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Home: Non-League Football Discussion: Restructuring Discussion:
FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19

 

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paulh66
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Dec 7, 2017, 1:25 PM

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And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.


You're probably right, but why do you think that will be the case?


Because there's no evidence to justify such a mass promotion on merit. What other reason can there be - surely not some kind of anti-north agenda?


Richard Rundle
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Dec 7, 2017, 1:32 PM

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And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.


You're probably right, but why do you think that will be the case?


Because I can not see the FALC deciding that giving preferential treatment to one region of England (whether you or I think it's needed or not) would find favour with the majority of its members.


PaulC
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And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.


You're probably right, but why do you think that will be the case?


Because there's no evidence to justify such a mass promotion on merit. What other reason can there be - surely not some kind of anti-north agenda?


Merit? How were the south-heavy Steps 3, 4 and 5 created? On merit?


paulh66
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Re: [PaulC] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

So why do you think it probably won't happen?


leohoenig
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Dec 7, 2017, 3:26 PM

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Re: [paulh66] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

There is every reason to believe there is an imbalance disadvantaging Northern clubs, and that the FA will do nothing to correct this
I believe that behind the imbalance, there are two factors

  1. The reluctance of Northern League teams to take promotion to Step 4 and above
  2. The creation of the North West Counties League and Northern Counties (East), (which happened prior to the current structure was set up)

The first of these is well known. The second could be confirmed by estimating the population is the area covered by each of the 14 step 5 leagues. Working on a total population of 53 million, each Step 5 league should cover an area of between 3.5 and 4 million.

A quick check suggests that the NW Counties area includes
Greater Manchester (2,782,100)
Merseyside (1,406,400)
Lancashire (1,485,000)
Cheshire (1,048,100)
and most of Staffordshire (1,120,300)
- it also includes some or most of Cumbria, Shropshire and a bit of Derbyshire
In other words, its population footprint (7,841,900) is about right for 2/14 of the population


Northern League
Northumberland (316,000)
Tyne and Wear (1,128,800)
County Durham (859,600)
about half of North Yorkshire (say, 550,000)
and parts of Cumbria (say, 100,000)
So (2,954,400) less than its share!


Northern Counties (East)
The rest of North Yorkshire (say, 550,000)
West Yorkshire (2,229,700)
East Yorkshire (597,900)
South Yorkshire (1,385,000)
Nottinghamshire (1,136,000)
most of Derbyshire (1,042,000)
parts of Leicestershire and at least half of Lincolnshire (1,073,000 - using Lincs as the figure)
So a little over 8 million - far too large!
------------------------
By comparison, I think the Southern Combination and Southern Counties (East), using current titles account for only around 2,000,000 people each


So, if from next season, we have a 1-2-4-7-14 pyramid with one promotion from each step 5 league, a club in Sussex has a much better chance of progress than one in South Yorkshire.
If we then move to 1-2-4-8-14, then I believe the FA should be looking at two promotion places for each of the NWC and NCE. A solution that the leagues may find preferable to splitting back to their old constitutional parts

All populations were taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/..._counties_of_England
This was meant to show the broad strokes, so please do not argue the individual numbers is I am out by a little



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(This post was edited by leohoenig on Dec 7, 2017, 3:27 PM)


windydcfc
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Post #1281 of 1297 (1947 views)
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Re: [Richard Rundle] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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The Midland clubs are there - there are 22 of them already, but they're split between two divisions in the 7 division Step 4 projections. The midlands will get a division to itself with a few teams left over, if the eighth Step 4 division is created by adding 20 clubs from the underrepresented northern half.


And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.



I posed that question to Nick Robinson at the FA and it's the FA's long term wish to create an 8th step 4 division. So why do you think it's got zero chance of happening? I'm sure DrBlues has mentioned it a few times as well and isn't he involved in this restructuring?


leohoenig
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Dec 7, 2017, 3:53 PM

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Post #1282 of 1297 (1913 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

windydcfc - you can easily review the posts on this thread if you need reminding of what an individual has said.
It appears drblues does not post much (only one is the last six weeks) and he has not been giving away much

That either means he is not party to the information, or he cannot divulge it because of his position.
Either way, I hope you are not bombarding him with requests for information.

You mention your e-mails to the officials, but give little detail of their replies.
If they FA intend to correct the imbalance when the eighth step 4 league is introduced, then surely they would have also tried to do something to start the process now.
I have not seen anything, except the presumption that the 8th division will happen, (I would guess 2020-21 at the earliest).

Have you been given any indication from those involved that they accept the existence of imbalance and they desire it to be corrected?



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paulh66
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Post #1283 of 1297 (1907 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The "zero chance" is not of an eighth division happening, it's of it being created by mass promotion of entirely northern clubs. Think we're all agreed that that won't happen though it's unclear at the moment if views differ about why it won't happen.


SWP-Phil
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Re: [paulh66] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

But population cannot be the only regard Leo

The SWP area only has 1.7 million people and the 2 Counties it covers are 11th and 40th on the lists of most populated counties.

But if you look at "land mass" instead - 11th becomes 4th biggest County and 40th in terms of population jumps to 12th biggest in terms or physical area !



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(This post was edited by SWP-Phil on Dec 7, 2017, 4:10 PM)


Richard Rundle
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Dec 7, 2017, 4:19 PM

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The Midland clubs are there - there are 22 of them already, but they're split between two divisions in the 7 division Step 4 projections. The midlands will get a division to itself with a few teams left over, if the eighth Step 4 division is created by adding 20 clubs from the underrepresented northern half.


And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.


I posed that question to Nick Robinson at the FA and it's the FA's long term wish to create an 8th step 4 division. So why do you think it's got zero chance of happening? I'm sure DrBlues has mentioned it a few times as well and isn't he involved in this restructuring?


It's not the extra Step 4 division, it's the position that it would be "created by adding 20 clubs from the underrepresented northern half."

You do seem to be obsessed with DrBlues these days, his/her screen name appears in almost every post. Is that your alter ego?


leohoenig
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Dec 7, 2017, 4:22 PM

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Post #1286 of 1297 (1859 views)
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Looking further at representation of the North West - an area covering about one seventh of the country's population

Hence you would expect around 3 Premier League clubs (it has six), and around 10 in the Football League (14, I think)
Also 3-4 at National League level (again 6)
The area has six at step 2, 11 at step 3 and and 14 at step 4

- so in fact the only area where it is under represented is Step 4

And if my count is correct, 57 of the top 368 clubs in the country means there is not a problem is the area's representation, only in the ability for it to promote clubs up the leagues.

The North East, by comparison should have around 5 out of the 92 - and I can remember when this was the case, but with Darlington and Hartlepool dropping down, it has only three. However, it only has 7 of the next four steps, (and I'm including Scarborough) - so just 10 of 368



Fat AND Pompous.
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leohoenig
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Dec 7, 2017, 4:52 PM

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But population cannot be the only regard Leo

The SWP area only has 1.7 million people and the 2 Counties it covers are 11th and 40th on the lists of most populated counties.

But if you look at "land mass" instead - 11th becomes 4th biggest County and 40th in terms of population jumps to 12th biggest in terms or physical area !


You are quite correct, Phil - and in terms of travelling time to the rest of the country, your clubs have more problem than others, especially those in Cornwall.

I think you have six out of 368, which compares favourably with the Northern League, but not with the overall population of the country.

The question is, how should we be dealing with your area? It has to be considered unique because it lacks the communication to other areas, where the Northern League is now much stronger.

I suspect that because of the distances, you have more local players with many clubs, and much less of a movable player market. Players do not transfer between, (for example) Ivybridge and Penzance on a reguar basis.

If I was making a true comparison, I would want to know how the average playing budget in your league (at least the top division) compares to other step 5 and 6 leagues, and I would also wonder what percentage of the players in the two counties higher division clubs actually live in Devon or Cornwall. After all, I have seen ex Cheltenham player Barry Hayles playing for Truro (as it happens, at Windsor) and he now plays for Windsor.

Did he ever train with the Truro team, did the Truro team at the time train in Truro, or even within the confines of the two counties?



Fat AND Pompous.
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Ashton49Pieman
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Dec 7, 2017, 4:57 PM

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The Midland area appears to stretch from Shropshire to Worcestershire in the West via Birmingham across to Humberside and Lincolnshre in the East down to Northamptonshire / Leicestershire in the South judging by the clubs from that catchment who appear in the Northern Premier League

There appear to be sufficient aspiring clubs from both North and Midlands to set up a new autonomous Midland Premier and if clubs from that area wish to take decisions/ actions for themselves that seems good sense.

It is a similar line of thought as to owning their house as opposed to renting where they do not control


PaulC
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Dec 7, 2017, 5:01 PM

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So why do you think it probably won't happen?


Precedent - the FA had the chance to redress some of the imbalance when the 7th Step 4 division was created. It has done nothing to tackle it.

Using wazzafan's projections, next season there will be 46 Step 4 teams covering the East and West Midlands northwards (population 25.3 million) and 94 south of the midlands (population 27.7 million).


windydcfc
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Dec 7, 2017, 5:42 PM

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The Midland clubs are there - there are 22 of them already, but they're split between two divisions in the 7 division Step 4 projections. The midlands will get a division to itself with a few teams left over, if the eighth Step 4 division is created by adding 20 clubs from the underrepresented northern half.


And the chances of that happening - as near to zero as makes no difference.


I posed that question to Nick Robinson at the FA and it's the FA's long term wish to create an 8th step 4 division. So why do you think it's got zero chance of happening? I'm sure DrBlues has mentioned it a few times as well and isn't he involved in this restructuring?


It's not the extra Step 4 division, it's the position that it would be "created by adding 20 clubs from the underrepresented northern half."

You do seem to be obsessed with DrBlues these days, his/her screen name appears in almost every post. Is that your alter ego?



I'm sure there are people on this forum who have already guessed who DrBlues is! Didn't Ladderman say he thought he knew who he was and aren't they from the same part of the country? Or is Ladderman my third alter ego?
As for how the 8th step 4 league is created and when is anyone's guess. But to rule out anything would be foolish, wouldn't you agree?


windydcfc
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Dec 7, 2017, 6:36 PM

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Re: [leohoenig] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Have you been given any indication from those involved that they accept the existence of imbalance and they desire it to be corrected?



That is the one point that I've never had a straight answer to.


lovin spoonful
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Dec 7, 2017, 8:07 PM

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Mister TwoU
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Post #1293 of 1297 (1183 views)
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Have you been given any indication from those involved that they accept the existence of imbalance and they desire it to be corrected?



That is the one point that I've never had a straight answer to.



That is not what meritocracy is about. If it were, The-92 (imbalanced in favour of the 'North of Severn-Wash line by 51/41) would lose 5 North clubs to 5 South clubs just to toe the line.



Professional cretin.


PaulC
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Dec 8, 2017, 3:22 PM

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Have you been given any indication from those involved that they accept the existence of imbalance and they desire it to be corrected?



That is the one point that I've never had a straight answer to.



That is not what meritocracy is about. If it were, The-92 (imbalanced in favour of the 'North of Severn-Wash line by 51/41) would lose 5 North clubs to 5 South clubs just to toe the line.


Absolutely not.

Once out of the unregionalised pyramid there is nothing to prevent the cream rising to the top,

That is meritocracy.

In the regionalised pyramid the dice are loaded in favour of the southern half of the country. There are more southern teams at Steps 3/4/5/6 because the FA has decreed that there should be.

Thst is not meritocracy.


borninchesham
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Dec 9, 2017, 10:12 AM

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Re: [PaulC] FA's Proposed Structure of the NLS 2017/18 and 2018/19 [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

In the season before the FL 3rd Division South was created, there were only 6 Southern teams out of the 44.

To have reached the current figure would sugest that the cream has risen from the south & that the FL was not based on meritocracy.

Perhasps this imbalance is part of the reason for the imbalance outside the FL?


PaulC
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Dec 9, 2017, 12:17 PM

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In the season before the FL 3rd Division South was created, there were only 6 Southern teams out of the 44.

To have reached the current figure would sugest that the cream has risen from the south & that the FL was not based on meritocracy.

Perhasps this imbalance is part of the reason for the imbalance outside the FL?


I don't think anyone has argued that the FL contained the best 44 clubs in England in 1920. The top two divisions were formed from the professional clubs in the northern half of the country - the southern half being almost entirely populated by amateur clubs.

It's interesting to look at the changes over the years though to the representation of the north and south in the top divisions, I think there must be a PhD in this for someone willing to examibe the complex reasons for the changes

In 1921-22 when D3N was added the distribution of teams was

North figures first

1 18-4
2 17-5
3N 20-0
3S 1-21
Total 56-30

1950-51 saw the FL expanded to 92 clubs. The distribution was

1 16-6
2 15-7
3N 24-0
3S 4-20
Total 59-33


1986-87 was the first season of automatic promotion to the Fl.

1 10-12
2 15-7
3 16-8
4 14-10
Total 55-37
(Adding Level 5 12-10 (67-47))


This season
1 10-10
2 15-9
3 14-10
4 11-13
Total 50-42
(Adding Level 5 11-13 (61-55))


ladderman
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Dec 9, 2017, 1:22 PM

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Bishop's Stortford in the Midlands?

Ladderman will remember the time Bishop's Stortford were in Conference North, so at least he will be happier to see them as being in the Midlands now
Wink

Not really.
I'm still trying to figure out why we're not in the isthmian

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