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Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south

 

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Dazzla84
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Apr 24, 2017, 2:13 PM

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Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south Can't Post or Reply Privately

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...ay-be-permanent.html

http://www.skysports.com/...n-the-premier-league

Basically after Middlesbrough's 2-1 defeat to Arsenal, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher repeated what Neville wrote in that Telegraph article over a year previously, that there is a powershift from the North to the South and that they claim the North East, Cumbria and Yorkshire are at risk of being "cut adrift"

Its easy to see why they think that, look at the Premier League, 2 north east clubs and one Yorkshre club are likely to go down with another southern club (Brighton) replacing them. Sure Newcastle could go up tonight by winning against Preston but that looks to be a massive exception to the rule. And at the bottom of League 2, Hartlepool United could go down so that there is a distinct possibility that for the entire geographical landscape of Northumberland, T&W, County Durham, Cumbria, Cleveland and North Yorkshire, there could be a grand total of just 4 clubs representing that entire area (Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Sunderland & Carlisle), it was only around 18 years ago when the number was double that (add to that Hartlepool, Darlington, York and the previous incarnation of Scarborough). Infact in the top 8 tiers of English Football, there are a grand total of just 17 clubs (18 when South Shields come up next season) representing those 6 counties

Those current ones being

NORTHUMBERLAND: Blyth Spartans
TYNE & WEAR: Newcastle United, Sunderland, Gateshead, South Shields*
COUNTY DURHAM: Hartlepool United, Darlington 1883, Spennymoor Town
CUMBRIA: Carlisle United, Barrow, Workington, Kendal Town
CLEVELAND: Middlesbrough
NORTH YORKSHIRE: York City, Harrogate Town, Whitby Town, Scarborough Athletic, Tadcaster Albion

* coming up to level 8 next season

Infact if Hartlepool do get relegated, it will be the first time that County Durham will not havbe a representative in the Football League in 127 years

What im wondering though is that is Geography the real reason for this powershift, because if Neville was right that Sunderland were looking to set up a new training base nearer London (which I think is BS by the way), then why not just do a Milton Keynes and move the whole club there?



CLARET AND BLUE PIXELS: http://claretandbluepixels.wordpress.com

My blog for Talk on Non-League Football, South Shields FC and Video Games, yep a weird combination

(This post was edited by Dazzla84 on Apr 24, 2017, 2:29 PM)


paulh66
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Apr 24, 2017, 2:27 PM

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Post #2 of 28 (3120 views)
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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I saw that on Sky and wondered what on earth Neville was on about. Sure, the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal will always appeal more to the big foreign names because of their location but that's only a small part of the picture that Neville was trying to put forward as an argument in itself.

Newcastle coming up is hardly a massive exception. There'll also likely be at least two northern clubs in the championship playoff, and remember all three that were promoted into the Premier League last season were from the north too.

The real problem is that many traditional big northern clubs like Newcastle, Sunderland, Leeds and so on have been badly run, and that's why they've slipped down the pecking order. Same at the lower levels with the teams you mention - Darlo, York etc.


Tykeoldboy
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Apr 24, 2017, 2:40 PM

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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Football goes through phases. Merseyside was the power base in the 70's and 80's, Manchester in the 90's and 2000's now it is London, at least in the PL. Saying that out of the top 6 clubs in the PL as of today, 2 from London and 4 from from the North-West.

The Yorkshire and the North-East hasn't been top of the football pile for a long long time, although they did supply 5 teams in the old first division in 1974-75 with 2 more doing well in Division 2 that season.

In the Championship this season 4 of th top 7 are from Yorkshire or the North-East with only Rotherham doing badly. Overall teams from Yorkshire and the North-East have had a good season. As with all regions, some teams have done well and some have struggled.

London teams are doing well at the moment, foreign investors are drawn to London rather than to Tyne & Wear so that is where the money will go.

I'm sure people in Manchester and Liverpool hate to see this power shift but that is how it goes, and like a carousel, it will go full circle eventually.


Dazzla84
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Apr 24, 2017, 2:48 PM

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Re: [paulh66] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
I saw that on Sky and wondered what on earth Neville was on about. Sure, the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal will always appeal more to the big foreign names because of their location but that's only a small part of the picture that Neville was trying to put forward as an argument in itself.

Newcastle coming up is hardly a massive exception. There'll also likely be at least two northern clubs in the championship playoff, and remember all three that were promoted into the Premier League last season were from the north too.

The real problem is that many traditional big northern clubs like Newcastle, Sunderland, Leeds and so on have been badly run, and that's why they've slipped down the pecking order. Same at the lower levels with the teams you mention - Darlo, York etc.


Thats true, in Hartlepool's case, a string of bad managerial appointments since being relegated back to League 2 is now coming back to bite them, same goes for York but they at least have made moves to remedy that in recent months with the re-appointment of Gary Mills meaning they have a chance next week to complete a "great escape."

On the positive side, Darlington at least are making a good comeback after liquidation (despite the recent failed ground grading), Blyth Spartans are looking good to be competitive in the Vanarama North next season if they can keep the core of their squad together, Spennymoor are also good bets to join them and I expect the likes of Scarborough and South Shields to make moves up the pyramid (Scarborough especially seeing as theyre moving back to their home town next season) to give the talent pool up here more of an outlet to ply their trade at a decent level without having to go south or to Vase level for opportunities (which in a way is why you see clubs from this region do so well in the Vase).

There is positive investment in clubs in the local area but because you dont see it at the traditional big bunch, it goes largely unnoticed.



CLARET AND BLUE PIXELS: http://claretandbluepixels.wordpress.com

My blog for Talk on Non-League Football, South Shields FC and Video Games, yep a weird combination

(This post was edited by Dazzla84 on Apr 24, 2017, 2:50 PM)


PaulC
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Apr 24, 2017, 2:54 PM

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Post #5 of 28 (3100 views)
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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...ay-be-permanent.html

http://www.skysports.com/...n-the-premier-league

Basically after Middlesbrough's 2-1 defeat to Arsenal, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher repeated what Neville wrote in that Telegraph article over a year previously, that there is a powershift from the North to the South and that they claim the North East, Cumbria and Yorkshire are at risk of being "cut adrift"

Its easy to see why they think that, look at the Premier League, 2 north east clubs and one Yorkshre club are likely to go down with another southern club (Brighton) replacing them. Sure Newcastle could go up tonight by winning against Preston but that looks to be a massive exception to the rule. And at the bottom of League 2, Hartlepool United could go down so that there is a distinct possibility that for the entire geographical landscape of Northumberland, T&W, County Durham, Cumbria and North Yorkshire, there could be a grand total of just 4 clubs representing that entire area (Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Sunderland & Carlisle), it was only around 18 years ago when the number was double that (add to that Hartlepool, Darlington, York and the previous incarnation of Scarborough).

What im wondering though is that is Geography the real reason for this powershift, because if Neville was right that Sunderland were looking to set up a new training base nearer London (which I think is BS by the way), then why not just do a Milton Keynes and move the whole club there?


There can't be much doubt about such a powershift. The growth of the London/SE economy and the decline in the economies of many areas formerly dependent on the traditional industries has taken its toll. There's been a population shift too.

Comparing 1958-9 (the first season of four national divisions with 2016-17, and the Severn-Wash county boundary line as the North/South divider, I find the make up of each level was:



1958-9...N ...S
Level 1 16 .. 6
Level 2 13 .. 9* (*including 2 S Wales)
Level 3 13^. 11* (* including 1 S Wales, ^1 N Wales)
Level 4 17 .. 7
TOTAL...59 ..33

2016-7...N ..S
Level 1 11 . 9* (*including 1 S Wales)
Level 2 14 .10* (*including 1 S Wales)
Level 3 14 .10
Level 4 11 .13* (*including 1 S Wales)
TOTAL ..50 .42



Dazzla84
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Apr 24, 2017, 3:01 PM

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Post #6 of 28 (3096 views)
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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Football goes through phases. Merseyside was the power base in the 70's and 80's, Manchester in the 90's and 2000's now it is London, at least in the PL. Saying that out of the top 6 clubs in the PL as of today, 2 from London and 4 from from the North-West.

The Yorkshire and the North-East hasn't been top of the football pile for a long long time, although they did supply 5 teams in the old first division in 1974-75 with 2 more doing well in Division 2 that season.

In the Championship this season 4 of th top 7 are from Yorkshire or the North-East with only Rotherham doing badly. Overall teams from Yorkshire and the North-East have had a good season. As with all regions, some teams have done well and some have struggled.

London teams are doing well at the moment, foreign investors are drawn to London rather than to Tyne & Wear so that is where the money will go.

I'm sure people in Manchester and Liverpool hate to see this power shift but that is how it goes, and like a carousel, it will go full circle eventually.


Thats true, yes Newcastle (my team) get regular home crowds in excess of 50k and have tremendous marketing potential, but to a foreign investor looking to buy a club, who would want to pay Mike Ashley £300million (his asking price) for what is a yo-yo club? its a ridiculous amount to ask to pay for a club that is not essentially guaranteed sustainability in the league you are trying to buy into. If a rich foreign investor wants to buy a lower club, he/she would do better to save £200mllion and buy someone else (like the Thai's did with Leicester City).

As for these phases, the only time the North East was considered the main powerhouse was during the Edwardian era (1900's) that was when the best players were generally Scottish and coming to the likes of Newcastle and Sunderland was beneficial for them logisicially, a good chunk of Newcastle's 3-time title winning teams in 1905, 1907 and 1909 were from north of the border



CLARET AND BLUE PIXELS: http://claretandbluepixels.wordpress.com

My blog for Talk on Non-League Football, South Shields FC and Video Games, yep a weird combination


Dazzla84
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Apr 24, 2017, 3:16 PM

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Post #7 of 28 (3086 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...ay-be-permanent.html

http://www.skysports.com/...n-the-premier-league

Basically after Middlesbrough's 2-1 defeat to Arsenal, Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher repeated what Neville wrote in that Telegraph article over a year previously, that there is a powershift from the North to the South and that they claim the North East, Cumbria and Yorkshire are at risk of being "cut adrift"

Its easy to see why they think that, look at the Premier League, 2 north east clubs and one Yorkshre club are likely to go down with another southern club (Brighton) replacing them. Sure Newcastle could go up tonight by winning against Preston but that looks to be a massive exception to the rule. And at the bottom of League 2, Hartlepool United could go down so that there is a distinct possibility that for the entire geographical landscape of Northumberland, T&W, County Durham, Cumbria and North Yorkshire, there could be a grand total of just 4 clubs representing that entire area (Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Sunderland & Carlisle), it was only around 18 years ago when the number was double that (add to that Hartlepool, Darlington, York and the previous incarnation of Scarborough).

What im wondering though is that is Geography the real reason for this powershift, because if Neville was right that Sunderland were looking to set up a new training base nearer London (which I think is BS by the way), then why not just do a Milton Keynes and move the whole club there?


There can't be much doubt about such a powershift. The growth of the London/SE economy and the decline in the economies of many areas formerly dependent on the traditional industries has taken its toll. There's been a population shift too.

Comparing 1958-9 (the first season of four national divisions with 2016-17, and the Severn-Wash county boundary line as the North/South divider, I find the make up of each level was:



1958-9...N ...S
Level 1 16 .. 6
Level 2 13 .. 9* (*including 2 S Wales)
Level 3 13^. 11* (* including 1 S Wales, ^1 N Wales)
Level 4 17 .. 7
TOTAL...59 ..33

2016-7...N ..S
Level 1 11 . 9* (*including 1 S Wales)
Level 2 14 .10* (*including 1 S Wales)
Level 3 14 .10
Level 4 11 .13* (*including 1 S Wales)
TOTAL ..50 .42


Like I said, its most noticeable in the 6 northernmost counties I listed

1959-60: 10 Clubs (Newcastle, Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Darlington, York, Carlisle, Workington, Barrow, Gateshead)
1960-61: 9 Clubs (Gateshead voted out in favour of Peterborough United)
1972-73: 8 Clubs (Barrow voted out in favour of Hereford United)
1977-78: 7 Clubs (Workington voted out in favour of Wigan Athletic)
1987-88: 8 Clubs (Scarborough the first automatically promoted team from the Conference)
1989-90: 7 Clubs (Darlington relegated from Division 4)
1990-91: 8 Clubs (Darligton promoted from Conference)
1999-2000: 7 Clubs (Scarborough relegated from Division 3)
2004-05: 5 Clubs (York and Carlisle relegated from League 2)
2005-06: 6 Clubs (Carlisle promoted from Conference)
2010-11: 5 Clubs (Darlington relegated fro League 2)
2012-13: 6 Clubs (York promoted from Conference)
2016-17: 5 Clubs (York relegated from League 2)
*2017-18: 4 Clubs (Possibility of Hartlepool being relegated from League 2)

* Possibility


acmold
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Apr 24, 2017, 4:06 PM

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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

The Premier League top seven are from London and the North West and they are miles in front of the rest. There are two more London clubs one more from the North West and Watford inside the M25. That's 11 out of 20 in two smallish areas. Surely the Midlands has fallen as much as the North East, Villa, Wolves, Forest and Derby all ex champions plus Coventry and Blues all outside the top flight.

Much of it is to do with investment and where people live (if in the UK) looks like London and Cheshire may get the vote, not the North East or the Black Country.


Richard Rundle
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Apr 24, 2017, 4:26 PM

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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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.. but to a foreign investor looking to buy a club, who would want to pay Mike Ashley £300million (his asking price) for what is a yo-yo club? its a ridiculous amount to ask to pay for a club that is not essentially guaranteed sustainability in the league you are trying to buy into...


Manchester City weren't much more than a yo-yo club when Sheikh Mansour bought them in 2008, for a not dis-similar sum.


Tykeoldboy
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Apr 24, 2017, 4:57 PM

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Post #10 of 28 (3027 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To
Football goes through phases. Merseyside was the power base in the 70's and 80's, Manchester in the 90's and 2000's now it is London, at least in the PL. Saying that out of the top 6 clubs in the PL as of today, 2 from London and 4 from from the North-West.

The Yorkshire and the North-East hasn't been top of the football pile for a long long time, although they did supply 5 teams in the old first division in 1974-75 with 2 more doing well in Division 2 that season.

In the Championship this season 4 of th top 7 are from Yorkshire or the North-East with only Rotherham doing badly. Overall teams from Yorkshire and the North-East have had a good season. As with all regions, some teams have done well and some have struggled.

London teams are doing well at the moment, foreign investors are drawn to London rather than to Tyne & Wear so that is where the money will go.

I'm sure people in Manchester and Liverpool hate to see this power shift but that is how it goes, and like a carousel, it will go full circle eventually.


Thats true, yes Newcastle (my team) get regular home crowds in excess of 50k and have tremendous marketing potential, but to a foreign investor looking to buy a club, who would want to pay Mike Ashley £300million (his asking price) for what is a yo-yo club? its a ridiculous amount to ask to pay for a club that is not essentially guaranteed sustainability in the league you are trying to buy into. If a rich foreign investor wants to buy a lower club, he/she would do better to save £200mllion and buy someone else (like the Thai's did with Leicester City).

As for these phases, the only time the North East was considered the main powerhouse was during the Edwardian era (1900's) that was when the best players were generally Scottish and coming to the likes of Newcastle and Sunderland was beneficial for them logisicially, a good chunk of Newcastle's 3-time title winning teams in 1905, 1907 and 1909 were from north of the border


£300 million for a well support club which should generate a nice profit year after year is still a lot of money. As you point out, investors can buy into English football at a lower level and a lot cheaper price. This should make Carlisle a prime target. Although Carlisle is out on a bit of a limb, location wise, they do have a reasonable catchment area. Clubs located in places like the North-East and South-West also have a problem attracting the best players. These young players want to live where there is top class nightlife and restaurants so London and Manchester do appeal whereas they might think twice about a night out in Sunderland, which isn't really that full of the celebrities PL footballers like to mix with.


windydcfc
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Re: [Dazzla84] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

If you go back even further, the amount of Northeastern clubs have reduced drastically over the evolution of the Football league.


acmold
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Apr 24, 2017, 5:46 PM

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Re: [windydcfc] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

Same would apply to south wales and the north west.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Apr 24, 2017, 5:58 PM

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Re: [Tykeoldboy] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

It has been a long time since any team from South and West Yorkshire has been in the Premier League. The final season of the "old" Football League First Division in 1991/92 finished with Leeds United as champions ahead of Manchester United and Sheffield Wednesday. Sheffield United was a member of the initial Premier League as well and smaller clubs such as Barnsley and Bradford City also managed brief spells in the Premier League in the late 90's. However, the early 2000's were very bad for top flight football in Yorkshire with the relegation of Sheffield Wednesday followed by the financial implosion of Leeds United in 2002. Leeds United had been successful in the Champions League for a couple of seasons under David O'Leary and had also reached a UEFA Cup Final but the board had made the mistake of basing budgets on Champions League qualification, and when that failed to happen in 2002, it exposed Leeds United financially and the club has never recovered from that.

It is possible next season that if Newcastle United is promoted, Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Hull City all relegated and Fulham or Reading promoted through the playoffs, that Newcastle United will be more than 100 miles on the road network from any other Premier League club.


Tim
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Apr 24, 2017, 6:07 PM

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In Reply To
The Premier League top seven are from London and the North West and they are miles in front of the rest. There are two more London clubs one more from the North West and Watford inside the M25. That's 11 out of 20 in two smallish areas. Surely the Midlands has fallen as much as the North East, Villa, Wolves, Forest and Derby all ex champions plus Coventry and Blues all outside the top flight.

Much of it is to do with investment and where people live (if in the UK) looks like London and Cheshire may get the vote, not the North East or the Black Country.


I am pretty sure this is the first season ever with only one Birmingham/Black Country club in the top division of English football.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Apr 24, 2017, 6:48 PM

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Re: [Tim] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Until 2002, Aston Villa was the only Birmingham / Black Country team to appear in the Premier League. Aston Villa and Coventry City were the only West Midlands clubs in the Premier League from its inception in 1992 until Coventry City was relegated in 2001, leaving Aston Villa as the only West Midlands club in the Premier League in 2001/02. Both Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion appeared in the Premier League for the first time in 2002/03.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Apr 24, 2017, 7:04 PM

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Re: [acmold] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Over the years, a significant number of Football League clubs in the north and north west either failed re-election or went out of business.

The split of clubs in the old Football League Third Division North and South in the 1950's is interesting; both Notts County and Nottingham Forest played in the Third Division South and both Port Vale (Stoke-on-Trent) and Walsall played in the final season of the Third Division South in 1957/58 before the creation of the Fourth Division.

Now, if you had to split Leagues One and Two into two regionalised leagues of 24 teams each, the North division would have to go as far south as Peterborough and Coventry.


acmold
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Apr 24, 2017, 7:39 PM

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Re: [Robert Kilcoyne] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

Which would still mean it was a tad more north than south but about as near even split as you could get.


acmold
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Apr 24, 2017, 7:41 PM

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Re: [Robert Kilcoyne] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

I was talking pre Premier League


acmold
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Re: [Tim] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

87\8 Blues, Albion, Villa in Division Two, Wolves in Division Three.

Oxford in Division One, funny old game.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Apr 24, 2017, 7:56 PM

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Luton Town were in the First Division as well and won the Football League Cup that year.

To think that less than 25 years later both Oxford United and Luton Town would have fallen from the heights of playing in the First Division and winning the League Cup to playing outside the Football League.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Over the last 50 years, Barrow, Bradford Park Avenue, Chester City, Darlington, Halifax Town, Southport, Stockport County, Workington and Wrexham have all dropped out of the Football League and have not returned.

Since promotion from the Conference to the Football League was introduced in 1987, new teams have included Barnet, Wycombe Wanderers, Stevenage, Cheltenham Town, Yeovil Town and Crawley Town.


Robert Kilcoyne
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Apr 24, 2017, 8:22 PM

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The old Third Division North / South was in many ways very similar to the Conference North / South with some Midlands teams playing in both divisions and being at risk of being transferred laterally. It was also very difficult for teams to progress to the Second Division as only the champions of these 24 team leagues were promoted.

Ideally, a north / south dividing line for both the National League North / South and the Northern Premier League / Southern League, should be much closer to Birmingham.


PaulC
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Apr 25, 2017, 12:14 AM

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In Reply To
Ideally, a north / south dividing line for both the National League North / South and the Northern Premier League / Southern League, should be much closer to Birmingham.

Severn/Wash is as ideal as you will get - in terms of reasonably equal populations and area.


Part-Timer
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Re: [Robert Kilcoyne] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Over the years, a significant number of Football League clubs in the north and north west either failed re-election or went out of business.

The split of clubs in the old Football League Third Division North and South in the 1950's is interesting; both Notts County and Nottingham Forest played in the Third Division South and both Port Vale (Stoke-on-Trent) and Walsall played in the final season of the Third Division South in 1957/58 before the creation of the Fourth Division.

Now, if you had to split Leagues One and Two into two regionalised leagues of 24 teams each, the North division would have to go as far south as Peterborough and Coventry.

Coventry played in Division Three North in 1925/6.


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Post #25 of 28 (2790 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Neville & Carragher on a football powershift from the north east to the south [In reply to] Can't Post or

So North is 50 South 39 and Wales is 3.

Using population the split could be if using 2011 census figures

North 41
South 46
Wales 5

The population of the North East & Cumbria relates to 5 clubs (or just under)

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