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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
Non League Projections 2018/19

 

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dcuk
Junior Team Regular

Apr 16, 2018, 10:38 AM

Posts: 43
Location: Tonbridge
Team(s): Tonbridge Angels, Norwich City

Post #376 of 421 (2449 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

By my calculations, if only one 3rd placed team is going up automatically from Step 4, it definitely won't be a Southern League West club doing so. The best PPG a 3rd placed team can reach is 1.929, while the top three NPL North clubs will all beat that even if they lose all their remaining games.


Sarumio
Chelsea Transfer Target

Apr 16, 2018, 11:40 AM

Posts: 5555
Location: Ilminster
Team(s): Salisbury

Post #377 of 421 (2382 views)
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Re: [dcuk] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

WazzaFan,


Two quick points.


Alford should be Alfold - not that I see much point in them (or Rustington) being on this spread sheet - as neither has any chance of being promoted to Step 6 this season, due to their grounds.


Point Two is the mysterious disappearance of Shrewton United who you are no longer considering for promotion - why is this?


paulh66
Qatar World Cup bid member!


Apr 16, 2018, 11:49 AM

Posts: 16603
Location: Surrey
Team(s): Tranmere Rovers, South Liverpool (the South will rise again), Cammell Laird

Post #378 of 421 (2357 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

 
Alford should be Alfold - not that I see much point in them (or Rustington) being on this spread sheet - as neither has any chance of being promoted to Step 6 this season, due to their grounds.


Alfold have been doing extensive work on their ground with an eye on promotion. Have they too now been kicked in the teeth by the FA's demands?


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Apr 16, 2018, 12:52 PM)


Sarumio
Chelsea Transfer Target

Apr 16, 2018, 1:12 PM

Posts: 5555
Location: Ilminster
Team(s): Salisbury

Post #379 of 421 (2209 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Alford should be Alfold - not that I see much point in them (or Rustington) being on this spread sheet - as neither has any chance of being promoted to Step 6 this season, due to their grounds.


Alfold have been doing extensive work on their ground with an eye on promotion. Have they too now been kicked in the teeth by the FA's demands?


But are Alfold planning to (and will be allowed to) erect floodlights. If not then they can do all the extensive ground developments they want - it'll count for nothing as far as promotion to Step 6 is concerned...


paulh66
Qatar World Cup bid member!


Apr 16, 2018, 1:13 PM

Posts: 16603
Location: Surrey
Team(s): Tranmere Rovers, South Liverpool (the South will rise again), Cammell Laird

Post #380 of 421 (2206 views)
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Re: [Sarumio] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Yes, Alfold are well aware of the demands.


bd
Junior Team Sub


Apr 16, 2018, 3:06 PM

Posts: 24
Location: North Swindon & Carterton
Team(s): Swindon Supermarine and Reading

Post #381 of 421 (2066 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Saw something earlier suggesting that Headington, Tytherington, Woodstock AND Letcombe are all pulling out of the Hellenic Div 1 West?
Letcombe appears to have been confirmed: http://www.hellenicleague.co.uk/club_news/letcombe.html


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Apr 16, 2018, 3:33 PM

Posts: 8992
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #382 of 421 (2029 views)
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Re: [bd] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Saw something earlier suggesting that Headington, Tytherington, Woodstock AND Letcombe are all pulling out of the Hellenic Div 1 West?
Letcombe appears to have been confirmed: http://www.hellenicleague.co.uk/club_news/letcombe.html


genesimmons
Youth Team Sub

Apr 16, 2018, 9:00 PM

Posts: 166
Location: Chesterfield
Team(s): Gateshead

Post #383 of 421 (1644 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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puzzling statement from the northern league. Its crazy to think quitting the pyramid was even considered but at the same time no shock. I wonder if they will press the fa to make the league exempt from compulsory promotion which if that happened would open up a huge can of worms with clubs from other leagues.


No chance. The Northern League was the whole reason compulsory promotion from Step 5 was brought in in the first place.

Yeah I agree it must have been a big factor as it has promoted the least teams up north over the years


Yeah i've counted ten clubs in the last 30 years the NL have promoted

1987-88: Whitley Bay *
1988-89: Bishop Auckland *
1991-92: Gretna **
1993-94: Blyth Spartans
1996-97: Whitby Town
2006-07: Newcastle Blue Star **
2007-08: Durham City *
2012-13: Darlington
2013-14: Spennymoor Town
2016-17: South Shields
*** 2017-18: Morpeth Town & Marske United

* Have since returned to the Northern League
** Now defunct
*** In promotion places as it stands

NOTE: Spennymoor United were promoted from the Northern Counties East League in 1992-93 so not included

My gues was not far off. Forgot about gretna. Were they elected in ot promoted. The fact the last 3 teams promoted had previously played at a higher level in one form or another also says it all. Prior to them its only been bishop who have shown any real intrest. Will be intresting to see how 2 new teams to that level who dont want to be there get on



Other teams that have applied and then withdrew their applications(or applied too late), or even mentioned that they are interested in seeking promotion. Are as follows: Consett, Shildon & Dunston.
Shildon would accept promotion right now & West Auckland stated at the start of the season that they wanted to go up!

Out of this mentioned I think only sunstone actually applied. Bishop Auckland have applied a few times but always seem way off on the field



You wanted the best, you got the best


royboy
Reserve Team Regular

Apr 16, 2018, 11:13 PM

Posts: 583
Location: Arnold Nottingham
Team(s): Borrowash

Post #384 of 421 (1474 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


PaulC
Man City Transfer Target!


Apr 17, 2018, 8:13 AM

Posts: 9944
Location: Ayrshire, Midlothian
Team(s): AFC Darwen, Troon, Ayr Utd, Burnley

Post #385 of 421 (1281 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


petermiller36
First Team Sub

Apr 17, 2018, 9:14 AM

Posts: 981
Location: Stourbridge
Team(s): Ware & AFC Wimbledon

Post #386 of 421 (1228 views)
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Re: [dcuk] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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By my calculations, if only one 3rd placed team is going up automatically from Step 4, it definitely won't be a Southern League West club doing so. The best PPG a 3rd placed team can reach is 1.929, while the top three NPL North clubs will all beat that even if they lose all their remaining games.


Correct. Following last night's result the Isthmian Div 1 North also won't be getting that third spot. My spreadsheet shows all the PPG's as well as minimum and maximum PPG's that each club can get.



Step 4 Relegation and Step 5 Promotion Document:
http://bit.ly/2018Step4and5


Dazzla84
Youth Team Star


Apr 17, 2018, 11:30 AM

Posts: 276
Location: South Shields
Team(s): Newcastle United, South Shields FC

Post #387 of 421 (1052 views)
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Re: [petermiller36] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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By my calculations, if only one 3rd placed team is going up automatically from Step 4, it definitely won't be a Southern League West club doing so. The best PPG a 3rd placed team can reach is 1.929, while the top three NPL North clubs will all beat that even if they lose all their remaining games.


Correct. Following last night's result the Isthmian Div 1 North also won't be getting that third spot. My spreadsheet shows all the PPG's as well as minimum and maximum PPG's that each club can get.


If you calculate the PPG further you'll fins that the magic number for the NPL D1 North Top 3 to reach is 89 points. the Bostik South and North cant reach that with their maximum possible 46 game equivalent PPG's and Hartley Wintney in the 22 team leagues can still reach 88.

South Shields currently are on 88 points and play Glossop North End at home tonight, the NPL wont confirm it officially yet but if South Shields get at least a point, they'll be promoted to Step 3 no matter what.

One other thing Peter, Morpeth Town are not yet officially promoted, Newcastle Benfield can still draw level with them on 87 points with their games in hand


(This post was edited by Dazzla84 on Apr 17, 2018, 11:31 AM)


Dazzla84
Youth Team Star


Apr 17, 2018, 11:55 AM

Posts: 276
Location: South Shields
Team(s): Newcastle United, South Shields FC

Post #388 of 421 (1016 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers

Jarrow in trouble? Ive not heard anything mentioned about them.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Apr 17, 2018, 12:15 PM

Posts: 8992
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #389 of 421 (984 views)
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Re: [Dazzla84] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers

Jarrow in trouble? Ive not heard anything mentioned about them.



Jarrow just needed to achieve a G Grade by the 31st March. I think they already achieved this last year! Because they had a seated stand in place & therefore probably passed for a G Grading & bypassed the H Grading.


royboy
Reserve Team Regular

Apr 17, 2018, 12:48 PM

Posts: 583
Location: Arnold Nottingham
Team(s): Borrowash

Post #390 of 421 (893 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


Not quite norh-east sector but included in the same post for convenience sake. Know anything about them?


royboy
Reserve Team Regular

Apr 17, 2018, 1:10 PM

Posts: 583
Location: Arnold Nottingham
Team(s): Borrowash

Post #391 of 421 (852 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers

Jarrow in trouble? Ive not heard anything mentioned about them.



Jarrow just needed to achieve a G Grade by the 31st March. I think they already achieved this last year! Because they had a seated stand in place & therefore probably passed for a G Grading & bypassed the H Grading.


Did they really get a G grade whilst still in the Wearside League? Also they don't seem to have entered the Vase for which only an H, with lights, would have been needed. Do you have a source for this info please?


PaulC
Man City Transfer Target!


Apr 17, 2018, 1:13 PM

Posts: 9944
Location: Ayrshire, Midlothian
Team(s): AFC Darwen, Troon, Ayr Utd, Burnley

Post #392 of 421 (840 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


Not quite norh-east sector but included in the same post for convenience sake. Know anything about them?

No. That's why I was asking. Do you?


Dazzla84
Youth Team Star


Apr 17, 2018, 1:25 PM

Posts: 276
Location: South Shields
Team(s): Newcastle United, South Shields FC

Post #393 of 421 (798 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers

Jarrow in trouble? Ive not heard anything mentioned about them.



Jarrow just needed to achieve a G Grade by the 31st March. I think they already achieved this last year! Because they had a seated stand in place & therefore probably passed for a G Grading & bypassed the H Grading.


Did they really get a G grade whilst still in the Wearside League? Also they don't seem to have entered the Vase for which only an H, with lights, would have been needed. Do you have a source for this info please?


They've got lights and a 50 seat stand which they installed last year, the non-vase entry apparently was due to the club thinking the league did it for them


(This post was edited by Dazzla84 on Apr 17, 2018, 1:26 PM)


royboy
Reserve Team Regular

Apr 17, 2018, 3:29 PM

Posts: 583
Location: Arnold Nottingham
Team(s): Borrowash

Post #394 of 421 (615 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


Not quite norh-east sector but included in the same post for convenience sake. Know anything about them?

No. That's why I was asking. Do you?


Sorry I misunderstood the meaning of the question mark.

To answer your point I know little or nothing about any of the 4 clubs listed. If any were to have failed the G grade it would ,not only affect the individual league, but could have an effect elsewhere.

It is the stated aim of the LC to use lateral movements, wherever possible, as an alternative to relegation. Radcliffe Olympic look doomed but there remains a possible escape route. No matter how unlikely.


alan hindle
Youth Team Sub

Apr 17, 2018, 3:57 PM

Posts: 172
Location: Manchester
Team(s): Wigan Athletic

Post #395 of 421 (573 views)
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Re: [Dazzla84] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Sorry, but as South Shields only have 88pts, Hyde United in 3rd place, just outside the two automatic promotion places, currently have 83pts with three matches to play, so can get 92pts if they win all three remaining matches, so if South Shields win tonight they will only have 91pts. I could witness their promotion achievement on Saturday v Skelmersdale United at Volair Park, Prescot. Have noticed that Hyde play at Radcliffe Borough on Thursday night, and if they lose and South Shields win tonight, then South Shields will be promoted before I see them at the weekend. All in all I think I will see a very entertaining game whether or not promotion has already been achieved.


alan hindle
Youth Team Sub

Apr 17, 2018, 4:03 PM

Posts: 172
Location: Manchester
Team(s): Wigan Athletic

Post #396 of 421 (566 views)
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Re: [alan hindle] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I should have added that if South Shields win tonight and Hyde only draw on Thursday night at Radcliffe, South Shields will still be promoted, as Hyde would then only be able to get 90pts.


windydcfc
Man City Transfer Target!


Apr 17, 2018, 4:16 PM

Posts: 8992
Location: Lincoln
Team(s): Derby County FC England Borussia Mönchengladbach

Post #397 of 421 (535 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


Not quite norh-east sector but included in the same post for convenience sake. Know anything about them?

No. That's why I was asking. Do you?


Sorry I misunderstood the meaning of the question mark.

To answer your point I know little or nothing about any of the 4 clubs listed. If any were to have failed the G grade it would ,not only affect the individual league, but could have an effect elsewhere.

It is the stated aim of the LC to use lateral movements, wherever possible, as an alternative to relegation. Radcliffe Olympic look doomed but there remains a possible escape route. No matter how unlikely.



The NCEL have been told by the F.A. that clubs in relegation zones will be relegated! Only those clubs just above the relegation zones, that maybe effected with extra relegations. Will be included in the lateral movements(either directly or indirectly)!


royboy
Reserve Team Regular

Apr 17, 2018, 4:38 PM

Posts: 583
Location: Arnold Nottingham
Team(s): Borrowash

Post #398 of 421 (507 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thanks all for the info on the Hellenic league thread.

Perhaps members could now turn their attention to 4 clubs in the north-east sector similarly affected. These are as under:-

Abbey Hulton NWC1

East Yorkshire Carnegie NCE1

Swallownest NCEI

Jarrow NL2

Cheers


Abbey Hulton?


Not quite norh-east sector but included in the same post for convenience sake. Know anything about them?

No. That's why I was asking. Do you?


Sorry I misunderstood the meaning of the question mark.

To answer your point I know little or nothing about any of the 4 clubs listed. If any were to have failed the G grade it would ,not only affect the individual league, but could have an effect elsewhere.

It is the stated aim of the LC to use lateral movements, wherever possible, as an alternative to relegation. Radcliffe Olympic look doomed but there remains a possible escape route. No matter how unlikely.



The NCEL have been told by the F.A. that clubs in relegation zones will be relegated! Only those clubs just above the relegation zones, that maybe effected with extra relegations. Will be included in the lateral movements(either directly or indirectly)!


Sorry windy but that makes no sense. How could the FA say that to the NCEL but not to all the other Step 6 leagues up and down the country.


TroubleAtMill
Youth Team Sub

Apr 17, 2018, 4:41 PM

Posts: 119
Location:
Team(s):

Post #399 of 421 (495 views)
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Re: [royboy] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

It would make sense if all their clubs meet ground grading criteria.


dcuk
Junior Team Regular

Apr 17, 2018, 5:04 PM

Posts: 43
Location: Tonbridge
Team(s): Tonbridge Angels, Norwich City

Post #400 of 421 (453 views)
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Re: [alan hindle] Non League Projections 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Sorry, but as South Shields only have 88pts, Hyde United in 3rd place, just outside the two automatic promotion places, currently have 83pts with three matches to play, so can get 92pts if they win all three remaining matches, so if South Shields win tonight they will only have 91pts.


But as Dazzla84 was pointing out, 89 points will be enough to guarantee that, at an absolute minimum, their PPG will guarantee promotion as the highest 3rd place finisher.

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