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Home: All Other Football Interests: All other football:
Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes?

 



Lars
Reserve Team Star

Apr 23, 2017, 12:08 AM

Posts: 900
Location: Sweden
Team(s): Yeovil, Kettering

Post #1 of 9 (5015 views)
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Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? Can't Post or Reply Privately

There is a significant statistical advantage in being the team to shoot first in a penalty shootout (or if it was the other way around, I don't remember).

Why not do as in tennis tiebreaks.
If team A is playing team B, let's have the following order:
A B B A A B B A A B, and then B A A B B A and so on...
or perhaps:
A B B A B A A B B A, and then A B A B B A and so on...

(By the way, I'm not suggesting this because I'm Swedish, just like the pop group ABBA. Wink)

Wouldn't the above be a significant improvement, compared to the current way of letting one team always shoot first (A B A B A B A B A B...)?


leohoenig
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Apr 23, 2017, 2:48 AM

Posts: 13396
Location: Outer Cheltenhamshire
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Post #2 of 9 (4997 views)
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Re: [Lars] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Do you want to change ends after every six penalties.

I only know of one penalty shoot out that involved a change of ends, Japan v Jordan at the 2004 Asian Cup
Japan protested about the soft ground by the spot, being 2-0 down after two penalties.
They were move to the other end, and both teams scored their third
Jordan then failed to score from four penalties, and Japan went through 4-3 and went on to win the Cup



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The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com



Lars
Reserve Team Star

Apr 23, 2017, 11:14 AM

Posts: 900
Location: Sweden
Team(s): Yeovil, Kettering

Post #3 of 9 (4961 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Do you want to change ends after every six penalties.

I only know of one penalty shoot out that involved a change of ends, Japan v Jordan at the 2004 Asian Cup
Japan protested about the soft ground by the spot, being 2-0 down after two penalties.
They were move to the other end, and both teams scored their third
Jordan then failed to score from four penalties, and Japan went through 4-3 and went on to win the Cup


No, not necessarily change ends. Just alter which team starts first in each "round" of the shootout.

First shoots team A, then shoots team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
Then shoots team A, then team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
Then shoots team A, then team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
and so on...

That would be significantly fairer than the current way where the same team always shoots first.

Here is an example of an article stating that otherwise the team shooting first wins in 60 % of the cases!
http://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-discussions/penalty-kick-shootout-paper-apesteguia-palacios-huerta
(Do we really want a toss of a coin have such importance over the outcome?)


However, there might be a good idea to also change sides. Fact is that it is a significant advantage not having to face one's own fans when shooting. (Or if it was the other way round, but I do think having to look at one's fans is usually adding pressure rather than helping.)

---

For many years, I've also wanted to let the penalty shootout take place before the extra time.
The penalty shootout outcome will only count if the extra time results in a draw. Otherwise the team winning during the extra time wins the match.
Example:
If result after 90 minutes is a draw (like 2-2), then have a shootout.
Then play the extra time. The team that lost the shootout knows it has to win during the extra time in order, because if the match is still a draw after the extra time (like 2-2 or 3-3), they will lose.
Thus, during extra time - at any given moment - one team will need to score to avoid a loss. This would likely result in a more attacking game.


For those interested in stats, here is an article stating the success rate of a penalty shot tends to be lower the more "important" the kick is. For example, taking the first penalty shoot in a shootout seems to be easier than taking a "sudden death" one (like 6th or 7th).
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/research.html


(This post was edited by Lars on Apr 23, 2017, 11:15 AM)


scottywalds
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Apr 23, 2017, 12:26 PM

Posts: 2208
Location: Boston
Team(s): Boston United

Post #4 of 9 (4950 views)
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Re: [Lars] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Or the team that wins the shootout know they only need to not concede, and they win - so play very cautiously.


Lars
Reserve Team Star

Apr 23, 2017, 12:33 PM

Posts: 900
Location: Sweden
Team(s): Yeovil, Kettering

Post #5 of 9 (4946 views)
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Re: [scottywalds] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Or the team that wins the shootout know they only need to not concede, and they win - so play very cautiously.


Yes, that's a possibility.
But at least we will not have to see the common scenario where none of the teams dares to attack forcefully..?
Plus, the match will be decided by actual play, rather than a shootout competition (where a coin toss gives one team a 60 % chance of winning it).


(This post was edited by Lars on Apr 23, 2017, 12:35 PM)


Tykeoldboy
Chelsea Transfer Target


Apr 23, 2017, 5:50 PM

Posts: 3210
Location:
Team(s): Doncaster Rovers, Everton, Mablethorpe

Post #6 of 9 (4883 views)
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Re: [Lars] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Penalties can only be taken by players on the field of play at that time. Taking penalties before extra time would mean a penalty taker not being on the field during extra time or a player unable to take a penalty but coming on as a sub during extra time. I do think the tennis solution to penalties is a good idea though, except without the switching of goals every 6 penalties. Maybe FIFA should trial this somewhere.


blackdouglas
Chelsea Transfer Target


Apr 23, 2017, 7:01 PM

Posts: 3290
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
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Post #7 of 9 (4866 views)
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Re: [Lars] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
Do you want to change ends after every six penalties.

I only know of one penalty shoot out that involved a change of ends, Japan v Jordan at the 2004 Asian Cup
Japan protested about the soft ground by the spot, being 2-0 down after two penalties.
They were move to the other end, and both teams scored their third
Jordan then failed to score from four penalties, and Japan went through 4-3 and went on to win the Cup


No, not necessarily change ends. Just alter which team starts first in each "round" of the shootout.

First shoots team A, then shoots team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
Then shoots team A, then team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
Then shoots team A, then team B.
Then shoots team B, then team A.
and so on...

That would be significantly fairer than the current way where the same team always shoots first.

Here is an example of an article stating that otherwise the team shooting first wins in 60 % of the cases!
http://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-discussions/penalty-kick-shootout-paper-apesteguia-palacios-huerta
(Do we really want a toss of a coin have such importance over the outcome?)


However, there might be a good idea to also change sides. Fact is that it is a significant advantage not having to face one's own fans when shooting. (Or if it was the other way round, but I do think having to look at one's fans is usually adding pressure rather than helping.)

---

For many years, I've also wanted to let the penalty shootout take place before the extra time.
The penalty shootout outcome will only count if the extra time results in a draw. Otherwise the team winning during the extra time wins the match.
Example:
If result after 90 minutes is a draw (like 2-2), then have a shootout.
Then play the extra time. The team that lost the shootout knows it has to win during the extra time in order, because if the match is still a draw after the extra time (like 2-2 or 3-3), they will lose.
Thus, during extra time - at any given moment - one team will need to score to avoid a loss. This would likely result in a more attacking game.



For those interested in stats, here is an article stating the success rate of a penalty shot tends to be lower the more "important" the kick is. For example, taking the first penalty shoot in a shootout seems to be easier than taking a "sudden death" one (like 6th or 7th).
http://www.penaltyshootouts.co.uk/research.html


Not entirely, it just means the team that wins the shoot-out prior to extra time just has to pack the penalty box for half an hour, and play a game of the Dark Arts that would make Voldemort proud.

Though I do like the idea of alternating who takes first in each round of kicks.



Northwood, Threave Rovers, Arsenal, Rangers (the real ones, NOT qpr),Watford, Rochdale, queen of the south and a few others.


bakis
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Apr 25, 2017, 6:36 PM

Posts: 600
Location: Worcestershire
Team(s): Kidderminster Harriers

Post #8 of 9 (4753 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Given that a team is likely to nominate those it considers its best five penalty takers for the first five slots isn't it unsurprising that the success rate tends to diminish thereafter?


Richard Rundle
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May 3, 2017, 3:37 PM

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Post #9 of 9 (4221 views)
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Re: [bakis] Penalty shootout order as in tennis tiebreakes? [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

UEFA are trialling something similar to Lars's original post in the Under 17 tournament that started today

 
 


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