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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Non League Projections 2019/20

 

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paulh66
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Jan 9, 2019, 3:40 PM

Posts: 17867
Location: Surrey
Team(s): Tranmere Rovers, South Liverpool (the South will rise again), Cammell Laird

Post #176 of 243 (8285 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The word stagnation has negative connotations. There is nothing negative about a club not wishing to overstretch itself - quite the opposite, it's responsible and, as Wren's record since leaving the NWC 20 years ago has shown, sustainable. And they're not hampering anyone else's ambitions to move up, as the likes of Charnock, Garstang and Longridge have shown. Others will probably follow.

Waterloo Dock are reportedly tempted to move up but they already share with Lower Breck so the incremental costs of doing so will be much reduced.

From my own neck of the woods, traditional county league powerhouses like Lairds and Vauxhall obviously have moved up, not without taking their time or giving it great thought, and not without some considerable hardship along the way (Lairds have since taken a two division drop and Vauxhalls dropped from step 2 to step 7, both because of the sustainability issue). Other powerhouses like Poulton Vics, St Dominics, Earle etc have long gone, but this was nothing to do with not wanting to progress up the pyramid. The Dock might have gone likewise were it not for the new facility they now share, a hundred yards or so across the field from their spiritual home at the now-shut Dockers Club.

The point is, it's volunteer enthusiasm and the availability and quality of grass root facilities that are amongst the key factors to the sustainability of step 7 clubs, not some perceived lack of ambition - ambition which, in itself, would threaten the future of the club rather than ensure its sustainability. I doubt there are many, if any, step 7 clubs whose demise resulted, either directly or indirectly, from their unwillingness to move up the pyramid.

As for Blackpool Wren Rovers, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, you've got to trust that their officials have a very clear understanding of what's in the club's best interests for both the short and long term, and are acting accordingly.


Richard Rundle
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Jan 9, 2019, 3:42 PM

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Post #177 of 243 (8281 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Carharrack's downturn in fortunes is nothing do with "stagnation" because they haven't gone up. The manager and most of the players left to go to another club who were waving money at them, a team in the same division.

I believe the club do want to move up, but when the funds allow. They've been upgrading their lovely little ground in pieces over the last few years but won't bankrupt the club just to make a point.


oftenscore6
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Jan 9, 2019, 4:42 PM

Posts: 5017
Location: Saddleworth
Team(s): FCUM, MUFC, Hammarby, St Pauli, Hawthorn (AFL)

Post #178 of 243 (8185 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I'd venture Wren Rovers staying at the same level they've been playing at successfully for the last 20 years, 11 of it in the top 2, is less risky than taking promotion to a level of increased travelling (even if better than before this season) and a need to meet higher ground standards. They will have met the standards 20 years ago but things change and largely in ground requirements, have increased. It might be they'd have work on dressing rooms to do if they moved up, even if the spectator facilities are already perfectly good (and well worth a visit).
I suspect that with AFC Blackpool and Squires Gate so close (next door for the latter), if a player wants to play NWCFL, he can choose to do so very easily. Wren Rovers may actually be able to attract players who don't want to travel as far, or play as many midweek games later in the evening
The simple way for the FA to remove any potential blocking aspect would be to promote the highest applicant from the division, should they still wish to move up, regardless of what position that is in the division (unless relegation spot, I guess).



-----------------------------------------------
Last new football ground (867) Inver Park, Larne Larne 3-1 Ballyclare Comrades
With FC United: 130
On the agenda:
10/1 Wombwell Town v Sheffield Bankers
11/1 Goytre United v Briton Ferry
12/1 Haverfordwest v Cambrian & Clydach Vale; Carmarthen Town v Connahhs Quay Nomads


Jimbo
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Jan 9, 2019, 5:30 PM

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Post #179 of 243 (8106 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Waterloo Dock are reportedly tempted to move up but they already share with Lower Breck so the incremental costs of doing so will be much reduced.


This would seem like as good a time as any for them to make the jump. Whilst their esteemed position in the local amateur game looks to form a pretty large part of their identity, the Liverpool County Premier is weakening season-on-season and a certain lack of depth is starting to become apparent.

Over on the Wirral, it is good to see that Ashville are making plans. They seem to have the foundations in place, having also taken things slowly. If they are successful in moving up, that would surely make them the first Wallasey side in a very long while to play above county level.


wazzafan
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Jan 9, 2019, 5:52 PM

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Post #180 of 243 (8062 views)
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Re: [Jimbo] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.



Non League Projections - 2018/19: http://goo.gl/5UvkvE

Step 1: http://goo.gl/9QipfY
Step 2: http://goo.gl/VoE1oY
Step 3: http://goo.gl/Ru3jUk
Step 4: http://goo.gl/QHVmDA
Step 5: http://goo.gl/VrnrYg
Step 6: http://goo.gl/Mk86of


BillShep
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Jan 9, 2019, 6:31 PM

Posts: 113
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Team(s): City of Liverpool FC

Post #181 of 243 (8008 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Evening Wazza,

Enjoy your posts and the charts. I'm a bit confused about your selections in the NWCFL though. The Premier has one up, hopefully City of Liverpool and one coming down from above, looking like Skelmersdale United.
The confusion is the teams you have showing as promoted from Division 1 North and South. I am sure you are aware that this season two are relegated and there is only one up from each division with no play-offs this year.
I notice though that you have three promoted into the Premier but you only show two relegated into Division 1 North so something is amiss somewhere.



----------------------------------------------------------
North West Counties Premier Division 2018/19

City of Liverpool FC - Debut season 2016/17

46th ground watching CoLFC - Brookburn Road, West Didsbury & Chorlton
Latest new ground, 71st - Heron Eccles Sports Hub, CoLFC U19's





windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 9, 2019, 8:03 PM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #182 of 243 (7918 views)
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Re: [BillShep] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Evening Wazza,

Enjoy your posts and the charts. I'm a bit confused about your selections in the NWCFL though. The Premier has one up, hopefully City of Liverpool and one coming down from above, looking like Skelmersdale United.
The confusion is the teams you have showing as promoted from Division 1 North and South. I am sure you are aware that this season two are relegated and there is only one up from each division with no play-offs this year.
I notice though that you have three promoted into the Premier but you only show two relegated into Division 1 North so something is amiss somewhere.



This wiki page that drawoh(From this parish)has created, shows which teams are in line for promotion from each step. Initially 28 teams were guaranteed promotion from step 6. They are the 19 champions & the 9 best runners up on a ppg basis. The SWPL clubs can refuse promotion, because of there locality. So at the moment 18 champions & 10 runners up will be promoted. Thamesmead folding at step 4, increases the step 6 promotion places by 1. So 11 runners up are now in-line for promotion. The NWCL1S runners up are one of those unlucky 7 runners up. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/...awoh46/sandbox/Step6


(This post was edited by windydcfc on Jan 9, 2019, 8:05 PM)


BDA_85
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Jan 10, 2019, 9:24 AM

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Post #183 of 243 (7469 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Talking to some Walsall Wood officials last night at their match, they seemed to indicate that they would be applying for promotion. Looks likely they will finish 2nd behind Ilkeston Town this season.


kirby knitters
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Jan 10, 2019, 9:29 AM

Posts: 16417
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Team(s): Hinckley United FC.

Post #184 of 243 (7460 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Looks like they will finish 2nd behind Ilkeston Town? Long long way to go before we start looking at final placements but seeing as we are then Shepshed are 3 points behind them with 3 games in hand and the can also be taken by Sphinx.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 10, 2019, 10:11 AM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #185 of 243 (7401 views)
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Re: [BDA_85] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Talking to some Walsall Wood officials last night at their match, they seemed to indicate that they would be applying for promotion. Looks likely they will finish 2nd behind Ilkeston Town this season.



They wouldn’t need to ‘apply for promotion’. There’s only one promotion spot per step 5 league & its compulsory promotion for the champions.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 10, 2019, 10:15 AM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #186 of 243 (7392 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I’ve been told that the FA are having a meeting on the 16th & the step 7 promotion applicants list won’t be released until after this.


BillShep
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Jan 10, 2019, 1:11 PM

Posts: 113
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Post #187 of 243 (7216 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Afternoon...

This wiki page that drawoh(From this parish)has created, shows which teams are in line for promotion from each step. Initially 28 teams were guaranteed promotion from step 6. They are the 19 champions & the 9 best runners up on a ppg basis. The SWPL clubs can refuse promotion, because of there locality. So at the moment 18 champions & 10 runners up will be promoted. Thamesmead folding at step 4, increases the step 6 promotion places by 1. So 11 runners up are now in-line for promotion. The NWCL1S runners up are one of those unlucky 7 runners up. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/...awoh46/sandbox/Step6

There is still something wrong though. NWCFL will promote it's Champions and will almost certainly be replaced by the bottom team in the West division above.
There are only two teams being relegated from the NWCFL Premier and only the Champions from Division North/South are being promoted this season. For this season the clubs have been told that there are not any play-offs. With only two being relegated there will also not be any PPG runner-up being promoted. The Premier Division will not have any space.

Just found this statement.
http://www.hallmarksecurityleague.com/news-articles.php?id=6827

Only North/South Champions being promoted for the time being.

My initial comment was about your projections showing three promoted but only two relegated so a team is missing somewhere.

Just looked at the Premier team by team and you have missed Silsden out.

I'm not arguing or trying to be clever with you, but like yourself, I like things to be correct and easily understood.
Keep up the good work Windy...



----------------------------------------------------------
North West Counties Premier Division 2018/19

City of Liverpool FC - Debut season 2016/17

46th ground watching CoLFC - Brookburn Road, West Didsbury & Chorlton
Latest new ground, 71st - Heron Eccles Sports Hub, CoLFC U19's





windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 10, 2019, 1:23 PM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #188 of 243 (7201 views)
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Re: [BillShep] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Afternoon...

This wiki page that drawoh(From this parish)has created, shows which teams are in line for promotion from each step. Initially 28 teams were guaranteed promotion from step 6. They are the 19 champions & the 9 best runners up on a ppg basis. The SWPL clubs can refuse promotion, because of there locality. So at the moment 18 champions & 10 runners up will be promoted. Thamesmead folding at step 4, increases the step 6 promotion places by 1. So 11 runners up are now in-line for promotion. The NWCL1S runners up are one of those unlucky 7 runners up. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/...awoh46/sandbox/Step6

There is still something wrong though. NWCFL will promote it's Champions and will almost certainly be replaced by the bottom team in the West division above.
There are only two teams being relegated from the NWCFL Premier and only the Champions from Division North/South are being promoted this season. For this season the clubs have been told that there are not any play-offs. With only two being relegated there will also not be any PPG runner-up being promoted. The Premier Division will not have any space.

Just found this statement.
http://www.hallmarksecurityleague.com/news-articles.php?id=6827

Only North/South Champions being promoted for the time being.

My initial comment was about your projections showing three promoted but only two relegated so a team is missing somewhere.

Just looked at the Premier team by team and you have missed Silsden out.

I'm not arguing or trying to be clever with you, but like yourself, I like things to be correct and easily understood.
Keep up the good work Windy...



He’s moved Silsden over to the NCEL Prem. The NWCL Prem was always likely to lose a team or two to lateral transfers. With only 2 teams being relegated & 1 being promoted. Being replaced by either 2,3 or 4 step 6 clubs & the NPL1W currently with 18 ex-NWCL relegating 2 clubs.


BillShep
Youth Team Sub

Jan 10, 2019, 3:16 PM

Posts: 113
Location: Anfield, Liverpool
Team(s): City of Liverpool FC

Post #189 of 243 (7060 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Forgot about lateralls..
So a lateral might possibly create a few more options.
If Silsden do move sideways is it possible then that two might come down, rather than have three promoted.
Personally, I would be surprised if Silsden, or any Premier club made a sideways move. But never say never, soon see won't we..



----------------------------------------------------------
North West Counties Premier Division 2018/19

City of Liverpool FC - Debut season 2016/17

46th ground watching CoLFC - Brookburn Road, West Didsbury & Chorlton
Latest new ground, 71st - Heron Eccles Sports Hub, CoLFC U19's





windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 10, 2019, 3:43 PM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #190 of 243 (7027 views)
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Re: [BillShep] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Forgot about lateralls..
So a lateral might possibly create a few more options.
If Silsden do move sideways is it possible then that two might come down, rather than have three promoted.
Personally, I would be surprised if Silsden, or any Premier club made a sideways move. But never say never, soon see won't we..



The FA are going to have a maximum of 20 clubs per step 5 division. So the NWCL is bound to lose some clubs laterally. The current clubs in the firing line are Whitchurch Alport, Hanley Town(if they avoid the drop) & Silsden. Rob’s placed Kendal into the NL1, but I think it’s unlikely & I’d say that they’ll end up in the NWCL. It’s quite easy for the FALC to laterally transfer teams into neighbouring leagues. Because those clubs aren’t too far away from those leagues. I think the biggest issue is the NL & the fact that it’ll need 2 extra clubs. Will they move teams like Knaresborough & Yorkshire Amateurs. Or will they break their promotion criteria & promote the NL2 runners up? Even if they aren’t one of the best runners up on a ppg basis? Or could they run short next season?


oftenscore6
Chelsea Transfer Target

Jan 10, 2019, 4:07 PM

Posts: 5017
Location: Saddleworth
Team(s): FCUM, MUFC, Hammarby, St Pauli, Hawthorn (AFL)

Post #191 of 243 (6987 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I'd have Gloucester in the Southern Premier Central in place of Bishops Stortford, even if they move back to Gliucester itself. We should think of that as a Conference North feeder and Gloucester fit that better. Bishops Strotford could go Isthmian and someone move across from there into Southern Premier South to replace Gloucester.



-----------------------------------------------
Last new football ground (867) Inver Park, Larne Larne 3-1 Ballyclare Comrades
With FC United: 130
On the agenda:
10/1 Wombwell Town v Sheffield Bankers
11/1 Goytre United v Briton Ferry
12/1 Haverfordwest v Cambrian & Clydach Vale; Carmarthen Town v Connahhs Quay Nomads


keneastlancs
Reserve Team Sub

Jan 10, 2019, 10:18 PM

Posts: 506
Location: Darwen Lancashire
Team(s): all non league - especially north western teams

Post #192 of 243 (6644 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Why do Stourbridge miss out on promotion when according to your own projection charts they have better ppg than taunton?


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 11, 2019, 10:05 AM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #193 of 243 (6247 views)
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Re: [keneastlancs] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Why do Stourbridge miss out on promotion when according to your own projection charts they have better ppg than taunton?



Unless I’m mistaken, has Rob regionalised the playoffs(NPL+SLC & SLS+ILP)? It probably makes sense that this will occur, but I don’t think it’s actually been determined.


hawkwind
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Jan 11, 2019, 11:24 AM

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Post #194 of 243 (6103 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Why do Stourbridge miss out on promotion when according to your own projection charts they have better ppg than taunton?



Unless I’m mistaken, has Rob regionalised the playoffs(NPL+SLC & SLS+ILP)? It probably makes sense that this will occur, but I don’t think it’s actually been determined.


From the NLS regulations for 2018-19 as per June 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. . The ties will be decided by the Committee pairing Clubs on the most suitable geographical basis. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

From the FA handbook November 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

No idea why the difference, when it occurred, or what it means (decision by FALC? random draw? automatic by PPG? mini-league of 4?)

(This post was edited by hawkwind on Jan 11, 2019, 11:28 AM)


Brightside
Junior Team Regular

Jan 11, 2019, 11:52 AM

Posts: 39
Location: North Essex
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Post #195 of 243 (6063 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Spreadsheet looks good, can anybody point me in the direction of the maps though?



Creating an additional step 5 league in the midlands

Step 5: https://drive.google.com/...3qVU&usp=sharing
Step 6: https://drive.google.com/...BAev&usp=sharing


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Jan 11, 2019, 4:34 PM

Posts: 9697
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #196 of 243 (5761 views)
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Re: [hawkwind] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Why do Stourbridge miss out on promotion when according to your own projection charts they have better ppg than taunton?



Unless I’m mistaken, has Rob regionalised the playoffs(NPL+SLC & SLS+ILP)? It probably makes sense that this will occur, but I don’t think it’s actually been determined.


From the NLS regulations for 2018-19 as per June 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. . The ties will be decided by the Committee pairing Clubs on the most suitable geographical basis. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

From the FA handbook November 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

No idea why the difference, when it occurred, or what it means (decision by FALC? random draw? automatic by PPG? mini-league of 4?)



So I was correct in the assumption that the FA will decide which clubs play each other on a geographical basis. That’ll be exactly what I said, the NPL v SLC & SLS v ILP. The only difference is the single game finals will be decided on a ppg basis.


keneastlancs
Reserve Team Sub

Jan 11, 2019, 4:37 PM

Posts: 506
Location: Darwen Lancashire
Team(s): all non league - especially north western teams

Post #197 of 243 (5755 views)
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Re: [hawkwind] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Spreadsheet & Maps updated. Apologies for the delay I've had Work, Family & Holiday commitments.


Why do Stourbridge miss out on promotion when according to your own projection charts they have better ppg than taunton?



Unless I’m mistaken, has Rob regionalised the playoffs(NPL+SLC & SLS+ILP)? It probably makes sense that this will occur, but I don’t think it’s actually been determined.


From the NLS regulations for 2018-19 as per June 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. . The ties will be decided by the Committee pairing Clubs on the most suitable geographical basis. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

From the FA handbook November 2018
"The Step 3 Divisional Play Off Winners will play a further match against each other. The ties will be played on a single match basis with the home Club being the Club with the best points per match ratio in the Regular Season."

No idea why the difference, when it occurred, or what it means (decision by FALC? random draw? automatic by PPG? mini-league of 4?)


so stiurbridge is worse off than warrington so lose out despite being better than taunton on PPG because they are better than dorking so warrington go up as 'northern' and taunton as 'Southern' this is rather unfair and strange and if they did just on PPG there would likely be no need to move a southern club (oxford) to national north next season as Stourbridge could fill that vacancy.


THDrummer1
Ballboy/girl

Jan 14, 2019, 8:18 AM

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Post #198 of 243 (2825 views)
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Re: [wazzafan] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Hi Wazza,
Great work re the maps and spreadsheets.
Excuse my ignorance on this but are the Notts based clubs in the NCEL1 definitely being laterally moved to the EMCL?
Cheers


BillShep
Youth Team Sub

Jan 15, 2019, 3:23 PM

Posts: 113
Location: Anfield, Liverpool
Team(s): City of Liverpool FC

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Re: [THDrummer1] Non League Projections 2019/20 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I was talking to someone over the weekend who says that South Liverpool are making plans to enter the NWCFL. They have just moved along the road to Jericho Lane Football Hub but I don't think that the ground meets the correct standards yet. So he might be meaning preparing for season 2020/21 as they should have already applied to play in the League for next season. which I don't think they have.



----------------------------------------------------------
North West Counties Premier Division 2018/19

City of Liverpool FC - Debut season 2016/17

46th ground watching CoLFC - Brookburn Road, West Didsbury & Chorlton
Latest new ground, 71st - Heron Eccles Sports Hub, CoLFC U19's





Jimbo
Youth Team Sub

Jan 15, 2019, 6:21 PM

Posts: 141
Location: Liverpool
Team(s):

Post #200 of 243 (1822 views)
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In Reply To
I was talking to someone over the weekend who says that South Liverpool are making plans to enter the NWCFL. They have just moved along the road to Jericho Lane Football Hub but I don't think that the ground meets the correct standards yet. So he might be meaning preparing for season 2020/21 as they should have already applied to play in the League for next season. which I don't think they have.


The NWCFL Development Officer (@garylangley) has put out a handful of tweets on this in recent weeks. His basic message is that achieving Grade H at the site shall be difficult, but not impossible. Depending upon how similar the layout is to its sister facility at Fazakerley, there are a number of obstacles which will need to be overcome. 2020-21 shall seem most likely, at the earliest.

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