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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Non League Projections 2020/21

 

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BDA_85
First Team Star

Oct 12, 2019, 8:14 PM

Posts: 1546
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Post #26 of 108 (12392 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

You have Crawley Green's pin at Barton Rovers. They now play at the Brache, Luton.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 12, 2019, 8:24 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #27 of 108 (12380 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Thanks I’ve moved them



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 13, 2019, 10:31 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #28 of 108 (11797 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I’ve updated the spreadsheet after the weekend’s results.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


Terrierdave
Youth Team Star

Oct 14, 2019, 10:23 AM

Posts: 366
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne (previously Bedlington)
Team(s): Nottingham Forest, Bedlington Terriers

Post #29 of 108 (11510 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
I’ve updated the spreadsheet after the weekend’s results.


I'm guessing what Sarumio is getting at, is the projection could reflect what is most likely to happen, rather than a theoretical absolute on the edges of possibility outcome.

I don't have an issue anyway, as it's all good fun until we get later in the season, and perhaps the FA give more guidance on what version of their rules they are going to apply.

Keep up the good work though!


(This post was edited by Terrierdave on Oct 14, 2019, 11:40 AM)


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 14, 2019, 11:01 AM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #30 of 108 (11469 views)
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Re: [Terrierdave] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
I’ve updated the spreadsheet after the weekend’s results.


I'm guessing what Sarumio is getting at, is the projection could reflect what is most likely to happen, rather than a theoretical absolute on the edges of possibility outcome.

I don't have an issue anyway, as it's all good fun until we get later in the season, and perhaps the FA give more guidance on what version of their rules they are going to apply.

Keep up the good word though!



There is one potential difference on the whole of the spreadsheet & that is in the NL2. The FA aren’t going to give guidance, they never do & that’s why I asked the question. Their response was as follows:

I think that the key is, if we take multiple clubs from the Step 7 feeders, we give some back. I think the Committee would be reluctant to promote a number of Clubs without relegating some back, but that is only my view of what I think they may do!

The relegation & promotion rules between step 6 & 7 are as follows:
Step6and7
At the end of the Regular Playing Season the Clubs in the bottom two positions of each of the twenty Step 6 divisions will be liable to relegation.
All Step 7 Clubs seeking promotion to Step 6 must make application using the prescribed form direct to The Association, copied to their existing League, by 31st December in the relevant year. In order to be considered for promotion Clubs must finish in 1st position in their Step 7 league. If the Club finishing in 1st position does not wish to be promoted or fails to meet the entry criteria then the club finishing in 2nd position will be eligible for promotion. If the club in 2nd position does not seek promotion or fails to meet the entry criteria then clubs down to 5th position may be considered for promotion provided that they meet the appropriate entry criteria. Clubs finishing below 5th position may not be considered for promotion and, for this season only, more than one club may be considered from each League. Each application must be accompanied by the agreed application fee, as determined by the Committee, which is non-refundable.
No more than 40 Clubs will be promoted from Step 7. If more than 40 Clubs are eligible for promotion they will be chosen based on a points per match basis. Where the eligible Clubs count does not reach 40 in number, reprieves of Step 6 Clubs shall come into effect on a points per match basis.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


pokal02
First Team Star

Oct 14, 2019, 11:22 AM

Posts: 2325
Location: Cockfosters
Team(s): Barnet, Cockfosters, Truro City, Udinese

Post #31 of 108 (11442 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

So, at least we have clarificationm that Step 6 relegation (to Step 7) will be determined by PPG rather than the dog's breakfast of the last 2 years - broadly sensible although could cause a couple of problems in the far SW.


Brightside
Youth Team Sub

Oct 14, 2019, 12:45 PM

Posts: 107
Location: North Essex
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Post #32 of 108 (11314 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

There are currently 15 spaces at step 6
There is 1 team too many at step 5
There are 4 new spaces created at step 2

Will they try to promote 18 teams more than they relegate or keep 18 spaces at step 6?



2020/2021 based on league positions as at 09/11/2019

Non League Projections - 2020/21 - https://docs.google.com/...fAI/edit?usp=sharing
Step 1 - https://drive.google.com/...1zLX5Ju5&usp=sharing
Step 2 - https://drive.google.com/...REZzvDIU&usp=sharing
Step 3 - https://drive.google.com/...GYGtPp8H&usp=sharing
Step 4 - https://drive.google.com/...DJBN8cC-&usp=sharing
Step 5 - https://drive.google.com/...I48iX_bL&usp=sharing
Step 6 - https://drive.google.com/...siBvGhTK&usp=sharing


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 14, 2019, 1:03 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #33 of 108 (11285 views)
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Re: [Brightside] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I’m sure they’ll promote & relegate to suit. The NL, SWPL, NWCL & SCEL will probably have extra promotions and reprieves because of their geography.
The CMLN might see 2 promoted teams, especially if Newark Town wins it & are promoted to the UCL1. The FALC then needs a team to fill a spot in the NCEL1. So Harworth or Dinnington could be promoted too.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


(This post was edited by windydcfc on Oct 14, 2019, 1:08 PM)


Sarumio
Man City Transfer Target!

Oct 14, 2019, 2:17 PM

Posts: 6329
Location: Ilminster
Team(s): Salisbury

Post #34 of 108 (11192 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Terrier Dave has hit the nail on the head. But you are seemingly going to ignore it (and I guess as controller of these projections that is your right).

But I’d rather these projections were produced on, as rightly pointed out, a best guess at the likely outcome, not an extreme case in point.

No Durham City do not deserve to stay up (as things stand). But very rarely at this level do clubs get relegated due to 6 promotions from below.

PS the rules aren’t any different to last season (except the one club per step 7 league rule being abolished) and the FA astoundingly and blatantly flouted/ignored them to the fullest in the summer just gone to suit their own unknown-to-anyone-else-but-them agenda, so they mean nothing to me, I’m afraid. Any response or quoting of FA rules/procedure is categorically meaningless at this level.


paulh66
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Oct 14, 2019, 2:59 PM

Posts: 19438
Location: Surrey
Team(s): Tranmere Rovers, South Liverpool (the South will rise again), Cammell Laird

Post #35 of 108 (11141 views)
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Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Discerning and less-astounded observers may find this season's NLS Regulations handy to refer to when perusing this thread: https://scefl.com/...ok-2019-2020-1.0.pdf


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 14, 2019, 3:01 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #36 of 108 (11137 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

In post 30, I’ve actually linked an email from the FA. Which points out that this isn’t an extreme case scenario. If you want to ignore it, then imagine Durham are still there & remove 1 of the promoted teams. Personally I think that every team that finishes bottom should be relegated unless there’s no option(which might happen in the SWPL’s).



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


pokal02
First Team Star

Oct 14, 2019, 6:01 PM

Posts: 2325
Location: Cockfosters
Team(s): Barnet, Cockfosters, Truro City, Udinese

Post #37 of 108 (10951 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

It depends whether the FA are prepared to let the SWP East drift eastwards. It looks OK to transfer Millbrook +/or Torpoint West (I'm speculating that Saltash can be persuaded to take promotion - Helston will surely try not to) - that leaves the SWP East short of 3 (assuming they do promote 2) - a promotee (Exwick?) + ? Bishop Lydeard & Wellington?
Struggling to think of another team that wouldn't be out on a limb if, say, Plymouth Marjon were relegated as well (Chard would have been OK if they hadn't been demoted).


alan hindle
Youth Team Regular

Oct 16, 2019, 12:34 PM

Posts: 235
Location: Manchester
Team(s): Wigan Athletic

Post #38 of 108 (10175 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Sorry if this has been mentioned previously Windy, but as I have only come on this thread today after a long time on others, has Wazzafan retired or is it sadder news.


Reborn Yellow
Youth Team Regular


Oct 16, 2019, 12:36 PM

Posts: 261
Location: Notts Senior League Land
Team(s): Hucknall Town, Nottingham Forest

Post #39 of 108 (10172 views)
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Re: [alan hindle] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

No need to worry, he's just retired.


ARNOLD241
Reserve Team Regular

Oct 16, 2019, 7:14 PM

Posts: 562
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Post #40 of 108 (9819 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Come on windy, Wodson Park have gone. Better get it updated before the moaners are on at you. (Winky thing)


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 16, 2019, 7:28 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #41 of 108 (9809 views)
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Re: [ARNOLD241] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Come on windy, Wodson Park have gone. Better get it updated before the moaners are on at you. (Winky thing)



They are there, they’ve moved across into the ECL1S.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


AussieSteve
Ballboy/girl

Oct 17, 2019, 3:44 AM

Posts: 4
Location: Camden, Sydney, Australia
Team(s): Stoke C,Wolfsburg,

Post #42 of 108 (9526 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

This my first time on the forum, I find your spreadsheet great.

I cannot seem to to find Winterton Rangers in the NCEL

CheersSmile


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 17, 2019, 3:12 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #43 of 108 (9179 views)
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Re: [AussieSteve] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
This my first time on the forum, I find your spreadsheet great.

I cannot seem to to find Winterton Rangers in the NCEL

CheersSmile



Sorted now & spreadsheet/maps updated after midweek games



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


BDA_85
First Team Star

Oct 17, 2019, 9:29 PM

Posts: 1546
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Post #44 of 108 (8792 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
Come on windy, Wodson Park have gone. Better get it updated before the moaners are on at you. (Winky thing)



They are there, they’ve moved across into the ECL1S.


He means, gone gone.

For what it's worth (a matter of 100 yards or so) the Brimsdown pin should be at Ware FC, not Wodson Park athletics track pitch.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 18, 2019, 6:53 AM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #45 of 108 (8573 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Come on windy, Wodson Park have gone. Better get it updated before the moaners are on at you. (Winky thing)



They are there, they’ve moved across into the ECL1S.


He means, gone gone.

For what it's worth (a matter of 100 yards or so) the Brimsdown pin should be at Ware FC, not Wodson Park athletics track pitch.



I noticed they’d gone on another thread and I’ve placed them in the relegation section for step 6. I’ve also moved Brimsdown, thanks for letting us know.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


spen666
Youth Team Star

Oct 18, 2019, 11:03 AM

Posts: 290
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Post #46 of 108 (8318 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Projections currently suggest Wrexham will be in NLN next season, but also they are being relegated to there from NLN rather than NLP


Karen Browne
First Team Sub


Oct 18, 2019, 4:42 PM

Posts: 1021
Location: Pocklington, East Yorkshire
Team(s): Welwyn Garden City

Post #47 of 108 (7999 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Strange that you are allocating Langford and Stotfold to the Combined Counties Division One.
Travelling costs will soar



Karen Browne
Spartan South Midlands League
Fixtures Officer


E&E Fred
Youth Team Star


Oct 18, 2019, 4:56 PM

Posts: 278
Location: Fetcham, Surrey
Team(s): Epsom & Ewell FC

Post #48 of 108 (7981 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Quick question. I see Chessington & Hook United are placed in the Southern Combination Division One, yet Westside, who share there are in the Combined Counties Division One. Might I suggest moving Eversley & California who are much further west, across to the CoCo 1 with Westside moving to the same league as their landlords? I would also switch Walton & Hersham over in place of Fleet Spurs or Cove personally.
Good to see someone is taking the time to do this again. Great work! Actually, it's about time the NLP started to give this a bit more coverage!



Last Ground (607) - Stockport County - 9th November 2019
Last Cup won - Combined Counties League Cup - 2013
Twitter - @EandERich
Website: www.eefconline.co.uk
Website: www.isthmianarchive.co.uk


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 18, 2019, 6:17 PM

Posts: 10552
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #49 of 108 (7887 views)
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Re: [Karen Browne] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Strange that you are allocating Langford and Stotfold to the Combined Counties Division One.
Travelling costs will soar



It’s about the same and not much more if they are placed in the ESL as well. Which I’ve been toying with and moving the 3 westernmost ESL clubs.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


steve walker
Administrator


Oct 18, 2019, 10:25 PM

Posts: 1852
Location: Staffordshire
Team(s):

Post #50 of 108 (7690 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Brilliant. It would be a sad season if we didn't have this thread which is just the gift that keeps on giving!
Thanks for taking it on, will be tweeting the link regularly as it's updated

I'll sticky this one as I love these projections so much, I hope the windy will take the criticism that will undoubtedly be fired in as confirmation that we all love this thread also and have different opinions on some aspects.
Cheers... Steve


(This post was edited by steve walker on Oct 18, 2019, 10:43 PM)

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