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Nuclear War?

 

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007Dale
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Aug 9, 2017, 8:28 AM

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Nuclear War? Can't Post or Reply Privately

Typical blunderbust comments from Trump regarding everyone's favourite despot. I think he threatened nuclear war, to which end the ever-reasonable North Korean leader has threatened to destroy Guam.

Could we have a perfect storm of two world leaders that will actually use nukes for the first time since 1945?


windydcfc
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Post #2 of 62 (4402 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Typical blunderbust comments from Trump regarding everyone's favourite despot. I think he threatened nuclear war, to which end the ever-reasonable North Korean leader has threatened to destroy Guam.

Could we have a perfect storm of two world leaders that will actually use nukes for the first time since 1945?
I think China will sort this out, it may end up occupying N Korea & toppling the current regime.



justAndy
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Post #3 of 62 (4387 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I have started taking my doors off and leaning them against walls ( I remember the infomercials), stocking up on tin food as well, of course


Chris1963
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Re: [justAndy] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Firstly, I don't think it will go to nuclear weapons but a conventional war is now looking more likely than it did before. I don't envy Trump. Does he launch a pre-emptive strike against the DPRK to take out their missile sites? (From what I've read, I understand Barack Obama considered doing this but was persuaded against it by his generals due to the likely casualties.) Or does he wait for North Korea to attack someone? The best thing, in my view, is the latter course. There is no obvious reason why the DPRK should attack anyone, unless they want to invade South Korea to seize its wealth, as Saddam Hussain did with Kuwait in 1990. Doing so would be very risky for the North Korean regime. And what is the logic behind threatening to attack Guam? If you are going to bomb someone, you keep it a secret!

As someone else on this thread suggested, the ideal solution would be for China to invade and put their own man in the Pyonyang hot seat. But that also carries its own risks, not least because Russia also shares a border with North Korea. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.


(This post was edited by Chris1963 on Aug 9, 2017, 4:22 PM)


paulh66
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Post #5 of 62 (4251 views)
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Re: [Chris1963] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Surely the ideal solution is one where the North Korean leaders are neutralised, the regime collapses, and the country reunifies but does so in a way that results in a security situation which is acceptable to the three key powers, China, Russia and USA? The latter being arguably the most difficult of these three very difficult tasks.


derekn
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Post #6 of 62 (4223 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

By 'neutralised', I presume you mean 'murdered'. Why stop with KJI? Trump next?


paulh66
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Post #7 of 62 (4222 views)
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Re: [derekn] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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By 'neutralised', I presume you mean 'murdered'. Why stop with KJI? Trump next?


No. If I meant murdered I'd have said it. Neutralised as in exactly that I.e. made irrelevant. The Korean people can then decide their fate.


windydcfc
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Post #8 of 62 (4202 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Surely the ideal solution is one where the North Korean leaders are neutralised, the regime collapses, and the country reunifies but does so in a way that results in a security situation which is acceptable to the three key powers, China, Russia and USA? The latter being arguably the most difficult of these three very difficult tasks.



North Korea is under the Chinese sphere of influence. It was the Chinese that went over the Yalu river & rescued the North Korean's in the 1950's. They would never accept a western backed united Korea on there border.


paulh66
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Re: [windydcfc] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

That's why I didn't load it with the words 'western backed' as you have. It shouldn't be beyond the wit and will of man that a unified Korea can one day exist happily alongside its neighbours and other stakeholder nations. Just as a unified Vietnam and unified Germany have done.


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Aug 9, 2017, 7:28 PM)


garethwrexy
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Post #10 of 62 (4176 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Build a bunker to avoid fallout Smile



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DonQuixote
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Post #11 of 62 (4172 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Kim Wrong-un is like a troubled kid with a new toy,
testing to see how far he can bend it before it snaps.

He knows that unless the Trumpster flips out, then
there is no way that the USA will send nukes into Pyongyang.

It is only 150ish miles from Seoul and despite not being a
rocket/nuclear scientist, I'd bet my bottom dollar that
any atomic explosion in and around the Northern capital,
would see the fall out have a far
reaching effect on its [the USA] allies in the South.

Hopefully the kid will desist from his Khrushchevesque
tub thumping and go back to watching his missus in her porn film...




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windydcfc
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Post #12 of 62 (4158 views)
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Re: [DonQuixote] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

If the Yanks were ever going to do anything. I doubt nuclear weapons would be used. A couple of hundred cruise missiles aimed at all the military installations would suffice. But the Chinese would have to give them the nod.


jon b
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Post #13 of 62 (4101 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
By 'neutralised', I presume you mean 'murdered'. Why stop with KJI? Trump next?


No. If I meant murdered I'd have said it. Neutralised as in exactly that I.e. made irrelevant. The Korean people can then decide their fate.


I've no issue with them being neutralised, I just don't see how it can be done. As I understand it, the North Korean communist party machine and armed forces are loyal to the leadership and determined to retain power.

As in China.

I can't see any circumstances where the Chinese would allow the party machine in a neighbouring communist state to be overthrown. They'd see it as setting an example that they wouldn't want to be set. Shades of Tiananmen Square.


paulh66
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Post #14 of 62 (4096 views)
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Re: [jon b] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

There are so many imponderables and moving parts in all this that making a prediction is impossible but, if and when China considers this particular North Korean leadership to be a liability to its national interests, anything is possible. The Chinese vote in the UN sends a message to Pyongyang.


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Aug 9, 2017, 10:42 PM)


Sale Holmfield
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Post #15 of 62 (4086 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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There are so many imponderables and moving parts in all this that making a prediction is impossible but, if and when China considers this particular North Korean leadership to be a liability to its national interests, anything is possible. The Chinese vote in the UN sends a message to Pyongyang.

I think I agree with you in that I expect (and hope) the Chinese leadership ally with or encorage another member of the North Korean inner circle, who is more reliable, or just saner, while the present leadership is neutralised, as you put it earlier.


Wheelbarrow
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Post #16 of 62 (4079 views)
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Re: [Sale Holmfield] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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I expect (and hope) the Chinese leadership ally with or encorage another member of the North Korean inner circle, who is more reliable, or just saner, while the present leadership is neutralised, as you put it earlier.


Something similar did cross my mind when that strange story about a plot to poison Kim Jong Un did the rounds a few weeks back. Especially the fact that it was supposed to be a slow-acting poison, so he would die some time after the contact with the assassin.

I wondered if this was an inner cabal of discontented North Koreans beginning to see Kim as more of a liability and coming up with a way to neutralise him, to use the phrase du jour, in the future and then be able to say "see, told you it was all a plot by those capitalist running dogs" and establish themselves in charge. A plot like that might well need the assistance of the Chinese to circumvent the internal supervision of everyone in N Korea.

But it's one of those places where nothing would surprise me and the truth will probably end up stranger than fiction.


paulh66
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Post #17 of 62 (4074 views)
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paulh66
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Post #18 of 62 (4022 views)
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Re: [Wheelbarrow] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Blimey - went in to edit my last post and ended up neutralising it!

Anyway, I'm not advocating murder! Just suggesting that the ideal would be a unified Korea, and one which could happily co-exist with its neighbours and the west. Kim Jong Un and the current NK leadership would clearly have no role in accomplishing that, ergo neutralised. That's all.


(This post was edited by paulh66 on Aug 10, 2017, 12:12 AM)


Mr. T
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Post #19 of 62 (4004 views)
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Re: [paulh66] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I wonder how many of North Korea's 25 million will require deprogramming after unification.


windydcfc
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Post #20 of 62 (3960 views)
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Re: [Sale Holmfield] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
There are so many imponderables and moving parts in all this that making a prediction is impossible but, if and when China considers this particular North Korean leadership to be a liability to its national interests, anything is possible. The Chinese vote in the UN sends a message to Pyongyang.

I think I agree with you in that I expect (and hope) the Chinese leadership ally with or encorage another member of the North Korean inner circle, who is more reliable, or just saner, while the present leadership is neutralised, as you put it earlier.



Hasn't the current North Korean leader neutralised all other senior members of the communist party(including close relatives)?


Tykeoldboy
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Post #21 of 62 (3845 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

A united Korea might not be what China would want politically but we live in a global trading world and both countries would have far too much to lose, financially, from a war between China and a united Korea. A united Korea would therefore be the best solution for that part of the world. China would also benefit from the inclusion of North Korea into the South since there would be major infrastructure projects which no doubt China would provide much of the money and materials.

China can't afford to lose it's dominance of the global manufacturing market should the west stop buying it's products as India and Bangladesh would take over as the world providers of cheap goods.


UKPunk
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Post #22 of 62 (3610 views)
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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Tykeoldboy's post gets closer to what I believe is the central point. The world is no longer run by governments but by powerful individuals within global corporations. And the one thing these people all have in common is is their insatiable appetite for making money and protecting the processes by which that happens. Therefore a way will be either found or imposed to make sure the gravy train keeps right on schedule.



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jon b
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Re: [UKPunk] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Probably nearer the mark to say that the world isn't run just by governments. Maybe it never was, remember the East India Company controlling India until the Indian Mutiny/Indian Rebellion?

Capitalism and trade aren't North Korea's obsession though and I'm not at all sure that they're the crucial factors for China either. Pun alert. Power and the Party still trump all for them.


jrev61
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Post #24 of 62 (3444 views)
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Re: [UKPunk] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Tykeoldboy's post gets closer to what I believe is the central point. The world is no longer run by governments but by powerful individuals within global corporations. And the one thing these people all have in common is is their insatiable appetite for making money and protecting the processes by which that happens. Therefore a way will be either found or imposed to make sure the gravy train keeps right on schedule.



That's a comforting thought, that there won't be a nuclear war as it would be bad for business! Capitalism has it's good points.



jrev61


007Dale
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Re: [jrev61] Nuclear War? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

All it takes is for one of these test-fire missiles to malfunction and hit Japan. Then we might see some fireworks.

Let's hope it's not carrying a nuclear warhead when it does misfire.

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