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Fluttering

 



Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 22, 2013, 7:45 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #1 of 16 (2676 views)
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Fluttering Can't Post or Reply Privately

I'm testing-out (read:playing about with) my new wireless computer mouse, replacing the skanky, horrid old one I've been using for several years. The old one was doing my nut, constantly randomly double-clicking, and as I have to use the on-screen-keyboard these days, that just wasn't acceptable. Particularly problematic, if like me, you don't handle spelling very well.
Anyhoo, the new mouse is cordless and is taking some getting used to. In comparison, it's pretty darned frictionless and blatts the cursor around, even if I'm holding it (supposedly) stock-still. I swear that it's picking-up on the beat of my pulse!

Which takes accommodation... hence this thread. But what to write about that'll be of a little interest?

I've noticed a few people here have mentioned bets and betting very occasionally, and I often like a bit of a flutter during the season, generally averaging a tenner profit for my efforts over the course of a year!
I've an online account with Paddy Power (sorry Steve) which is conveniently easily followable and so lay a tenner or two down perhaps half-a-dozen times a month.

So. Let's have a thread dedicated to sharing the fun of our odd excursions via the bookies, a place to compare notes, maybe share tips, discuss odds and tease the bejeezus out of each other when our bets flop spectacularly.

I hope a few of you will be game


Pat.



Professional cretin.


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 22, 2013, 7:57 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #2 of 16 (2671 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Tonight I've bet a tenner with a 10p Lucky 63, the 3.70 balance as an Accumulator on these six fixtures:

Draw @ 23/10 Woking v Newport County
Hastings United @ 11/10 Hastings United v Cray Wanderers
Notts County @ 10/11 Notts County v Oldham
Bournemouth @ 10/11 Hartlepool v Bournemouth
Brentford @ 4/6 Brentford v Leyton Orient
Draw @ 9/4 Blackburn v Brighton

I have no idea what the full set would bring in winnings, but think I might just break even if four out of the six come home, maybe even take a teensy profit?



Professional cretin.


Wheelbarrow
First Team Star

Jan 22, 2013, 8:51 PM

Posts: 2400
Location:
Team(s):

Post #3 of 16 (2654 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
I have no idea what the full set would bring in winnings, but think I might just break even if four out of the six come home, maybe even take a teensy profit?

There's a handy site for working out returns on different types of bets here: http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/


jimmyjazz
Chelsea Transfer Target


Jan 22, 2013, 9:05 PM

Posts: 3397
Location: Milton Keynes
Team(s):

Post #4 of 16 (2649 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I've been punting for years, and I'm rubbish at it. Well not rubbish, but I lose. About 40% accuracy. The best advice is unless you can afford to lose your stake, don't bother.

Otherwise a few things. Conventional betting wisdom says don't do accumulators. I totally disagree with this, I've won 4 times on these with 50p-1 stakes. My thing with this is a 1 line of 4-7 homes, a seperate 50p line on 3-4 draws, and 1 line of aways (this has never won!). 50p on 4 draws will bring in roughly 80. Draws are notoriously hard to call, but local derbies or bad team at home to good team are my filter.

Percentages - averaged over 10 seasons from the main European top flight leagues

Home Win - 46%
Draw - 28%
Away - 26%

If I do do singles, I never ever ever bet odds on. Football is a random sport, heaven knows I've seen enough to know it's ridiculously hard to call. Draws are always 11/5 or 12/5 but this is risky, as you can see from the percentages above over time mathmatically this won't work out. You need a success rate higher than the percentages above to win, and then only if their is value in the price you take.

Value - always bet with value. This is easy to calculate but you need to convert odds to their digital equivalent. Example, something priced at evens means the bookie is offering it as a 50% likelihood. Divide 100 by the digital odd to get the percentage. The bookie adds in an overround, so the three options add up to something like 105%. This is so they make money over the course of several bets. If you think your choice has a better percentage chance than being offered, that is a value bet. But only if you're right!

There's all sorts of statistical formula such as ELO Ratings but personally don't bother with that. Often find value can be found by going against sides that the public will back (Arsenal, Leeds, Liverpool) but that are woefully inconsistent.


Discipline - don't bet blind / just because, sounds daft but you need some sort of reason as to why you think you are right and that the book is priced up wrong.
A good call is to go for a home win when all three options are above evens.

Never touch correct score, first goalscorer, both teams to score etc. The bookies aren't national chains for no reason, these are mug bets where the mathmatics are always on the side of the bookie.

I hope that makes sense, I must admit I'm typing this whilst I'm very, very drunk.


(This post was edited by jimmyjazz on Jan 22, 2013, 9:32 PM)


jimmyjazz
Chelsea Transfer Target


Jan 22, 2013, 9:22 PM

Posts: 3397
Location: Milton Keynes
Team(s):

Post #5 of 16 (2642 views)
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Re: [jimmyjazz] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

A couple of other things.

Prices with online accounts are often better than those available in the shop. A site like Oddschecker allows you to see which company is offering the best prices. And... you can bet on non-league games online. Step 4 even!

But...if you win too much online or the bookies think you're too shrewd, you'll get banned. You won't get banned doing accumulators though. Smile

Arbing / Hedging / dutching will almost certainly get you banned. You can make money this way but it isn't much fun. You might as well work in finance if you're going to do this. Not for me.

Keep a record, so you can see what you're good at and where you need to cut your losses.

A lot of people get joy with under / over 2.5 goals. Again this is too boring for me personally, I like my bets to last the whole 90 minutes.

If you have an online account you can bet in-play. Some of the bookies have live streaming so you can watch the game.

Where I've had most joy on singles - games held on neutral venues. i.e play-off finals, International tournaments. Example Denmark were 5/1 versus Holland in the Euro 2012 opener, the easiest 50 ever made, although it was nervous watching. There were some really silly prices on the outsiders, one thing to always remember...there are only three possible outcomes, so anything above evens (2) or even better 2/1 (3) can be given consideration.

Finally for anyone who's thinking of dabbling- there's no get rich quick scheme. Professional punters claim they've had a good year if they make 10% profit on their total outlay. And that's their full-time job.


(This post was edited by jimmyjazz on Jan 22, 2013, 9:33 PM)


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 22, 2013, 10:51 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #6 of 16 (2611 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Tonight I've bet a tenner with a 10p Lucky 63, the 3.70 balance as an Accumulator on these six fixtures:

Draw @ 23/10 Woking v Newport County
Hastings United @ 11/10 Hastings United v Cray Wanderers
Notts County @ 10/11 Notts County v Oldham
Bournemouth @ 10/11 Hartlepool v Bournemouth
Brentford @ 4/6 Brentford v Leyton Orient
Draw @ 9/4 Blackburn v Brighton

I have no idea what the full set would bring in winnings, but think I might just break even if four out of the six come home, maybe even take a teensy profit?



Ha ha. Bit rubbish in the end, just three of five survivors from the weather, but the Woking game could still be counted-in if it manages to get played within 24-hours. Otherwise it's a refund for that one.

One treble @ {10/11,10/11,9/4}
Three doubles therefrom +
Three singles =3.50!


Ah well, down 2.81 (inc. the -3.70 for the Acca) - but not bad for 2-hrs. nail-biting entertainment.



Professional cretin.


LondonBuck
Chelsea Transfer Target


Jan 23, 2013, 4:18 AM

Posts: 4027
Location: East London
Team(s): AFC Telford United, Witham Town, Folkestone Invicta, Gillingham, Woking

Post #7 of 16 (2586 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Football is so unpredictable I would never even think of betting on it Crazy



637 GROUNDS - AFC Fylde(61/92)
582 WETHERSPOONS - Lytham
2 WETHERSPOONS HOTELS - Ripon


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 23, 2013, 1:31 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #8 of 16 (2542 views)
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Re: [LondonBuck] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

I don't know. I have a go on the Forum prediction game and I do ok with that in terms of guessing just H/D/As I've got a 48.2% strike-rate.

The top guy has a 51.3% strike-rate. But position isn't just by strike-rate because the big scores come from exact predictions.

I've got 6.7% exacts to date.

The top guys for exacts have 9.3% 'hits'.

I think they're quite good.



Professional cretin.


Isaac
Man City Transfer Target!

Jan 23, 2013, 2:40 PM

Posts: 9632
Location: Kent
Team(s): ABMU

Post #9 of 16 (2526 views)
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Re: [LondonBuck] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To
Football is so unpredictable I would never even think of betting on it Crazy




Very wise, that said I do have a little flutter now and again, just a few quid that I'd probably otherwise put on the lottery.


(This post was edited by Isaac on Jan 23, 2013, 2:58 PM)


LondonBuck
Chelsea Transfer Target


Jan 23, 2013, 2:57 PM

Posts: 4027
Location: East London
Team(s): AFC Telford United, Witham Town, Folkestone Invicta, Gillingham, Woking

Post #10 of 16 (2520 views)
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Re: [Isaac] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
Football is so unpredictable I would never even think of betting on it Crazy




Very wise, that said I do have a little flutter now and again, just a few quid that I'd probably otherwise put on the lottery.

Good job I was sitting down when I read that! I think someone just agreed with me Shocked



637 GROUNDS - AFC Fylde(61/92)
582 WETHERSPOONS - Lytham
2 WETHERSPOONS HOTELS - Ripon


Isaac
Man City Transfer Target!

Jan 23, 2013, 2:59 PM

Posts: 9632
Location: Kent
Team(s): ABMU

Post #11 of 16 (2516 views)
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Re: [LondonBuck] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Football is so unpredictable I would never even think of betting on it Crazy




Very wise, that said I do have a little flutter now and again, just a few quid that I'd probably otherwise put on the lottery.

Good job I was sitting down when I read that! I think someone just agreed with me Shocked




Well sort of, although being the last of the big spenders I have just put 1 on Chelsea to win 1-5 at Swansea tonight at 100-1


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 23, 2013, 4:00 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #12 of 16 (2501 views)
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Re: [Isaac] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Is that an insider-tip mate?



Professional cretin.


Isaac
Man City Transfer Target!

Jan 23, 2013, 4:08 PM

Posts: 9632
Location: Kent
Team(s): ABMU

Post #13 of 16 (2498 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Is that an insider-tip mate?


I'm.afraid not, but more chance of that happening than me hitting the lotto jackpot


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 23, 2013, 6:14 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #14 of 16 (2480 views)
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Re: [Isaac] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Just using-up the tail of yesterday's stake with a little treble/patent @ 1.49/80p

Chelmsford City @ 5/6 v Eastbourne Borough
Corby Town @ 5/4 v Solihull Moors
Draw @ 13/5 Swansea v Chelsea

Could get about 55 for the 7.09, so teensy money this time.



Professional cretin.


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Jan 23, 2013, 10:12 PM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #15 of 16 (2453 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Just using-up the tail of yesterday's stake with a little treble/patent @ 1.49/80p

Chelmsford City @ 5/6 v Eastbourne Borough
Corby Town @ 5/4 v Solihull Moors
Draw @ 13/5 Swansea v Chelsea

Could get about 55 for the 7.09, so teensy money this time.


Got my draw, which was the hard bit I think and it looks like the other two were voids. Ergo, a return of 19.26.

Don't know if the voids will get played within 24 hrs. tho'



Professional cretin.


Mister TwoU
First Team Star


Feb 25, 2013, 9:23 AM

Posts: 2489
Location: Malvern exile.
Team(s): Malvern Town F,C,

Post #16 of 16 (2103 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] Fluttering [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

130-odd for 15 at the weekend!

4-way acca on Man. C., Toon, Swans & Bluebirds - with backing double on latter pairing.

That'll keep me in stakes for rest of the season!



Professional cretin.

 
 


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