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Euro 2020 Qualifying

 



007Dale
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Sep 4, 2017, 8:20 PM

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Euro 2020 Qualifying Can't Post or Reply Privately

Whilst looking at the WC qualifying, I stumbled upon the revised qualification procedure for the 2020 Euro's and its fair to say I had to have an extended lie-down having tried to work through it. Apologies if it's been posted elsewhere, but here is my attempt to decipher it:

There is a 2 stage process starting with the inaugural UEFA Nations league in 2018/19.

There will be four divisions (2 of 12, 1 of 15 and 1 of 16). The determination of the divisions will be taken from rankings after the qualification process for the WC. Presumably this means the top 12 ranked European nations will occupy division A and so on. Each division is split into four groups (seeded draw, I assume) and teams play each other twice (4 games in group of 3 and 6 in a group of 4)

The winners of each group in Division A then play in the Division playoffs in June 19, a semi-final and final (4 teams). The winner crowned UEFA nations league champions.

The winners of Division A groups are also guaranteed a 5-team rather than 6-team euro 2020 qualifying group as the 6-team groups will play a round of matches in June 19 (same time as the nations league finals).

The teams that finish bottom of their divisional groups are relegated and top teams promoted (I.e four promoted and four relegated from each division).

We'll get back to the Nations league in a minute...

So then we get phase 2, which is the official qualifying phase for Euro 2020.

10 groups of either 5 or 6 with the top two teams qualifying for the finals. Games starting in March 19 through to November 19. Groups aren't drawn until after the Nations League finishes.

So by November 19 we know 20 teams that will be in Euro 2020.

Now back to the Nations League for the remaining spaces:

Each division will be guaranteed a place at Euro 2020. This means that a team ranked in the bottom 16 European teams of FIFA rankings will be in the finals. How does it work?
1. The top four teams in each division (that haven't already qualified) will participate in one-off semi finals and finals. The winners of each four finals will then take the remaining four places.
2. If a division hasn't got four teams left that haven't already qualified, (most likely the Division A will not have four remaining) then the places are filled with the next division down. In reality this means that teams in division A will always get a 'second chance' to qualify.
3. Matches take place in March 20.

I think that's it. But I may have missed something.


(This post was edited by 007Dale on Sep 4, 2017, 8:24 PM)


Tykeoldboy
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Sep 4, 2017, 11:23 PM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Well done on explaining that and not once did you mention the Spanish Inquisition.


leohoenig
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Sep 5, 2017, 4:16 AM

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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

except the dates of the last finishes, which of course are two games in the March international window, I think you have it sorted.
I have seen it suggested that the one off games in March could each be stage in a single country.

I think UEFA will eventually rethink allowing the "minnows place", but clearly it is there for 2020
I am expecting a 2021 Nations League to form part of the 2022 World Cup Qualifying, but UEFA have not confirmed this



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007Dale
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Sep 6, 2017, 6:12 AM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Regarding the first phase, UEFA will use their own coefficient system to determine the rankings, not the FIFA rankings. This places greater emphasis on longer-term results, using 40% for the current WC qualifiers, 40% for Euro 2016 and 20% for WC 2014.

It's list is also only published every two years (in November). A couple of websites do estimate it and based on the latest results, the divisions would look like this;

Division A:
1. Germany
2. Portugal
3. Belgium
4. Spain
5. England
6. Switzerland
7. Italy
8. France
9. Poland
10. Russia
11. Croatia
12. Iceland

Division B
1. Wales
2. Holland
3. Slovakia
4. Northern Ireland
5. Sweden
6. Ukraine
7. Bosnia Herzegovina
8. Austria
9. Turkey
10. Rep of Ireland
11. Denmark
12. Hungary

Division C
1. Slovenia
2. Albania
3. Czech Republic
4. Romania
5. Scotland
6. Montenegro
7. Serbia
8. Greece
9. Bulgaria
10. Norway
11. Israel
12. Finland
13. Cyprus
14. Estonia
15. Azerbaijan

Division D
1. Lithuania
2. Belarus
3. Georgia
4. Armenia
5. Macedonia
6. Fareo Islands
7. Latvia
8. Luxembourg
9. Moldova
10. Kazakhstan
11. Liechtenstein
12. Malta
13. Andorra
14. Kosovo
15. San Marino
16. Gibraltar

Looking at how the points accumulate, I'd say the top ten of Division A are locked in. However, any of the top 8 in division B could make the top division if they have 2 good results in the final round of matches


007Dale
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Sep 6, 2017, 8:57 AM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Assuming they use the UEFA rankings to seed the pools in each division, the make-up of the Nations League Poools could looks something like this when the draw is made:

Group A-i
Germany
England
Poland

Group A-ii
Portugal
Switzerland
Russia

Group A-iii
Belgium
Italy
Croatia

Group A-iv
Spain
France
Iceland

Group B-i
Wales
Sweden
Turkey

Group B-ii
Holland
Ukraine
Rep of Ireland

Group B-iii
Slovakia
Bosnia H
Denmark

Group B-iv
Northern Ireland
Austria
Hungary

Group C-i
Slovenia
Scotland
Bulgaria
Cyprus

Group C-ii
Albania
Montenegro
Norway
Estonia

Group C-iii
Czech Rep
Serbia
Israel
Azerbaijan

Group C-iv
Romania
Greece
Finland

Group D-i
Lithuania
Macedonia
Moldova
Andorra

Group D-ii
Belarus
Fareo Islands
Kazakhstan
Kosovo

Group D-iii
Georgia
Latvia
Liechtenstein
San Marino

Group D-iv
Armenia
Luxembourg
Malta
Gibraltar


Chris M
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Sep 6, 2017, 12:25 PM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

This has the actual current provisional standing from UEFA. Wales sneak into Pot A atm, ahead of Russia, as one change.


007Dale
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Sep 6, 2017, 1:59 PM

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Re: [Chris M] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
This has the actual current provisional standing from UEFA. Wales sneak into Pot A atm, ahead of Russia, as one change.


Ah, good find, wasn't sure they issued provisional rankings.

Upon reading further, the seeding pots for Euro 2020 qualifiers will directly link to the Nations League. This means ten of the division A teams will be top-ranked. Presumably 2 of the four bottom teams miss out based on PPG and other measures.

However, FIFA will still insist on using their ranking system for determining seeds for World Cup qualifying for 2022.


Tykeoldboy
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Sep 6, 2017, 4:26 PM

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Post #8 of 20 (8325 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Using the provisional rankings as of 6/9/2017

Group A-i
Germany
Switzerland
Poland

Group A-ii
Portugal
France
Croatia

Group A-iii
Belgium
England
Iceland

Group A-iv
Spain
Italy
Wales

Group B-i
Russia
Netherlands
Turkey

Group B-ii
Northern Ireland
Ukraine
Republic of Ireland

Group B-iii
Slovakia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Denmark

Group B-iv
Sweden
Austria
Hungary

Group C-i
Slovenia
Scotland
Bulgaria
Finland

Group C-ii
Albania
Czech Republic
Israel
Estonia

Group C-iii
Montenegro
Romania
Norway
Azerbaijan

Group C-iv
Serbia
Greece
Cyprus

Group D-i
Lithuania
FYR Macedonia
Moldova
Malta

Group D-ii
Belarus
Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan
Kosovo

Grou D-iii
Georgia
Luxembourg
Liechtenstein
San Marino

Group D-iv
Armenia
Latvia
Andorra
Gibraltar

These groups throw up some interesting fixtures and a tough group for Wales, although reading the UEFA website does indicate that each group will be decided by a draw and not by ranking.


(This post was edited by Tykeoldboy on Sep 6, 2017, 4:29 PM)


007Dale
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Oct 11, 2017, 12:32 PM

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Post #9 of 20 (7676 views)
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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The Leagues have now been determined:

LEAGUE A

Germany
Portugal
Belgium
Spain

France
England
Switzerland
Italy

Poland
Croatia
Iceland
Holland

LEAGUE B

Austria
Wales
Russia
Slovakia

Sweden
Ukraine
Rep of Ireland
Bosnia Herzegovina

Northern Ireland
Denmark
Czech Republic
Turkey

LEAGUE C

Hungary
Romania
Scotland
Slovenia

Greece
Serbia
Albania
Norway

Montenegro
Israel
Bulgaria
Finland

Cyprus
Estonia
Lithuania

LEAGUE D

Azerbaijan
Macedonia
Belarus
Georgia

Armenia
Latvia
Faroe Islands
Luxembourg

Kazakhstan
Moldova
Liechtenstein
Malta

Andorra
Kosovo
San Marino
Gibraltar


(This post was edited by 007Dale on Oct 11, 2017, 12:36 PM)


Tykeoldboy
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Oct 11, 2017, 5:19 PM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

According to the UEFA website, the draw for the actual groups within each league will be made on 24 January 2018. Russia and Ukraine, both in League B can't be drawn in the same group.


Ropemaker
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Oct 11, 2017, 8:07 PM

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In Reply To
According to the UEFA website, the draw for the actual groups within each league will be made on 24 January 2018. Russia and Ukraine, both in League B can't be drawn in the same group.

Nor can Armenia and Azerbaijan be in the same group in League D

Unless the UEFA Executive Committee change their minds and deem they can be



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Spennyfan_chris
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Dec 1, 2018, 6:24 PM

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Re: [Ropemaker] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Euro 2020 Qualifying Draw is tomorrow (Sun, 2nd December) at 11am and the draw is being made in Dublin -

Uefa Nations League pot (four): Switzerland*, Portugal*, Netherlands*, England*

Pot One (six): Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Poland

Pot Two (10): Germany, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina*, Ukraine*, Denmark*, Sweden*, Russia, Austria, Wales, Czech Republic

Pot Three (10): Slovakia, Turkey, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland*, Norway*, Serbia*, Finland*, Bulgaria, Israel

Pot Four (10): Hungary, Romania, Greece, Albania, Montenegro, Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Georgia*

Pot Five (10): Macedonia*, Kosovo*, Belarus*, Luxembourg, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Gibraltar, Faroe Islands

Pot Six (five): Latvia, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Malta, San Marino

*indicates team who have already secured Euro 2020 play-off spot at least

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/46294129



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(This post was edited by Spennyfan_chris on Dec 1, 2018, 6:32 PM)


Tykeoldboy
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Dec 1, 2018, 9:55 PM

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Re: [Spennyfan_chris] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Could end up with England, Wales, Scotland and Gibraltar in the same group


Richard Rundle
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Dec 2, 2018, 12:01 PM

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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Groups

A - England, Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo
B - Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania, Luxembourg
C - Netherlands, Germany, N Ireland, Estonia, Belarus
D - Switzerland, Denmark, Rep Ireland, Georgia, Gibraltar
E - Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan
F - Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Is, Malta
G - Poland, Austia, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia, Latvia
H - France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra
I - Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino
J - Italy, Bosnia & H, Finland, Greece, Armenia Liechtenstein

Reminder - first two in each group qualify, plus the 4 winners of the play-off tournaments based on the four leagues from the recently completed Nations League for a total of 24 qualifiers.


007Dale
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Re: [Richard Rundle] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Groups

A - England, Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo
B - Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania, Luxembourg
C - Netherlands, Germany, N Ireland, Estonia, Belarus
D - Switzerland, Denmark, Rep Ireland, Georgia, Gibraltar
E - Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan
F - Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Is, Malta
G - Poland, Austia, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia, Latvia
H - France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra
I - Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino
J - Italy, Bosnia & H, Finland, Greece, Armenia Liechtenstein

Reminder - first two in each group qualify, plus the 4 winners of the play-off tournaments based on the four leagues from the recently completed Nations League for a total of 24 qualifiers.


This will be the first time England have played Czech Republic in a competitive match since the velvet divorce.

The first time at all England have played Kosovo, who might well be a tough opponent.

Montenegro are becoming regular adversaries, this being the third time weíll have met in qualifying tournaments since their independence from Serbia in 2006.


007Dale
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Dec 3, 2018, 8:35 AM

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In Reply To
Groups

A - England, Czech Rep, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo
B - Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania, Luxembourg
C - Netherlands, Germany, N Ireland, Estonia, Belarus
D - Switzerland, Denmark, Rep Ireland, Georgia, Gibraltar
E - Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan
F - Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Is, Malta
G - Poland, Austia, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia, Latvia
H - France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra
I - Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino
J - Italy, Bosnia & H, Finland, Greece, Armenia Liechtenstein
.


Looking at the groups, iím going with the following to qualify:
England, Czech Rep
Portugal, Serbia
Holland, Germany
Switzerland, Denmark
Croatia, Wales
Spain, Sweden
Poland, Austria
France, Turkey
Belgium, Russia
Italy, Bosnia

Which if this came to pass has a bearing on the play-offs;

League A:
- Iceland would be in play-offs as only team not to qualify

League B:
- Ukraine only group winners not qualifying
- Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Rep of Ireland, only other teams not qualifying

League C:
- Serbia only Group winners to qualify

If this scenario played out, then play-offs could look like;

Group A: Iceland,
Group B: Ukraine,
Group C: Scotland, Norway, Finland,
Group D: Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus

The remaining 7 places will then go to:
Slovakia
Rep of Ireland
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Israel
Romania

Then it gets very complicated;
I believe Bulgaria, Hungary, Israel, Romania will be drawn to find who then plays in the Group C playoffs (1 of those 4)

Then they complete the B playoff, which will include Slovakia, Rep of Ireland & Northern Ireland

Finally they complete the A playoffs with Iceland, plus the remaining 3 teams not drawn into playoff C (3 of Bulgaria, Hungary, Israel, Romania)

Looking at the Euro Groups and how the playoffs work, it looks likely that both Irish teams will at least get a Play off, even if itís in the A playoff.


Ropemaker
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In Reply To
If this scenario played out, then play-offs could look like;

Group A: Iceland,
Group B: Ukraine,
Group C: Scotland, Norway, Finland,
Group D: Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus

The remaining 7 places will then go to:
Slovakia
Rep of Ireland
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Israel
Romania

Then it gets very complicated;
I believe Bulgaria, Hungary, Israel, Romania will be drawn to find who then plays in the Group C playoffs (1 of those 4)

Then they complete the B playoff, which will include Slovakia, Rep of Ireland & Northern Ireland

Finally they complete the A playoffs with Iceland, plus the remaining 3 teams not drawn into playoff C (3 of Bulgaria, Hungary, Israel, Romania)

Looking at the Euro Groups and how the playoffs work, it looks likely that both Irish teams will at least get a Play off, even if itís in the A playoff.

As I understand things, I could be wrong ...

Teams have been ranked following the Nations League (it's all on wiki), so it would be the highest ranked teams that would move up in such scenarios, no need for a random draw.

In the scenario above, Romania as the lowest ranked of the League C sides would remain at that level in the playoffs.

Of course, if both Russia and Ukraine end up in the League B playoffs, UEFA might have a rethink!



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leohoenig
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Dec 3, 2018, 1:54 PM

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Re: [Ropemaker] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Taking the scenario mentioned as a case, my understanding is this:
There are four Division B teams not qualified automatically, and hence these would play the Division B play-off

This would mean the following semi-finals, (single matches)
Ukraine v Northern Ireland
Slovakia v Republic or Ireland

Three Division C teams, Scotland, Norway and Finland have guaranteed minimum play off places, with Bulgaria next in the rankings filling the gap left if Serbia win direct qualification, so semi-finals are
Scotland v Bulgaria
Norway v Finland

The Division D will be as expected, as it is unlikely to be effected by qualifications
Georgia v Belarus
Macedonia v Kosovo

That leaves Division A, which is Iceland plus the next three Division C teams, so
Iceland v Romania
Israel v Hungary

Home advantage in the finals will be drawn next November



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007Dale
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Dec 3, 2018, 3:53 PM

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Re: [leohoenig] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The only bit thatís unclear is regarding which team are selected from Group C to stay in Group C.

Iíve seen two conflicting things where itís not 100% clear if you take next in line or there is a random draw.


hawkwind
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Dec 3, 2018, 6:12 PM

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Re: [007Dale] Euro 2020 Qualifying [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

In the example I make it exactly as leohoenig has.
If you look at the regulations the play-off draw is drawn for League D first then C then B then A.
The top 4 non-directly qualified teams by ranking enter the play-off of their level. All the teams have been ranked from 5 to 55. 1 to 4 will be decided next June in Portugal.

So only when the draw for A is about to be made would we need to look for teams from another League.
The logic for doing it like this is that when each draw is made we act as if we don't know whether any of the leagues to be drawn later would need teams from below their leagues.

 
 


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