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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions

 

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leohoenig
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Jun 15, 2019, 6:03 PM

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Post #26 of 57 (2488 views)
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Re: [Richard Rundle] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

On another thread, PaulC estimated the population of the south, (using the Severn-Wash line) to be just short of 28 million
Near enough 20 million of these are in the "south east", no naturally there are more leagues and clubs in that area



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ladderman
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Post #27 of 57 (2382 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
On another thread, PaulC estimated the population of the south, (using the Severn-Wash line) to be just short of 28 million
Near enough 20 million of these are in the "south east", no naturally there are more leagues and clubs in that area

Apparently that's irrelevant.


leohoenig
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Post #28 of 57 (2352 views)
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Re: [ladderman] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Its irrelevant to you
Stortford will be in the Northern Premier next seasonShocked



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



ladderman
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Jun 15, 2019, 9:01 PM

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Post #29 of 57 (2323 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I was hoping for East of Scotland League


oftenscore6
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Jun 16, 2019, 10:12 PM

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Post #30 of 57 (1990 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Its irrelevant to you
Stortford will be in the Northern Premier next seasonShocked

That's not likely, but if they are relegated, they could easily be in an NP1.



-----------------------------------------------
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20/7 FC United v Bangor 1876


Brightside
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Jun 17, 2019, 10:23 AM

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Post #31 of 57 (1707 views)
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Re: [Richard Rundle] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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With over 60% of Step 3, 4, and 5 clubs being located in the southern half of the country it's not going to get better.


And most of those in the south eastern quarter of the country.


The 3 regions (South East, London & East) had a combined population in 2011 of 22,655,656 which is about 43% of the population of England.

I believe that parts of the Midlands and North West are under represented but I don't believe the South East is over represented



How 2020/2021 could look like

Non League Projections - 2020/21 - https://docs.google.com/...lQiA/pub?output=xlsx

Step 1 - https://drive.google.com/...1zLX5Ju5&usp=sharing
Step 2 - https://drive.google.com/...REZzvDIU&usp=sharing
Step 3 - https://drive.google.com/...GYGtPp8H&usp=sharing
Step 4 - https://drive.google.com/...-M-GbrY3&usp=sharing
Step 5 - https://drive.google.com/...I48iX_bL&usp=sharing
Step 6 - https://drive.google.com/...siBvGhTK&usp=sharing



(This post was edited by Brightside on Jun 17, 2019, 10:29 AM)


shimtoan
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Jun 17, 2019, 4:56 PM

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Post #32 of 57 (1472 views)
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Re: [Brightside] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To

In Reply To
With over 60% of Step 3, 4, and 5 clubs being located in the southern half of the country it's not going to get better.


And most of those in the south eastern quarter of the country.


The 3 regions (South East, London & East) had a combined population in 2011 of 22,655,656 which is about 43% of the population of England.

I believe that parts of the Midlands and North West are under represented but I don't believe the South East is over represented

If you have 2 and one is under-represented, the other is therefore over-respresented



unless stated, all views are my own and are not the views of any other person, club, or organisation


Brightside
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Jun 17, 2019, 5:06 PM

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Post #33 of 57 (1457 views)
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Re: [shimtoan] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
If you have 2 and one is under-represented, the other is therefore over-respresented


I would suggest that there are more than 2 'parts' - The South West, North East & Yorkshire for instance



How 2020/2021 could look like

Non League Projections - 2020/21 - https://docs.google.com/...lQiA/pub?output=xlsx

Step 1 - https://drive.google.com/...1zLX5Ju5&usp=sharing
Step 2 - https://drive.google.com/...REZzvDIU&usp=sharing
Step 3 - https://drive.google.com/...GYGtPp8H&usp=sharing
Step 4 - https://drive.google.com/...-M-GbrY3&usp=sharing
Step 5 - https://drive.google.com/...I48iX_bL&usp=sharing
Step 6 - https://drive.google.com/...siBvGhTK&usp=sharing



Cris
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Jun 17, 2019, 6:39 PM

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Post #34 of 57 (1395 views)
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Re: [Brightside] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To

In Reply To
With over 60% of Step 3, 4, and 5 clubs being located in the southern half of the country it's not going to get better.


And most of those in the south eastern quarter of the country.


The 3 regions (South East, London & East) had a combined population in 2011 of 22,655,656 which is about 43% of the population of England.

I believe that parts of the Midlands and North West are under represented but I don't believe the South East is over represented


At step 4 South East, London & East has 43% of the population compared with 58% of clubs.

South West 10% population, 10% of clubs

East Midlands 9% population, 8% of clubs

West Midlands 11% population, 7% of clubs

North West 13% population, 10% of clubs

Yorkshire 10% population, 6% of clubs

North East 5% population, 1% of clubs


The south has half of the population and two thirds of the clubs, Iím not sure anyone can really argue it isnít significantly over represented.


(This post was edited by Cris on Jun 17, 2019, 6:41 PM)


multilevel
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Jun 18, 2019, 10:24 AM

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Post #35 of 57 (1134 views)
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Re: [Cris] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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... The south has half of the population and two thirds of the clubs, Iím not sure anyone can really argue it isnít significantly over represented.

I can argue that basing a decision just on these facts is over-simplifying things.

By the same argument we should be saying that the Rugby League authorities must take steps to promote masses of southern-based teams at the expense of northern teams.


Reborn Yellow
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Jun 18, 2019, 10:50 AM

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Post #36 of 57 (1102 views)
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Re: [multilevel] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The Northern League does well in the Vase implying that the step 5 is tougher in the north east than elsewhere.
Do other FA competition results give any evidence about the relative strengths on same level leagues in different regions? If the pyramid is 'fair' the leagues at a level should be of similar quality.


Haywain
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Jun 18, 2019, 11:24 AM

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Post #37 of 57 (1071 views)
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Re: [Reborn Yellow] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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The Northern League does well in the Vase implying that the step 5 is tougher in the north east than elsewhere.

As has been said time and again in these pages, a lot of that is because clubs (and probably players) in that region have chosen not to play at a higher level.



Haywain - following the Hatters through thin and thin.


Reborn Yellow
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Jun 18, 2019, 12:23 PM

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Post #38 of 57 (1027 views)
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Re: [Haywain] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

NL was just an example, possibly not the best one for the reason mentioned.
I was wondering how any two leagues such as the NPL and the SL compare at FAT/FAC/County Cup level (for border counties)


Cris
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Jun 18, 2019, 1:17 PM

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Post #39 of 57 (990 views)
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Re: [multilevel] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
... The south has half of the population and two thirds of the clubs, Iím not sure anyone can really argue it isnít significantly over represented.

I can argue that basing a decision just on these facts is over-simplifying things.

By the same argument we should be saying that the Rugby League authorities must take steps to promote masses of southern-based teams at the expense of northern teams.


Population is a good proxy, but is not the only facts to look at, the development of the pyramid over the last 20 plus years has significantly benefited the progress of clubs in the south. Results between teams at the same level have also shown that generally northern/Midlands teams are stronger.

Football is a traditionally national sport Rugby League isnít, thatís weak comparison.


(This post was edited by Cris on Jun 18, 2019, 1:19 PM)


multilevel
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Jun 18, 2019, 2:32 PM

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Post #40 of 57 (958 views)
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Re: [Cris] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
... The south has half of the population and two thirds of the clubs, Iím not sure anyone can really argue it isnít significantly over represented.

I can argue that basing a decision just on these facts is over-simplifying things.

By the same argument we should be saying that the Rugby League authorities must take steps to promote masses of southern-based teams at the expense of northern teams.


Population is a good proxy, but is not the only facts to look at, the development of the pyramid over the last 20 plus years has significantly benefited the progress of clubs in the south. Results between teams at the same level have also shown that generally northern/Midlands teams are stronger.

Football is a traditionally national sport Rugby League isnít, thatís weak comparison.

The history of football in England certainly does NOT lead one to believe that it is a sport with an even geographical ratio of clubs to population.

You say "the development of the pyramid over the last 20 plus years has significantly benefited the progress of clubs in the south". Can you please point out the changes to the pyramid this century which have lead to clubs in the south having promotion opportunities denied to those in the north?


Cris
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Jun 18, 2019, 3:03 PM

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Post #41 of 57 (929 views)
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Re: [multilevel] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
... The south has half of the population and two thirds of the clubs, Iím not sure anyone can really argue it isnít significantly over represented.

I can argue that basing a decision just on these facts is over-simplifying things.

By the same argument we should be saying that the Rugby League authorities must take steps to promote masses of southern-based teams at the expense of northern teams.


Population is a good proxy, but is not the only facts to look at, the development of the pyramid over the last 20 plus years has significantly benefited the progress of clubs in the south. Results between teams at the same level have also shown that generally northern/Midlands teams are stronger.

Football is a traditionally national sport Rugby League isnít, thatís weak comparison.

The history of football in England certainly does NOT lead one to believe that it is a sport with an even geographical ratio of clubs to population.

You say "the development of the pyramid over the last 20 plus years has significantly benefited the progress of clubs in the south". Can you please point out the changes to the pyramid this century which have lead to clubs in the south having promotion opportunities denied to those in the north?


Iíll give you a couple.

The isthmian restructure in 2002, which both moved a whole division worth of clubs up a level it also moved its feeder leagues up a level providing more clubs promotion opportunities to a higher level of the pyramid then theyíd formally had, putting them on even footing with much stronger leagues in the north and midlands.

Over recent years and agin this year teams from outside the NLS and brand new clubs have regularly been given places at step 6 leagues in the south of the country whilst there are dozens of clubs at step 7 in the north and Midlands with appropriate facilities not being promoted.


PaulC
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Jun 18, 2019, 4:44 PM

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Post #42 of 57 (854 views)
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Re: [Cris] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Distribution of Step 5 clubs (based on wazzafan's data), showing the population per club, by county and region.






Cris
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Jun 18, 2019, 5:33 PM

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Post #43 of 57 (794 views)
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In Reply To
The Northern League does well in the Vase implying that the step 5 is tougher in the north east than elsewhere.
Do other FA competition results give any evidence about the relative strengths on same level leagues in different regions? If the pyramid is 'fair' the leagues at a level should be of similar quality.


I think a better comparison than cup competitions is to look at leagues where they cross regions/feeder leagues. The Southern League D1 Central for instance.


Richard Rundle
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Jun 18, 2019, 6:17 PM

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Re: [PaulC] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

From those figures the most important thing I can say is that Cornwall is under-represented!


PaulC
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Jun 18, 2019, 6:22 PM

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Post #45 of 57 (738 views)
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From those figures the most important thing I can say is that Cornwall is under-represented!


Or Gtr Manchester - 2.8 m - 3 teams,
Kent + Surrey 3.0 m - 28 teams
W+E Sussex 1.8m 18 teams


(This post was edited by PaulC on Jun 18, 2019, 6:24 PM)


blackdouglas
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Jun 18, 2019, 9:20 PM

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Post #46 of 57 (623 views)
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Re: [Cris] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


Quote
The Isthmian restructure in 2002, which both moved a whole division worth of clubs up a level it also moved its feeder leagues up a level providing more clubs promotion opportunities to a higher level of the pyramid then theyíd formally had, putting them on even footing with much stronger leagues in the north and midlands.




The Isthmian restructure only lifted it's feeder leagues to the same level as the Southern League's south-eastern feeder County Leagues. If it hadn't there would still have been an Isthmian Two covering the area Bedford to Lewes, and Wivenhoe to Hungerford.


Please Stop blaming the Isthmian League for all the woes of the imbalance of the pyramid and start looking closer to home.

The Midland Alliance (now Midland League Premier) was formed when the the Southern League had nine feeder leagues "to provide one strong promotion candidate from the Midland Region" when the Southern League only relegated a maximum of 4 clubs. There is currently no need for a Step 5 division to cover the area this division covers.

The NWCL was formed in the early 80s when its top flight was Step 3. It is now Step 5 and the top flight STILL covers the same area when it was Step 3. Like the MLP there is no reason for this division to cover the same area when it was two steps higher in the pyramid.

The NCEL has exactly the same history as the NWCL.

These three leagues were empire builders in their day, now the empires are now longer required there are still those who hold onto the old ways.




Northwood, Threave Rovers, Arsenal, Rangers (the real ones, NOT qpr),Watford, Rochdale, queen of the south and a few others.


Cris
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Jun 18, 2019, 9:27 PM

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Post #47 of 57 (612 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Quote
The Isthmian restructure in 2002, which both moved a whole division worth of clubs up a level it also moved its feeder leagues up a level providing more clubs promotion opportunities to a higher level of the pyramid then theyíd formally had, putting them on even footing with much stronger leagues in the north and midlands.




The Isthmian restructure only lifted it's feeder leagues to the same level as the Southern League's south-eastern feeder County Leagues. If it hadn't there would still have been an Isthmian Two covering the area Bedford to Lewes, and Wivenhoe to Hungerford.


Please Stop blaming the Isthmian League for all the woes of the imbalance of the pyramid and start looking closer to home.

The Midland Alliance (now Midland League Premier) was formed when the the Southern League had nine feeder leagues "to provide one strong promotion candidate from the Midland Region" when the Southern League only relegated a maximum of 4 clubs. There is currently no need for a Step 5 division to cover the area this division covers.

The NWCL was formed in the early 80s when its top flight was Step 3. It is now Step 5 and the top flight STILL covers the same area when it was Step 3. Like the MLP there is no reason for this division to cover the same area when it was two steps higher in the pyramid.

The NCEL has exactly the same history as the NWCL.

These three leagues were empire builders in their day, now the empires are now longer required there are still those who hold onto the old ways.


Iím not blaming anyone, But thank you for providing more reasons for the current imbalance.


markust
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Jun 18, 2019, 9:52 PM

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Post #48 of 57 (577 views)
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Quote

The Midland Alliance (now Midland League Premier) was formed when the the Southern League had nine feeder leagues "to provide one strong promotion candidate from the Midland Region" when the Southern League only relegated a maximum of 4 clubs. There is currently no need for a Step 5 division to cover the area this division covers.

The NWCL was formed in the early 80s when its top flight was Step 3. It is now Step 5 and the top flight STILL covers the same area when it was Step 3. Like the MLP there is no reason for this division to cover the same area when it was two steps higher in the pyramid.

The NCEL has exactly the same history as the NWCL.

These three leagues were empire builders in their day, now the empires are now longer required there are still those who hold onto the old ways.


Two of those leagues have probably promoted the most sides of any step 5 leagues in the country. If they were empire building then surely they would be declining promotion.


blackdouglas
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Jun 18, 2019, 10:31 PM

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Post #49 of 57 (526 views)
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Re: [markust] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


Quote
Two of those leagues have probably promoted the most sides of any step 5 leagues in the country. If they were empire building then surely they would be declining promotion.


True the leagues haven't prevented clubs from passing through on the way up, but there are no other avenues of progress in those geographic areas.



Northwood, Threave Rovers, Arsenal, Rangers (the real ones, NOT qpr),Watford, Rochdale, queen of the south and a few others.


multilevel
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Jun 18, 2019, 11:34 PM

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Post #50 of 57 (454 views)
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Re: [Cris] Synopsis on FALC's suggested three new Step4&5 divisions [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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...
Iíll give you a couple.

The isthmian restructure in 2002, which both moved a whole division worth of clubs up a level it also moved its feeder leagues up a level providing more clubs promotion opportunities to a higher level of the pyramid then theyíd formally had, putting them on even footing with much stronger leagues in the north and midlands.

Over recent years and agin this year teams from outside the NLS and brand new clubs have regularly been given places at step 6 leagues in the south of the country whilst there are dozens of clubs at step 7 in the north and Midlands with appropriate facilities not being promoted.

Yes, the Isthmian League elevated clubs to step 4 in 2002. Of course, the Northern Premier League did the same in 2007 and the FA allowing this doesn't fit with your southern bias theory.

I will agree with you on the advantage that clubs outside the pyramid have in getting into step 6. It is certainly unfair that clubs at step 7 need to win promotion to step 6 while if you've enough money you can effectively buy a place in step 6 from outside the system. I've not looked at whether more southern clubs have benefited from this but we're talking pretty small numbers and it's not evidence of an inbuilt bias.

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