling who finishes second, (although if either gets a point or more in Australia, this could make the difference). I'm not predicting who comes second to Australia, but will project 16-17 points for the second place
Group C: Iraq, once again played in Jordan, and were watched by over 10,000 - that is 8,000 more than Jordan's own game later in the day in the same city. Seems odd! However Iraq did not repeat the performance that saw them beat Iran, and the game against Bahrain finished 0-0. Hong Kong, despite the problems in their city managed to beat Cambodia 2-0. Iran are playing catch up but could still win the group, with three home games and a trip to Cambodia. My prediction would be they just miss out and come second behind Iraq, fnishing on 16
Group D: Despite not playing, Saudi Arabia are only one point behind Uzbekistan. The Uzbeks beat Palestine 2-0, while Singapore won their "away" game against Yemen (in Bahrain). Prediction is that Saudi take the group and that the Uzbeks only end up on 15 points in second.
Group E: Single goal wins for both Qatar (playing Afghanistan away in Tajikistan) and Oman (home to India) means it is almost certain these two finish in the top two positions. Despite playing reverse seeding, meaning Qatar have to play only three more games, two away, they are still favourites to win the group, with Oman predicted to finish 2nd on 16-18 points.
Group F: Japan did not play, but they are five points clear, on 100% and have three home games in the last four. They appear to be unstoppable in this group, (and of course are the Asian favourite for the finals). Second place is Kyrgyzstan, who drew 1-1 at home to Tajikistan. Both are on seven points with goal difference separating them. One will probably finish second, but with a predicted 13-14 points, they will not get through
Group G: Except Indonesia, who are out, this is the tighest of groups with the UAE, the seeded team, behind Vietnam (11), Malaysia (9) and Thailand (8). Despite playing catch-up, I actually predict that they will turn this around and top the group with either Vietnam or Thailand finishing second, but the penalty for a tight group is less points in second place - predicting 14.

Group H: Another tight group ahead of Sri Lanka who have lost all five. Turkmenistan have a one point advantage over three sides, South Korea, North Korea and Lebanon. The South Koreans have the seeding advantage of a game in hand, and three home games, saving them from having to play another away game without a crowd. I expect South Korea to pick up the points and win the group. Either Turkmenistan or North Korea in second, but only 13-15 points.

So I am suggesting that groups F, G and H are those which only have one team through. 13 teams, including hosts China are confirmed for the next Asian Cup, 12 of these play on for the World Cup places while Qatar settle for a series of friendlies



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com


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