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Shock General Election Called

 

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Richard Rundle
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Nov 7, 2017, 10:09 PM

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Post #1601 of 1627 (1923 views)
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Re: [jrev61] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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lection, the Tories would have had a majority, with 80 seats more than Labour. Although the number of seats in Scotland is being reduced, the same does not apply to Northern Ireland. I wonder why!


Because N Ireland wasn't mathematically over-represented already. It does lose one seat in the review (dropping from 18 to 17). The proposed new boundaries in NI haven't been published yet, they're bound to cause accusations of gerrymandering from one side or the other.

Comparing the 2 in the new proposals, Scotland has about 3 times the population of NI (5.4m to 1.8m) and about 3 times the seats (53 to 17)


garethwrexy
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Post #1602 of 1627 (1770 views)
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Re: [jrev61] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Thought boundarie changes were on hold



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Richard Rundle
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Nov 10, 2017, 1:07 PM

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Post #1603 of 1627 (1698 views)
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Re: [garethwrexy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Thought boundarie changes were on hold


Kinda sortof.

The various Boundary Commissions are still ploughing on with recommendations and proposals because they haven't been told to stop. However, it seems to me very unlikely at the moment that any set of proposals would command a majority in the House of Commons.


Part-Timer
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Post #1604 of 1627 (1681 views)
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Re: [Richard Rundle] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To
Thought boundarie changes were on hold


Kinda sortof.

The various Boundary Commissions are still ploughing on with recommendations and proposals because they haven't been told to stop. However, it seems to me very unlikely at the moment that any set of proposals would command a majority in the House of Commons.

It is an absolute farce that the Commons votes on boundary changes. Its members clearly have a vested interest. The Boundary Commission should be made independent in the same way that the Bank of England was rather than being an advisory body. It should have statutory powers to decide the parliamentary boundaries, ideally based on some form of logic rather than historical precedent.


007Dale
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Nov 10, 2017, 2:20 PM

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Post #1605 of 1627 (1672 views)
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Re: [Part-Timer] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Thought boundarie changes were on hold


Kinda sortof.

The various Boundary Commissions are still ploughing on with recommendations and proposals because they haven't been told to stop. However, it seems to me very unlikely at the moment that any set of proposals would command a majority in the House of Commons.

It is an absolute farce that the Commons votes on boundary changes. Its members clearly have a vested interest. The Boundary Commission should be made independent in the same way that the Bank of England was rather than being an advisory body. It should have statutory powers to decide the parliamentary boundaries, ideally based on some form of logic rather than historical precedent.


Agree with this. Also agree with equalised constituencies, doesn't make sense some are larger than others.

The independent element is key to ensuring the boundaries aren't fudged to favour one party over another. I think presently they favour Labour, but could be wrong on that.


leohoenig
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Nov 10, 2017, 2:36 PM

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Post #1606 of 1627 (1663 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com


Fanatic
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Nov 10, 2017, 3:21 PM

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Post #1607 of 1627 (1646 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country


Quite. Best to have fixed boundaries but with larger multi-member constituencies that elect numerous MPs by open list proportional representation, with the number dependent on population.

County boundaries would be a good starting point as they are well recognised unlike many parliamentary constituencies which are very strange combinations of places.


(This post was edited by Fanatic on Nov 10, 2017, 3:22 PM)


garethwrexy
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Nov 10, 2017, 5:30 PM

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Post #1608 of 1627 (1616 views)
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Re: [Richard Rundle] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Think Corbyn seat could be on change list



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007Dale
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Nov 10, 2017, 6:54 PM

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Post #1609 of 1627 (1601 views)
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Re: [Fanatic] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country


Quite. Best to have fixed boundaries but with larger multi-member constituencies that elect numerous MPs by open list proportional representation, with the number dependent on population.

County boundaries would be a good starting point as they are well recognised unlike many parliamentary constituencies which are very strange combinations of places.


Yes, I think I could buy-in to that approach. The number of seats per county reflecting the population, so the broadly each vote has equal weight throughout the country.

Some sort of PR is the way forward.


PaulC
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Nov 10, 2017, 9:18 PM

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Post #1610 of 1627 (1575 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country

If only Westminster would follow the Scottish lead. Here we have an effective and representative electoral system.

The best thing that could happen to UK politics would be perpetual coalition/minority government.


Tykeoldboy
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Nov 10, 2017, 11:32 PM

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Post #1611 of 1627 (1546 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To
For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country

If only Westminster would follow the Scottish lead. Here we have an effective and representative electoral system.

The best thing that could happen to UK politics would be perpetual coalition/minority government.


It's worked well in Germany for 60 years


007Dale
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Nov 11, 2017, 3:43 AM

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Post #1612 of 1627 (1514 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To
For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country

If only Westminster would follow the Scottish lead. Here we have an effective and representative electoral system.

The best thing that could happen to UK politics would be perpetual coalition/minority government.


Haven't we had that for two of the last three Governments?


PaulC
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Nov 11, 2017, 7:24 AM

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Post #1613 of 1627 (1491 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To

In Reply To
For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country

If only Westminster would follow the Scottish lead. Here we have an effective and representative electoral system.

The best thing that could happen to UK politics would be perpetual coalition/minority government.


Haven't we had that for two of the last three Governments?


But not one based on PR - just one with Tories marginally short of a Parliamentary majority whilst well short of a majority in the popular vote. Even so there's no doubt the LibDems moderated the more extreme parts of the Tory agenda.


Mr. T
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Nov 11, 2017, 11:28 AM

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Post #1614 of 1627 (1446 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Agree with this. Also agree with equalised constituencies, doesn't make sense some are larger than others.

The independent element is key to ensuring the boundaries aren't fudged to favour one party over another. I think presently they favour Labour, but could be wrong on that.


Boundary changes are intended to equalise constituency sizes. The 2011 Act (never enacted) prescribed a figure of 76,641 +/- 5%.

The charge that Labour was favoured for a while was partly true because it won three successive elections with a much lower average vote per seat than the Tories, though this said as much about the state of the latter as it did about the smaller electorates in some Labour seats.

In all of the last nine elections in which a party has won an outright majority it has done so with a smaller average per seat than the losing party. Differences below:
1974_L__1,855
1979_C__2,384
1983_C__7,687
1987_C__7,201
1992_C__1,165
1997_L_23,805
2001_L_24,379
2005_L_17,640
2015_C__5,943


(This post was edited by Mr. T on Nov 11, 2017, 11:30 AM)


Mr. T
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Post #1615 of 1627 (1439 views)
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Re: [leohoenig] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP [43,122 excl. the Speaker]
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP [49,154]
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP [27,390]
For the Liberals, 169,659


Permit me to correct these, though your point is still made.

This year's election differed from the previous two hung parliaments in that the largest party in terms of seats had a lower average than the next biggest.


garethwrexy
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Nov 11, 2017, 3:12 PM

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Post #1616 of 1627 (1408 views)
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Anyone think liberal vote will go up at next election



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dottirofhod
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Nov 11, 2017, 4:02 PM

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Post #1617 of 1627 (1403 views)
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No.
Half time here, 1-0.




July 1, 2018 to June 30,2019 = 138/ 114 / 24(You know my rules) @ 13 /12 /2018.(Only 10 x 0-0's)

Project TFTTUEFAG's2018/19. Clubs 712.Grounds (Variable).
Need - 108 ( 15.2%).



garethwrexy
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Nov 11, 2017, 5:44 PM

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Post #1618 of 1627 (1378 views)
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If goes down I would fear for the future of the lib dems



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Part-Timer
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Nov 11, 2017, 8:57 PM

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Post #1619 of 1627 (1340 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
For every 41,421 people that voted Conservative, we got one Tory MP
For every 55,511 people that voted Labour, we got one Labour MP
For the SNP it required only 17,456 voters per MP
For the Liberals, 169,659

No manner of boundary changes are going to actually make the system reflect the opinions of the country


Quite. Best to have fixed boundaries but with larger multi-member constituencies that elect numerous MPs by open list proportional representation, with the number dependent on population.

County boundaries would be a good starting point as they are well recognised unlike many parliamentary constituencies which are very strange combinations of places.


Yes, I think I could buy-in to that approach. The number of seats per county reflecting the population, so the broadly each vote has equal weight throughout the country.

It would go down well in Rutland. Perhaps they could promise only to elect a very small person to represent them. Tongue


jrev61
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Anyone think liberal vote will go up at next election


If the Tories carry on as they are at the moment, the LD should pick up votes from people who are disillusioned with Theresa May's shambolic party but who would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn or the Labour Party.
I see no reason that the LD shouldn't win back some of the seats they held prior to 2015. In most of these seats Labour cannot win so many Labour voters will vote tactical.



jrev61


windydcfc
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Post #1621 of 1627 (1268 views)
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In Reply To
Anyone think liberal vote will go up at next election


If the Tories carry on as they are at the moment, the LD should pick up votes from people who are disillusioned with Theresa May's shambolic party but who would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn or the Labour Party.
I see no reason that the LD shouldn't win back some of the seats they held prior to 2015. In most of these seats Labour cannot win so many Labour voters will vote tactical.



Didn't the Labour Party nearly win seats off the Tories in the traditional LD areas in the southwest? So if they've lost there core support & specifically the young voters, how can the possibility bounce back? Aren't the LD's on about 7% in the polls?


garethwrexy
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Nov 12, 2017, 2:38 PM

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Post #1622 of 1627 (1215 views)
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Re: [jrev61] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Take Richmond park goldsmith majority is 45 that be a key battleground seat next time



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jrev61
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Re: [windydcfc] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To

In Reply To
Anyone think liberal vote will go up at next election


If the Tories carry on as they are at the moment, the LD should pick up votes from people who are disillusioned with Theresa May's shambolic party but who would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn or the Labour Party.
I see no reason that the LD shouldn't win back some of the seats they held prior to 2015. In most of these seats Labour cannot win so many Labour voters will vote tactical.



Didn't the Labour Party nearly win seats off the Tories in the traditional LD areas in the southwest? So if they've lost there core support & specifically the young voters, how can the possibility bounce back? Aren't the LD's on about 7% in the polls?


Due to tactical voting the Liberal Democrats do not need to get more than 7% nationwide to win seats from the Tories. Not all seats in the South West have large LD support. The more urban areas Exeter, Plymouth etc. are usually contested between Labour and the Tories. The Liberals held seats all over the country before 2015 including the major cities.



jrev61


windydcfc
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Post #1624 of 1627 (1090 views)
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In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To

In Reply To
Anyone think liberal vote will go up at next election


If the Tories carry on as they are at the moment, the LD should pick up votes from people who are disillusioned with Theresa May's shambolic party but who would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn or the Labour Party.
I see no reason that the LD shouldn't win back some of the seats they held prior to 2015. In most of these seats Labour cannot win so many Labour voters will vote tactical.



Didn't the Labour Party nearly win seats off the Tories in the traditional LD areas in the southwest? So if they've lost there core support & specifically the young voters, how can the possibility bounce back? Aren't the LD's on about 7% in the polls?


Due to tactical voting the Liberal Democrats do not need to get more than 7% nationwide to win seats from the Tories. Not all seats in the South West have large LD support. The more urban areas Exeter, Plymouth etc. are usually contested between Labour and the Tories. The Liberals held seats all over the country before 2015 including the major cities.



A lot of those major cities have a large Uni student community. The student community have turned there backs on the LD's. I'm sure if the LD's could turns the clocks back then they would & that would be prior to the pact with the Tories.


garethwrexy
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Nov 13, 2017, 8:54 PM

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Post #1625 of 1627 (1056 views)
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Re: [windydcfc] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Lib dems need to be careful, this anti Brexit stuff could put voters off them



wrexham fc fa trophy winners 2013 !

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