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Shock General Election Called

 

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justAndy
Youth Team Regular

Jun 12, 2017, 10:30 PM

Posts: 197
Location: Derby
Team(s): Derby County, with a chunk of my heart still following Hucknall

Post #1426 of 1627 (1957 views)
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Re: [Fanatic] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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By your argument there'll by default be a majority against anyone as PM unless one party gets an absolute majority. That seems a flawed premis to me.
.


In 1997 Tony Blair won a massive landslide, over 400 seats, gaining 43.2% of the vote, so the majority of voters were against the PM

Ditto Thatcher in 83 and 87 - not sure when, if ever anyone has won more than 50% of the vote, cannot be bothered to look. So yes


You must realise there's a difference here, unless you really are on the wind up?

The difference between those two cases is that the Lib Dems would have sided with Labour in 1997 if somehow it had ended up in a hung parliament.

Similarly the Liberal/SDP alliance would have probably sided with Labour in 1987. Not sure what would have happened in 1983.


No, I have said the majority of voters were against the PM, not who would have supported who in a hung parliament, i actually tried to use 3 elections where a clear majority of MP's was won, but the winning party still only managed 43% of the vote, so, the majority of voters voted against the PM. In 1931 55.5% of the voters voted for the Tory party, so on that occasion, the majority of voters voted for the PM........


Fanatic
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Jun 12, 2017, 10:35 PM

Posts: 2409
Location: Aldgate
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Post #1427 of 1627 (1953 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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No, I have said the majority of voters were against the PM, not who would have supported who in a hung parliament, i actually tried to use 3 elections where a clear majority of MP's was won, but the winning party still only managed 43% of the vote, so, the majority of voters voted against the PM. In 1931 55.5% of the voters voted for the Tory party, so on that occasion, the majority of voters voted for the PM........


I still don't think you understand the concept of voting for a smaller party but still being happy with (or actively hoping for) the leader of a larger party forming the government.

I voted Green in 2015 but I wanted Ed Milliband to become PM. My vote for the Greens was not a vote against him - I might have voted differently if I was living in a swing seat.


justAndy
Youth Team Regular

Jun 12, 2017, 10:42 PM

Posts: 197
Location: Derby
Team(s): Derby County, with a chunk of my heart still following Hucknall

Post #1428 of 1627 (1947 views)
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Re: [Fanatic] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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No, I have said the majority of voters were against the PM, not who would have supported who in a hung parliament, i actually tried to use 3 elections where a clear majority of MP's was won, but the winning party still only managed 43% of the vote, so, the majority of voters voted against the PM. In 1931 55.5% of the voters voted for the Tory party, so on that occasion, the majority of voters voted for the PM........


I still don't think you understand the concept of voting for a smaller party but still being happy with (or actively hoping for) the leader of a larger party forming the government.

I voted Green in 2015 but I wanted Ed Milliband to become PM. My vote for the Greens was not a vote against him - I might have voted differently if I was living in a swing seat.


Yes, i do understand the concept,but as i said earlier, until you can put an x against 'hope' it does not matter. By voting green and not labour you voted against Milliband. I appreciate you didnt vote 'For' the Tories, and somehow thought your tactical vote would have an impact, but FPTP does not work like that.

You cannot even pretend to guess who hundreds of thousands of voters 'hope' will win. Hard enough trying to get opinion polls to agree on a winner, let alone who might come further down the order

When/If we ever get a version of PR for the National election then this argument becomes void - until then, the maths is there, the majority of voters do not vote for the PM


PaulC
Man City Transfer Target!


Jun 12, 2017, 10:47 PM

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Post #1429 of 1627 (1943 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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They/She made the mistake of actually believing what was written in the papers, schoolboy error


A bit like a fair proportion of the electorate.


Fanatic
First Team Star


Jun 12, 2017, 10:51 PM

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Post #1430 of 1627 (1937 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Yes, i do understand the concept,but as i said earlier, until you can put an x against 'hope' it does not matter. By voting green and not labour you voted against Milliband. I appreciate you didnt vote 'For' the Tories, and somehow thought your tactical vote would have an impact, but FPTP does not work like that.


Not sure how voting Green in a safe Labour seat was a tactical vote...


PaulC
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Jun 12, 2017, 10:56 PM

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Post #1431 of 1627 (1932 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In 1931 55.5% of the voters voted for the Tory party, so on that occasion, the majority of voters voted for the PM........


LOL!

The Tories were elected as part of a National Government. The Labour leader, Ramsey MacDonald, became the Prime Minister.

Perhaps we should have another National Government, with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm.


(This post was edited by PaulC on Jun 12, 2017, 10:59 PM)


Climate Change
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Jun 12, 2017, 11:10 PM

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Post #1432 of 1627 (1915 views)
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Re: [Fanatic] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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I voted Green in 2015 but I wanted Ed Milliband to become PM.


Bit like football.....I support Rochdale but want Arsenal to win the cup.

PS I don't really support Rochdale.



I don't need Google. I have a Hoddy.

(This post was edited by Climate Change on Jun 12, 2017, 11:14 PM)


MrTangerineMan
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Jun 12, 2017, 11:17 PM

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Post #1433 of 1627 (1908 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Andy, you're never going to convince these two that they are wrong - they aren't interested in debate, only what they want to hear in their echo-chambers.

People like them are the reason why there is no proper debate anymore about politics; they want to shut down debate and any statements which they don't agree with irrespective of how much truth or merit they contain.

At least they didn't win at the Ballot Box. Maybe next time people will actually vote for the person they want to win - if you want Brexit then vote Tories (in the absence of a credible alternative) and if you don't want Brexit then do not split the vote - agree on one party to back as the anti-Brexit party and vote for them. We're back to the two party system pretty much anyway.

On to October/November and the chance to do it all again, lucky us!


PaulC
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Jun 12, 2017, 11:36 PM

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Post #1434 of 1627 (1894 views)
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Re: [MrTangerineMan] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Andy, you're never going to convince these two that they are wrong - they aren't interested in debate, only what they want to hear in their echo-chambers.

People like them are the reason why there is no proper debate anymore about politics; they want to shut down debate and any statements which they don't agree with irrespective of how much truth or merit they contain.


How very dare they have a different opinion!

How dare they shut down debate.

Oh, hang on, how did they do that?


(This post was edited by PaulC on Jun 12, 2017, 11:39 PM)


PaulC
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Jun 12, 2017, 11:37 PM

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Post #1435 of 1627 (1890 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

"Might as well pick someone at random out of the Yellow Pages to lead Brexit rather than the incompetent Theresa May,"

Simon Shama, Newsnight


Ronsdog
First Team Star


Jun 12, 2017, 11:39 PM

Posts: 2346
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Post #1436 of 1627 (1889 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In 1931 55.5% of the voters voted for the Tory party, so on that occasion, the majority of voters voted for the PM........


LOL!

The Tories were elected as part of a National Government. The Labour leader, Ramsey MacDonald, became the Prime Minister.

Perhaps we should have another National Government, with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm.




1931 National Government 55% of the total vote.

Since then, for a variety of reasons, not one government has achieved a majority of the total vote. Eden came close in 1955.

1945 Attlee 48%
1950 Attlee 46%
1951 Churchill 48%
1955 Eden. 49.7%
1966 Wilson 48%
1979 Thatcher 44%
1997 Blair 43%
2001 Blair 40.7%
2005 Blair 35%
2010 Cameron 36%
2015 Cameron 37%

Turnout was generally higher in 20th Century than it is now. 70% plus.
Of course back in the day the 'yoof vote' was prized and fought for. Until the recent contest it had been neglected by both parties.

In the 21st Century we have not seen a 70% turnout. 2001 59.4% low point. 2015 66.4%
And currently we 'enjoy' a multi party system which goes some way to explaining the dip in the victors %.

Other than being simply a statistic post I would add this......there is probably a majority in Parliament from both sides of the chamber that now support a softer Brexit and will likely pursue it ........as will some on the EU side.

The Lib Dems will be quite buoyed by this current turn of events. Wink


(This post was edited by Ronsdog on Jun 12, 2017, 11:44 PM)


PaulC
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Jun 12, 2017, 11:45 PM

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Post #1437 of 1627 (1881 views)
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Re: [Ronsdog] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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[

Other than being simply a statistic post I would add this......there is probably a majority in Parliament from both sides of the chamber that now support a softer Brexit........as do some in Europe.


The HoL can now just blow Brexit out of the water.

Because there is no majority government they do not need to observe the Salisbury convention which requires them not to vote against 2nd/3rd readings of bills covered in the governing party's manifesto.

The best Theresa May can do is ask for our Article 50 letter back.Smile


Ronsdog
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Jun 13, 2017, 12:04 AM

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Post #1438 of 1627 (1875 views)
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Re: [PaulC] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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[


The HoL can now just blow Brexit out of the water.

Because there is no majority government they do not need to observe the Salisbury convention which requires them not to vote against 2nd/3rd readings of bills covered in the governing party's manifesto.

The best Theresa May can do is ask for our Article 50 letter back.Smile


In my view that's unlikely.

If as has been rumoured, there are now cross party discussions on the Brexit issue, I wouldn't be surprised or dissapointed, if Keir Starmer is co-opted or in close touch with the negotiating team.

But Brexit, whichever form it takes, will happen.


leohoenig
Administrator

Jun 13, 2017, 12:16 AM

Posts: 12590
Location: Outer Cheltenhamshire
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Post #1439 of 1627 (1865 views)
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Re: [MrTangerineMan] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

What this thread has shown in particular is the three types of lie, in detail
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

1) Lies - what we are told by politicians
2) Damned Lies - what the press tells us about politicians
3) Statistics - the warping of facts by posters in this thread, to suit their own choice of which lies, or damned lies they want you to believe.



Fat AND Pompous.
The proof that you can have too much of a good thing
Now blogging at http://www.leohoenig.com


Fanatic
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Jun 13, 2017, 12:21 AM

Posts: 2409
Location: Aldgate
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Post #1440 of 1627 (1862 views)
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Re: [MrTangerineMan] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Andy, you're never going to convince these two that they are wrong - they aren't interested in debate, only what they want to hear in their echo-chambers.

People like them are the reason why there is no proper debate anymore about politics; they want to shut down debate and any statements which they don't agree with irrespective of how much truth or merit they contain.

At least they didn't win at the Ballot Box. Maybe next time people will actually vote for the person they want to win - if you want Brexit then vote Tories (in the absence of a credible alternative) and if you don't want Brexit then do not split the vote - agree on one party to back as the anti-Brexit party and vote for them. We're back to the two party system pretty much anyway.

On to October/November and the chance to do it all again, lucky us!


I really don"t understand why you have to be so sanctomonius. Firstly I've been happy to debate politely throughout this thread using facts and evidence and haven't sought to shut down anything or anyone. Secondly, if I wanted an echo chamber, I'd be on Facebook, but instead I'm on here engaging with people with a wide range of views.


MrTangerineMan
Reserve Team Regular


Jun 13, 2017, 1:00 AM

Posts: 694
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Post #1441 of 1627 (1842 views)
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Re: [Fanatic] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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In Reply To
Andy, you're never going to convince these two that they are wrong - they aren't interested in debate, only what they want to hear in their echo-chambers.

People like them are the reason why there is no proper debate anymore about politics; they want to shut down debate and any statements which they don't agree with irrespective of how much truth or merit they contain.

At least they didn't win at the Ballot Box. Maybe next time people will actually vote for the person they want to win - if you want Brexit then vote Tories (in the absence of a credible alternative) and if you don't want Brexit then do not split the vote - agree on one party to back as the anti-Brexit party and vote for them. We're back to the two party system pretty much anyway.

On to October/November and the chance to do it all again, lucky us!


I really don"t understand why you have to be so sanctomonius. Firstly I've been happy to debate politely throughout this thread using facts and evidence and haven't sought to shut down anything or anyone. Secondly, if I wanted an echo chamber, I'd be on Facebook, but instead I'm on here engaging with people with a wide range of views.


Really, well if I am sanctimonious then it is a term I will accept without crying off to a Moderator or demand an apology for Wink

To give you credit, Fanatic, you can at least be sensible - PaulC is little more than a click-baiter who is not interested at all in fair discussion so in the future I'll just ignore whatever rhetoric and heard-it-all-before-BS comments he comes up with.

PaulC made a comment a while back about my best interests which I admit did stick in the craw a bit - why assume what my best interests are, Paul doesn't know me or what things I want. The same as I don't know the things Paul wants, but I would never tell him which way to vote because I deem it worthy.

If I was to ask everybody on this thread five things which were in their interest, I bet you that none of us would agree on them. PaulC seems to think (or at least this is my understanding) that if we don't agree with him we are wrong and must be browbeaten or chided.

The five things that are in my interest:

1. Seeing Brexit through, whatever happens
2. Working towards full employment for people and giving them a fair wage for a day's work
3. Investing in Tesla technologies and green industries and electricity
4. Eradicate homelessness, poverty, prostitution (especially child prostitution and exploitation), drugs and social disorder
5. Work towards eliminating cancer, AIDS and heart failure

Now I am sure that your five interests will be as good as mine, and who am I to browbeat or demand that you change them so that you fit in with what I want? Who made me Emperor, or PaulC or anybody else for that matter?


(This post was edited by MrTangerineMan on Jun 13, 2017, 4:22 AM)


dottirofhod
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Jun 13, 2017, 4:17 AM

Posts: 12886
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Post #1442 of 1627 (1823 views)
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Re: [MrTangerineMan] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Now I am sure that your five interests will be as good as mine, and who am I to browbeat or demand that you change them so that you fit in with what I want? Who made me Emperor, or PaulC or anybody else for that matter?
=========================================================

I hearby anoint you as Emperor.
Some of this will help =
========================================================





July 1, 2018 to June 30,2019 = 120 / 98 / 22(You know my rules) @ 19 /11 /2018.(Only 8 x 0-0's)
Benelux. Bel = 0-0-0- ( 0-0-0 ) - ( 5-0-0-1 ) Lux = 0-0. Neth = 0-0-0 - ( 2 - 1 ).
Scotland Senior 0-0-0-0-(0-0)-EastofS -1 NofS 0 - SouthofS -2 - Junior (0-0-0)-(0-0-1-0)-(0-0)-(0).
N I = 0-0-5. ROI =0-0-( Leinster-2 , Munster-2, Ulster -0.) Wales =0- (0-0).
Scan Den=1-1, Faroes=8, Fin=0-2, Ice=0-3, Nor=0-9, Swe=0-1. Baltics Est= 0, Lat= 2, Lith=1.


(This post was edited by dottirofhod on Jun 13, 2017, 4:18 AM)


MrTangerineMan
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Jun 13, 2017, 4:22 AM

Posts: 694
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Post #1443 of 1627 (1819 views)
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Re: [dottirofhod] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

Now THAT is a brilliant post, thank you dottirofhod!


prorege
Man City Transfer Target!


Jun 13, 2017, 7:31 AM

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Post #1444 of 1627 (1765 views)
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Re: [justAndy] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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No, not 'people', but a couple of blokes on a football forum -


If you think the views of blokes on a football are not worth listening to, I wonder why you signed up to one to blather on about the General Election. Have you actually made a post about football on here ?


I did not say that, more nonsense. You said 'people' as if it was everyone, in my opinion. Sorry, didnt realise i needed your permission to post, sorry sir. And yes, i have posted about football, sir not that it has any relevance here sir, very sorry sir..........sheesh


Must be under a different username if you have posted about football.


Oh dear, the forum police are here - look under 'ground moves', link to Hucknall.

Didn't realise i needed to post proof, dearie dearie me - Do i have to post my non-league credentials somewhere ? No one told me

Again - sheesh

Post #116 of the ground moves 2017/18 thread, if it matters that much

My apologies, I was wrong. 1 post out of 120 has been about football. Jings.




jon b
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Jun 13, 2017, 7:53 AM

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Post #1445 of 1627 (1751 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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I think that we'll see a Queens Speech pass, a gentle budget get through, the Brexit negotiations start and then at some point in the next six months she'll stand down.

If not, the first by-Election will be a huge problem for her. I then suspect Boris will call a GE for Spring 2018.


Another early GE? The electorate will love that. I'm not sure the Tories would be brave enough to try their luck that way again even with Bozza the Clown fronting it.


jon b
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Jun 13, 2017, 8:03 AM

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Post #1446 of 1627 (1746 views)
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Re: [MrTangerineMan] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Anyway, Wee Jimmy Krankie took something of a pasting, so that has definitely made me chortle. Plus the fact that the militant left has also help to move the Tories even further right into an alliance with the DUP - a big whoops moment there!

Laugh


My worry is that a Government having to rely on DUP support to survive could be seen as favouring the Loyalists over the other parties in N Ireland. Given the already fragile state of power sharing that is a frightening development.

If the peace process goes off the rails……….


007Dale
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Jun 13, 2017, 8:48 AM

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Post #1447 of 1627 (1730 views)
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I think that we'll see a Queens Speech pass, a gentle budget get through, the Brexit negotiations start and then at some point in the next six months she'll stand down.

If not, the first by-Election will be a huge problem for her. I then suspect Boris will call a GE for Spring 2018.


Another early GE? The electorate will love that. I'm not sure the Tories would be brave enough to try their luck that way again even with Bozza the Clown fronting it.


Well, I can't see the Government lasting five years. With the DUP the working Majority will be 12 (328 vs 322 excluding SF). A couple of adverse by-elections and a disgruntled Tory MP here or there and the pain of holding out won't be worth it.

Plus, the temporary Corbyn bubble will burst at some point. Everyone has conveniently forgotten the bitter in-fighting that happened amongst the parliamentary Labour Party. I can't believe they'll keep being good boys and girls indefinitely. Especially when they sober up and realise they didn't win the election, or even come close to it.


PaulC
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Jun 13, 2017, 8:56 AM

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Post #1448 of 1627 (1724 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately


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Plus, the temporary Corbyn bubble will burst at some point. Everyone has conveniently forgotten the bitter in-fighting that happened amongst the parliamentary Labour Party. I can't believe they'll keep being good boys and girls indefinitely. Especially when they sober up and realise they didn't win the election, or even come close to it.


Just wait till you see the bitter in-fighting in the Tory party as Brexit implodes!

Pass the popcorn.


(This post was edited by PaulC on Jun 13, 2017, 8:57 AM)


007Dale
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Jun 13, 2017, 8:59 AM

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Post #1449 of 1627 (1721 views)
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Plus, the temporary Corbyn bubble will burst at some point. Everyone has conveniently forgotten the bitter in-fighting that happened amongst the parliamentary Labour Party. I can't believe they'll keep being good boys and girls indefinitely. Especially when they sober up and realise they didn't win the election, or even come close to it.


Just wait till you see the bitter in-fighting in the Tory party as Brexit implodes!

Pass the popcorn.


Exactly why I think we'll have an election sooner rather than later.


PaulC
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Jun 13, 2017, 9:23 AM

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Post #1450 of 1627 (1709 views)
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Re: [007Dale] Shock General Election Called [In reply to] Can't Post or Reply Privately

The best analysis I've read so far of the Brexit/General Election fiasco

http://www.nybooks.com/...he-end-of-a-fantasy/

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