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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Non League Projections 2020/21

 

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exile
Youth Team Sub

Oct 19, 2019, 12:05 PM

Posts: 152
Location: Driffield
Team(s):

Post #51 of 84 (8850 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

You now have Winterton in North East Counties Premier and Division One.

Also Market Drayton in United Counties North?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 19, 2019, 1:18 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #52 of 84 (8803 views)
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Re: [exile] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
You now have Winterton in North East Counties Premier and Division One.

Also Market Drayton in United Counties North?



I need to replace NE1 Winterton with Retford(I’ll do this whenever I get home). As for the UCL North, the new league’s footprint covers Notts/Derbys/Staffs. So I’ve placed them in that league because it fits best.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


BDA_85
First Team Star

Oct 19, 2019, 7:28 PM

Posts: 1495
Location:
Team(s):

Post #53 of 84 (8728 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Might need to revise Ampthill Town's placement at step 5 too. Certainly 4 teams better than them at the minute on current form. Their points total will decrease by 6 once full time is up to date with Wodson Park's withdrawal.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 22, 2019, 12:54 AM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #54 of 84 (8022 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

All updated and up to date after weekend’s results



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


MiddxSaint
Youth Team Star


Oct 22, 2019, 10:13 PM

Posts: 324
Location: Hayes
Team(s): St Albans City

Post #55 of 84 (7522 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

St Albans City are in the NLS relegation place but Hungerford Town (reserves?) have been put into the SL Premier South. Likely to be in same division as Kings Langley so agree with a SL Premier South placing.


Brightside
Junior Team Star

Oct 23, 2019, 7:59 PM

Posts: 104
Location: North Essex
Team(s):

Post #56 of 84 (7133 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Although for ease I think making an assumption that all 2nd place Step 5 teams beat the bottom placed step 4 teams, I think it is interesting how the playoffs may look.

Step 5 - 11 second place teams (Excludes NL1, NWP, NEP)

4 promoted

Tring Athletic 2.75
Walthamstow 2.71
Plymouth Parkway 2.5
Fairford Town 2.25

7 playoffs

Colliers Wood United 2.22
Stanway Rovers 2.2
Brockenhurst 2.2
Long Eaton United 2.18
Lancing 2.18
Glebe 2.11
Holbeach United 2

Bottom placed teams

Barnstaple Town 0.55
Romford 0.5
Market Drayton Town 0.46
Pickering Town 0.33
East Grinstead Town 0.33
Ashford Town (Middlesex) 0.22
Wantage Town 0

If Bury don't re-appear at Step 5 or higher, Barnstaple Town would be reprieved and Colliers Wood United promoted

https://drive.google.com/...kUiU&usp=sharing

Something like this;

Colliers Wood United v Ashford Town (Middlesex)
Stanway Rovers v Romford
Brockenhurst v Barnstaple Town
Long Eaton United v Market Drayton Town
Lancing v East Grinstead Town
Glebe v Wantage Town
Holbeach United v Pickering Town

(This post was edited by Brightside on Oct 23, 2019, 10:08 PM)


hawkwind
First Team Star

Oct 24, 2019, 10:52 AM

Posts: 2016
Location:
Team(s):

Post #57 of 84 (6873 views)
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Re: [steve walker] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Brilliant. It would be a sad season if we didn't have this thread which is just the gift that keeps on giving!
Thanks for taking it on, will be tweeting the link regularly as it's updated

I'll sticky this one as I love these projections so much, I hope the windy will take the criticism that will undoubtedly be fired in as confirmation that we all love this thread also and have different opinions on some aspects.
Cheers... Steve


"The gift that keeps on giving". Exactly.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 24, 2019, 11:26 AM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #58 of 84 (6838 views)
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Re: [Brightside] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Although for ease I think making an assumption that all 2nd place Step 5 teams beat the bottom placed step 4 teams, I think it is interesting how the playoffs may look.

Step 5 - 11 second place teams (Excludes NL1, NWP, NEP)

4 promoted

Tring Athletic 2.75
Walthamstow 2.71
Plymouth Parkway 2.5
Fairford Town 2.25

7 playoffs

Colliers Wood United 2.22
Stanway Rovers 2.2
Brockenhurst 2.2
Long Eaton United 2.18
Lancing 2.18
Glebe 2.11
Holbeach United 2

Bottom placed teams

Barnstaple Town 0.55
Romford 0.5
Market Drayton Town 0.46
Pickering Town 0.33
East Grinstead Town 0.33
Ashford Town (Middlesex) 0.22
Wantage Town 0

If Bury don't re-appear at Step 5 or higher, Barnstaple Town would be reprieved and Colliers Wood United promoted

https://drive.google.com/...kUiU&usp=sharing

Something like this;

Colliers Wood United v Ashford Town (Middlesex)
Stanway Rovers v Romford
Brockenhurst v Barnstaple Town
Long Eaton United v Market Drayton Town
Lancing v East Grinstead Town
Glebe v Wantage Town
Holbeach United v Pickering Town



The step 4 teams have home advantage in the playoffs. Also Holbeach aren’t 2nd, Loughborough Uni are and are ineligible for promotion. The FA won’t allow the next in-line to enter the playoffs. So it’ll be down to the league committees discretion. I’m taking it the the best ppg team will be reprieved at step 4. Hopefully this won’t happen and a team will end up overtaking Uni.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


Brightside
Junior Team Star

Oct 24, 2019, 2:02 PM

Posts: 104
Location: North Essex
Team(s):

Post #59 of 84 (6667 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Take out Colliers Wood, Holbeach, Barnstaple and Romford and that'd leave you the 10 teams for the playoffs.

Switch the home/away order

Something like this

Glebe v Ashford Town (Middlesex)
Stanway Rovers v Market Drayton Town
Brockenhurst v Wantage Town
Long Eaton United v Pickering Town
Lancing v East Grinstead Town

A lot less regional but as expected



2020/2021 based on league positions as at 09/11/2019

Non League Projections - 2020/21 - https://docs.google.com/...fAI/edit?usp=sharing
Step 1 - https://drive.google.com/...1zLX5Ju5&usp=sharing
Step 2 - https://drive.google.com/...REZzvDIU&usp=sharing
Step 3 - https://drive.google.com/...GYGtPp8H&usp=sharing
Step 4 - https://drive.google.com/...DJBN8cC-&usp=sharing
Step 5 - https://drive.google.com/...I48iX_bL&usp=sharing
Step 6 - https://drive.google.com/...siBvGhTK&usp=sharing


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Oct 24, 2019, 2:50 PM

Posts: 2497
Location: Back in hilly Malvern.
Team(s): Malvern Town FC

Post #60 of 84 (6618 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
The step 4 teams have home advantage in the playoffs. Also Holbeach aren’t 2nd, Loughborough Uni are and are ineligible for promotion. The FA won’t allow the next in-line to enter the playoffs. So it’ll be down to the league committees discretion. I’m taking it the the best ppg team will be reprieved at step 4. Hopefully this won’t happen and a team will end up overtaking Uni.


You know this for sure? I could have sworn that down to 3rd.-place would be allowed this season.



Professional cretin.


petermiller36
First Team Sub

Oct 24, 2019, 4:11 PM

Posts: 1113
Location: Nottingham
Team(s): Ware & AFC Wimbledon

Post #61 of 84 (6554 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Excellent work in keeping this spreadsheet going Windy. Thank you to Wazzafan for his years of doing this.

I've updated my promotion / relegation spreadsheet which sits quite nicely alongside the projections one. It will updated every 6 weeks (when I have a week of night shifts) until we get towards April and onwards.

http://bit.ly/nonleague1920



Steps 4-7 Relegation and Promotion document:
http://bit.ly/PPG1819


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 24, 2019, 6:06 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #62 of 84 (6448 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
The step 4 teams have home advantage in the playoffs. Also Holbeach aren’t 2nd, Loughborough Uni are and are ineligible for promotion. The FA won’t allow the next in-line to enter the playoffs. So it’ll be down to the league committees discretion. I’m taking it the the best ppg team will be reprieved at step 4. Hopefully this won’t happen and a team will end up overtaking Uni.


You know this for sure? I could have sworn that down to 3rd.-place would be allowed this season.



I asked the FA this specific question and the answer was as follows:
As you correctly say, there is a lot of football to be played, but the Club would be ineligible for promotion if deemed to be a Further Education establishment and not a separate club.

I assume it would lead to a reprieve at Step 4 on the basis that there is no provision for the 3rd placed club in the United Counties League to be promoted, but this would be a decision for the two Committees to make.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


shimtoan
First Team Regular


Oct 24, 2019, 11:01 PM

Posts: 1379
Location: Dunkirk, Nottingham
Team(s): Dunkirk

Post #63 of 84 (6307 views)
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Re: [Brightside] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Take out Colliers Wood, Holbeach, Barnstaple and Romford and that'd leave you the 10 teams for the playoffs.

Switch the home/away order

Something like this

Glebe v Ashford Town (Middlesex)
Stanway Rovers v Market Drayton Town
Brockenhurst v Wantage Town
Long Eaton United v Pickering Town
Lancing v East Grinstead Town

A lot less regional but as expected

It was only 6 years ago that Long Eaton and Pickering were in the same league



unless stated, all views are my own and are not the views of any other person, club, or organisation


kirby knitters
Qatar World Cup bid member!

Oct 25, 2019, 10:52 AM

Posts: 18360
Location: Kirby Muxloe
Team(s): Hinckley United FC.

Post #64 of 84 (6111 views)
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Re: [shimtoan] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I see Loughborough University won at Durham in the BUCS League the other day. Surely they have a claim that this is the educational side of the club and the team that are in the UCL are run separately, purely as a football entity. No doubt that many players feature for them both but it may be a way round the promotion ban if it indeed exists.


shimtoan
First Team Regular


Oct 26, 2019, 7:14 AM

Posts: 1379
Location: Dunkirk, Nottingham
Team(s): Dunkirk

Post #65 of 84 (5755 views)
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Re: [kirby knitters] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
I see Loughborough University won at Durham in the BUCS League the other day. Surely they have a claim that this is the educational side of the club and the team that are in the UCL are run separately, purely as a football entity. No doubt that many players feature for them both but it may be a way round the promotion ban if it indeed exists.

The football club would need to become a separate entity from the university, and register as a Limited Company.

There are criteria Loughborough Athletic Union have in order to become a member of the football club. First off, you have to be a member of the Student Union and enrolled at Loughborough University or Loughborough College.

It's a nice football setup they have at the Uni. The stadium is definitely of the standard required to play higher, even if it is a little... sterile?
It's just unfortunate that other students at the university don't attend matches. I've looked at their attendance against us last season and it seems wildly out. Officially it was 207 but I can't remember seeing half that many in the stand and terraces, and that's including a couple of dozen referees who had a meeting there that night.



unless stated, all views are my own and are not the views of any other person, club, or organisation


kirby knitters
Qatar World Cup bid member!

Oct 26, 2019, 7:47 AM

Posts: 18360
Location: Kirby Muxloe
Team(s): Hinckley United FC.

Post #66 of 84 (5748 views)
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Re: [shimtoan] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
I see Loughborough University won at Durham in the BUCS League the other day. Surely they have a claim that this is the educational side of the club and the team that are in the UCL are run separately, purely as a football entity. No doubt that many players feature for them both but it may be a way round the promotion ban if it indeed exists.

The football club would need to become a separate entity from the university, and register as a Limited Company.

There are criteria Loughborough Athletic Union have in order to become a member of the football club. First off, you have to be a member of the Student Union and enrolled at Loughborough University or Loughborough College.

It's a nice football setup they have at the Uni. The stadium is definitely of the standard required to play higher, even if it is a little... sterile?
It's just unfortunate that other students at the university don't attend matches. I've looked at their attendance against us last season and it seems wildly out. Officially it was 207 but I can't remember seeing half that many in the stand and terraces, and that's including a couple of dozen referees who had a meeting there that night.

Clears up quite a lot so thanks for that one mate, as for the attendances they are currently the best they ever have been for the club so a real shame they can't progress to level the stadium deserves even though it probably wasn't built especially for them it should be hosting the game at a higher level than step 5.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Oct 28, 2019, 9:19 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #67 of 84 (4924 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Updated after last weekend’s results



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


steveberks
Junior Team Sub


Nov 1, 2019, 3:49 PM

Posts: 15
Location: Bracknell
Team(s): Bracknell Town

Post #68 of 84 (3158 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

It probably makes sense to shift Combined Counties Div One Woodley United (Reading) to play in the Hellenic Division One. A swap with Langley (who currently ground-share at Holyport near Maidenhead) makes sense.

Love this.

I know the Combined Counties area is getting a new division, is the North/South split down to anything in particular (anything concrete) or is it just speculation?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Nov 1, 2019, 6:00 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #69 of 84 (3092 views)
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Re: [steveberks] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
It probably makes sense to shift Combined Counties Div One Woodley United (Reading) to play in the Hellenic Division One. A swap with Langley (who currently ground-share at Holyport near Maidenhead) makes sense.

Love this.

I know the Combined Counties area is getting a new division, is the North/South split down to anything in particular (anything concrete) or is it just speculation



I’ve moved a few clubs around and sorted that issue out.
The FA released maps of step 1-6 for season 2020/21, which the leagues had to apply to run. It was in the Nonleague Paper and I’ve tried to keep close to what they showed. I’m sure they’ll end up slightly different & there’ll be zero relegations in some step 6 leagues and 2 in other’s. Just so the maps fit better and geographic issues will determine this.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


CanalEnder
Junior Team Regular

Nov 4, 2019, 10:39 AM

Posts: 51
Location: Worksop
Team(s): Worksop Town FC; Barnstoneworth United FC

Post #70 of 84 (2637 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Thanks for taking the effort to take this on - much appreciated. When was the last update done in terms of results & league positions?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Nov 4, 2019, 11:32 AM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #71 of 84 (2573 views)
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Re: [CanalEnder] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Thanks for taking the effort to take this on - much appreciated. When was the last update done in terms of results & league positions?



Thanks for support. I last updated the spreadsheet, after last weeks midweek games. I’ll probably update it again tonight.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


CanalEnder
Junior Team Regular

Nov 4, 2019, 12:04 PM

Posts: 51
Location: Worksop
Team(s): Worksop Town FC; Barnstoneworth United FC

Post #72 of 84 (2547 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Just wondered as the some step 5 promotions look odd - eg:Yorkshire Ams aren't a promo spot - or do I need to refresh something? fi so, how do I do that?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Nov 4, 2019, 12:16 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #73 of 84 (2530 views)
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Re: [CanalEnder] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Just wondered as the some step 5 promotions look odd - eg:Yorkshire Ams aren't a promo spot - or do I need to refresh something? fi so, how do I do that?



The promotions are determined on a ppg basis & not league positions. So a team could potentially be in the bottom half of a league but won every game because they are still in the FA Vase/Trophy or Cup.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9


CanalEnder
Junior Team Regular

Nov 4, 2019, 12:33 PM

Posts: 51
Location: Worksop
Team(s): Worksop Town FC; Barnstoneworth United FC

Post #74 of 84 (2516 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

ah, ok - I get it. Cheers.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Nov 4, 2019, 10:39 PM

Posts: 10521
Location: Barnetby
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #75 of 84 (2220 views)
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Re: [CanalEnder] Non League Projections 2020/21 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
ah, ok - I get it. Cheers.



The spreadsheet and maps are now updated after the weekends results.



Non League Projection - 2020/21: https://docs.google.com/...UTgVhKYTo/edit#gid=0
Step 1: https://www.google.com/....119447550000018&z=7
Step 2: https://www.google.com/...677250654298405&z=15
Step 3: https://www.google.com/...358611350589399&z=16
Step 4: https://www.google.com/...536616305542566&z=16
Step 5: https://www.google.com/...399355140531952&z=16
Step 6: https://www.google.com/...1556307438963813&z=9

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