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2012/2013 "What If"

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blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 6, 2011, 4:22 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #26 of 115 (14212 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

In Reply To

How could the Divisions look for next season. I know it's a little early but the Step 5 promotion list closes in little more than 8 weeks & I've always been interested in the "what if".

Some caveats on how I sort things out

All tables are reordered by ppg first.
Assumption that the top side qualifying for the play-offs wins the play-offs.
Step 1 to 4 - Until any club officially declines promotion, or it's announced they have failed the ground grading all clubs are opted in to promotion.
Step 3 - I believe Cambridge City's move to Newmarket is still on[?] (just not specified when) so I'm putting them in Isthmian Premier when possible in preparation.
Step 4 - I don't like cross Thames trips in the Isthmian so all the Kent clubs are placed in IL 1(S) and the Thames will be the boundary between N & S wherever possible.
Step 4 - Goole and Brigg are farther north than some of the NW sides in NPL 1(N) so they will be switched with them. This also means it's twice less the NE sides would have to go to Cheshire.
Step 5 - Until full list of promotion applicants and ground gradings are known all Step 5 clubs are "opted in" to the promotion process to Step 4.

The full spreadsheet can be viewed in google docs here - https://docs.google.com/...c&hl=en_US#gid=0.

I'll try and keep the spreadsheet up dated at least every other week. Sorry but I've currently got no way of posting the more visually informative maps on the web at the moment.

Updated to reflect tables after matches on Saturday 5th November. Comments & corrections all welcome.

After the previous comments about Hendon's willingness to take promotion should it be won this time an extra caveat has been added to the list.

Northwood, Threave Rovers, Arsenal, Watford, Rochdale, Rangers (the real ones, NOT qpr), queen of the south and a few others.

Pyramid Allocations for the 2013/14 season as published by the FA on May 17th http://bit.ly/18QoFvt
How I would've allocated the clubs for 2013/14 http://bit.ly/OS8GoJ

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 7, 2011, 4:30 AM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #27 of 115 (14153 views)
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Re: [Mister TwoU] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Quote

Can you not draw them up in Google maps and post the links?

Not got the Google Maps thing sorted but I've uploaded the Autoroute graphics to my photo-bucket account and have coded to the pics, Steps 1 to 4 in order;

[/img]

[/img]

I hope this sort of linking doesn't give the mods to much of a headache!!

chienmort
Reserve Team Regular

Nov 7, 2011, 10:36 AM

Posts: 662
Location: Poole
Team(s): Poole Town FC, Queens Park RANGERS.

Post #28 of 115 (14127 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

What is clear are the big areas where there is a dearth of teams at some levels in some areas. Quite an eye opener.

Poole Town FC - les couilles du chien

acmold
Man City Transfer Target!

Nov 8, 2011, 9:42 AM

Posts: 8098
Location:
Team(s):

Post #29 of 115 (14009 views)
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Re: [chienmort] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Quite interesting that split on the map, we have 24 south of the servern / wash line and 19 north of it, plus Newport. Both Oxford and Cambridge are quite near the line and with the slight population inbalance between the north and south it is now far from balancing. Travelling wise all the three clubs have good raod links to go north in fact Oxford City would actually have quite a few localish games.

Each section has one club out on a limb, the north has huddles of clubs in two sections while the south has one around London.

Looking quickly at the 44 clubs the Southern League seems to be the relevant step 3 league for highest number of clubs, followed by the Isthmian and then the NPL.

I'm adored in Augsburg

chienmort
Reserve Team Regular

Nov 8, 2011, 6:20 PM

Posts: 662
Location: Poole
Team(s): Poole Town FC, Queens Park RANGERS.

Post #30 of 115 (13926 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

I cannot see a Red Dot for AFC Totton on the Step 3 Map.

Poole Town FC - les couilles du chien

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 8, 2011, 6:34 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #31 of 115 (13924 views)
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Re: [chienmort] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Quote

I cannot see a Red Dot for AFC Totton on the Step 3 Map.

Possibly because it's on the Step 2 map in Conference South!! The excel/google spreadsheet wasn't used to make these graphics, the graphics came from the MS Autoroute files that were used to create the excel/google spreadsheet.

chienmort
Reserve Team Regular

Nov 9, 2011, 2:23 PM

Posts: 662
Location: Poole
Team(s): Poole Town FC, Queens Park RANGERS.

Post #32 of 115 (13817 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Sorry had a brainstorm. Good work.

Poole Town FC - les couilles du chien

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 9, 2011, 4:39 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #33 of 115 (13798 views)
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Re: [chienmort] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

No Problem and Thanks!!

forestman
Youth Team Star

Nov 17, 2011, 5:50 AM

Posts: 378
Location:
Team(s):

Post #34 of 115 (13554 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

aaahhh its been updated, still weas nice seeing Waltham Forest included in the Ryman Premier Division, if only for a short while.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 17, 2011, 2:15 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #35 of 115 (13489 views)
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Re: [forestman] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

As it's Vase weekend and all Steps 1>4 are in league action I'll put a new version up Sunday sometime.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 22, 2011, 7:52 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #36 of 115 (13305 views)
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Re: [forestman] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

In Reply To

All tables are reordered by ppg first.
Assumption that the top side qualifying for the play-offs wins the play-offs.
Step 1 to 4 - Until any club officially declines promotion, or it's announced they have failed the ground grading all clubs are opted in to promotion.
Step 3 - I believe Cambridge City's move to Newmarket is still on[?] (just not specified when) so I'm putting them in Isthmian Premier when possible in preparation.
Step 4 - I don't like cross Thames trips in the Isthmian so all the Kent clubs are placed in IL 1(S) and the Thames will be the boundary between N & S wherever possible.
Step 4 - Goole and Brigg are farther north than some of the NW sides in NPL 1(N) so they will be switched with them. This also means it's twice less the NE sides would have to go to Cheshire.
Step 5 - Until full list of promotion applicants and ground gradings are known all Step 5 clubs are "opted in" to the promotion process to Step 4.

The full spreadsheet can be viewed in google docs here - https://docs.google.com/...c&hl=en_US#gid=0.

Updated in relation to league positions after games on Saturday 19th November, maps to follow as there doesn't seem to have been any problems last time.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Nov 22, 2011, 8:11 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #37 of 115 (13302 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Maps for the New Projections list.

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Three Sides
Reserve Team Regular

Dec 4, 2011, 10:02 AM

Posts: 674
Location: Worcestershire
Team(s): Stourbridge

Post #38 of 115 (13095 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

PPG is an interesting thing following a cup run.....

Stourbridge having played just 1 league game in the last 14 games have fallen to 9th in the 'regular' league table. However, merely not playing has seen them rise to 2nd by PPG!

So if the "2012/2013 What if" is re-drawn before Tuesday, we could have a virtual promotion by not playing league games!

Mister TwoU
First Team Sub

Dec 4, 2011, 10:41 AM

Posts: 1156
Location: Bo'ness
Team(s): Cowdenbeath

Post #39 of 115 (13085 views)
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Re: [Three Sides] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or

Ha ha. That's common up here in the Juniors.

Ut temporibus est cum diabolus accipit renes

Still the original Paddy MacNab.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Dec 4, 2011, 8:46 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #40 of 115 (13012 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

In Reply To

All tables are reordered by ppg first.
Assumption that the top side qualifying for the play-offs wins the play-offs.
Step 1 to 4 - Until any club officially declines promotion, or it's announced they have failed the ground grading all clubs are opted in to promotion.
Step 3 - I believe Cambridge City's move to Newmarket is still on[?] (just not specified when) so I'm putting them in Isthmian Premier when possible in preparation.
Step 4 - I don't like cross Thames trips in the Isthmian so all the Kent clubs are placed in IL 1(S) and the Thames will be the boundary between N & S wherever possible.
Step 4 - Goole and Brigg are farther north than some of the NW sides in NPL 1(N) so they will be switched with them. This also means it's twice less the NE sides would have to go to Cheshire.
Step 5 - Until full list of promotion applicants and ground gradings are known all Step 5 clubs are "opted in" to the promotion process to Step 4.

The full spreadsheet can be viewed in google docs here - https://docs.google.com/...c&hl=en_US#gid=0.

Updated in relation to league positions after games on Saturday 3rd December, maps to follow as they seem to go up nicely.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Dec 4, 2011, 10:36 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #41 of 115 (13000 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

This updates maps.

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

That's it for this side of Christmas. I'll try and get an update done to reflect the post Festive Season tables 1st week into the new year.

ictoan
Reserve Team Star

Dec 4, 2011, 11:42 PM

Posts: 723
Location: By the Sea, Sussex
Team(s):

Post #42 of 115 (12987 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Looking at your maps you could almost re-organise Steps 3 & 4 by dividing the two southernmost leagues either side of the Thames Estuary and the A40. It would probably be opposed by the two leagues as they would not agree which one would be called Southern and which Isthmian.

We won't be druv.

The North begins at Gatwick.

buncranaboy
Man City Transfer Target!

Dec 4, 2011, 11:48 PM

Posts: 11604
Location: South Birmingham
Team(s): Barnstoneworth United; Bostock Stanley

Post #43 of 115 (12984 views)
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Re: [ictoan] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

In Reply To

Looking at your maps you could almost re-organise Steps 3 & 4 by dividing the two southernmost leagues either side of the Thames Estuary and the A40. It would probably be opposed by the two leagues as they would not agree which one would be called Southern and which Isthmian.

And therein lies a lot of the problem

Mister TwoU
First Team Sub

Dec 5, 2011, 1:11 PM

Posts: 1156
Location: Bo'ness
Team(s): Cowdenbeath

Post #44 of 115 (12921 views)
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Re: [buncranaboy] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or

In Reply To

Looking at your maps you could almost re-organise Steps 3 & 4 by dividing the two southernmost leagues either side of the Thames Estuary and the A40. It would probably be opposed by the two leagues as they would not agree which one would be called Southern and which Isthmian.

And therein lies a lot of the problem

Ladderman's comment?
Wink

Ut temporibus est cum diabolus accipit renes

Still the original Paddy MacNab.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Jan 12, 2012, 5:32 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #45 of 115 (11938 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

How could the Divisions look for next season.

Some caveats on how I sort things out

All tables are reordered by ppg first.
Assumption that the top side qualifying for the play-offs wins the play-offs.
Step 1 to 4 - Until any club officially declines promotion, or it's announced they have failed the ground grading all clubs are opted in to promotion.
Step 3 - I believe Cambridge City's move to Newmarket is still on[?] (just not specified when) so I'm putting them in Isthmian Premier when possible in preparation.
Step 4 - I don't like cross Thames trips in the Isthmian so all the Kent clubs are placed in IL 1(S) and the Thames will be the boundary between N & S wherever possible.
Step 4 - Goole and Brigg are farther north than some of the NW sides in NPL 1(N) so they will be switched with them. This also means it's twice less the NE sides would have to go to Cheshire.
Step 5 - Now the list of applicants is out this is taken into consideration. Clubs can be whittled down as news of ground grading is forthcoming.

The full spreadsheet can be viewed in google docs here - https://docs.google.com/...c&hl=en_US#gid=0.

Updated to include midweek's results prior to 13/01/2012.

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Jan 15, 2012, 8:05 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #46 of 115 (11709 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Updated after matches on 14/01/2012 and using VP's list of promotion applicants from Step 5. Noted, no applicants in a promotion position in the ppg tables in the Hellenic, Northern or Western Leagues.

Maps

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Capesteve
Junior Team Regular

Jan 20, 2012, 2:22 PM

Posts: 39
Location:
Team(s):

Post #47 of 115 (11493 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

This would give Bideford an average round trip of 360 miles and a total mileage of 7928. Scary stuff.....

blackdouglas
First Team Star

Jan 20, 2012, 2:25 PM

Posts: 2344
Location: Northwood, Middlesex
Team(s): See signature for clubs & 2013/14 projection links

Post #48 of 115 (11491 views)
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Re: [Capesteve] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Unfortunately there's not a lot of alternatives to the Southern Prem for Bideford should they go up.

Capesteve
Junior Team Regular

Jan 20, 2012, 2:34 PM

Posts: 39
Location:
Team(s):

Post #49 of 115 (11485 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

Yeah, I realise that but it's still scary! It's also a long, long way to go before the end of the season - lots of hard games to come yet.

wazzafan
Youth Team Star

Jan 23, 2012, 5:50 PM

Posts: 299
Location: The City of Thelwall
Team(s): Warrington Town

Post #50 of 115 (11245 views)
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Re: [blackdouglas] 2012/2013 "What If" [In reply to]	Can't Post or Reply Privately

OK, with the help of Blackdouglas, Forest Gump et al, I have managed to conduct a spreadsheet, looking at next years possible allocations step 1-4 and also step 5 without both the Sussex league and Essex league (not United Counties league) if they were to happen at the start of next season. All step 5 leagues have 23 teams with 12 relegations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApThHwWP3onIdE95WXhsQk1wSVdGUUFzS05ncVBxMmc

I have also produced a map showing the step 5 allocations. unfortunately I can't seem to be able to get all of them on one map.

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?msid=212169161359117888513.0004b647e37fa464f51a3&msa=0&ll=51.532669,-2.367554&spn=1.971663,4.938354

"2007/08 saw Warrington Town make big plans for the future with ambitions to be in the Football League within 5 years."

Five years later, and were still in the Evo-Stik North.

Non League Pyramid 2013/14: http://tinyurl.com/bzjowkf

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